Leaderboard

I personally think that the addition of KMAA to Coney Mall was a good call. It really brightens up the upper part of the mall and it adds to its nostalgia.

Heightened_imagery is the username

There's this guy on Instagram who is posting drone pictures of KI everyday. He got a close pic of Orion and I can definitely see a blue light strip similar to Fury.

I am interested! Who is this person?

While he shouldn’t have been flying over the park, I really enjoyed his videos. Edit: I also think @BSBMX (or someone else) noticed in the blueprints that there was going to be DMX lighting visible on pretty much every large hill including the lift hill, overbanked turn, turnaround, and helix. I think this is part of the blue lighting @collin.klopfstein spotted on the Orion Construction Webcam.

Yes lol

Is your friend with the drone the one you plug on here about the updates?

Also would allow them to expand more to that land if they ever had to

I believe that Cedar Fair’s statement issued out of Knott’s today is an indicator as to their mindset. I believe it is truly a “read between the lines” statement. Their statement today severely negatively impacts their 2020 third quarter earnings (more below on that). I find it very telling that before even 70% of their parks were originally scheduled to be open that they made this announcement. Nine of their 13 parks would not have been opened yet this year when they made today’s announcement. That is a huge indicator and red flag. It is also important to remember that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of their communication. I outlined on page 37 of this thread over 25 reasons why I believe the season will be a wash (and statements like Knott’s further add to that ever growing list). My analysis was looking at all data: data from the health and science community; data from others in this industry and what they are doing; data from other business sectors; history – both from the 1918 pandemic and current history from the countries that saw this before the USA; financial considerations; and my own personal experiences. Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company. They live and die by quarterly statements. First quarter for 2020 (Q1) will be slightly down (maybe $10-$15M) from normal as the closure of Knott’s and postponing of Carowinds and Kings Dominion opening were towards the end of the quarter. Historically Q1 is 6% of their revenue. Q2 is when they start to ramp up because parks are starting to open. Q2 typically makes up 30% of their revenue. Suspending payment plans hurts revenue this quarter. Q3 is where they make their money – typically 51% of their revenue comes from this quarter. All parks are open daily during all or most of this quarter. Company outings and daily admissions make up over 50% of their attendance and most of that will be during this quarter. Pre-sales of passes for the following season occur during this quarter and it is strategic why it happens when it does - to help boost earnings for the quarter if weather impacted attendance. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… Q4 they start to drop off again. Q4 is typically 13% of their revenue. This is the quarter where most of Haunt and all of Winterfest falls. They also continue to pre-sell passes for the following year. They make great stocking stuffers. Let’s analyze these quarters for 2020: Q1 - Cedar Fair can nothing about it now – that is already in the record books. In all likelihood Q1 will be down from previous years. Q2 is going to be dictated by all the stay home and social distancing efforts taking place. These keep getting extended. Virginia has already issued it through June 10th, so that impacts Kings Dominion. My post on Page 36 outlines the impact that date has to Kings Dominion IF that stay-at-home and social distancing order isn’t extended. They now suspended payment plans (good for consumer, bad for CF), so Q2 is going to suck from a revenue perspective. Based on current trends of pushing out social distancing, Q2 will end up having zero parks open. In all likelihood Q2 will be down from previous years significantly. Q3 is where they make their money. If stay-at-home and social distancing efforts keep getting extended, it seriously hurts their bottom line. If these Orders last until June 30th and IF the all clear is given for everything, it is unlikely the parks would be in position to open at the start of Q3. It will take weeks to get back operational, get permitted to run, train staff, etc. Shows and other entertainment events will probably not occur. They will not be able to give the experience pass holders are expecting. In all likelihood, business sectors will be open up slowly and evaluated before opening up more. Where do seasonal attractions fall in that lineup? Will people come out or still have fear? Will companies cancel their company outings to parks and will daily gate admissions disappear because people lost their jobs – these make up 50% of their attendance? Cedar Fair is taking all of these into consideration. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes for 2021… Q3 is likely down from previous years. Q4 is 13% of their revenue. Yes, there are costs associated with Haunt and Winterfest, but staffing, training, etc. has mostly been encumbered in previous quarters. The cost to “open up” just for Q4 is not going to provide a return on the investment. So what does this all mean? Taking all the other factors I have mentioned above and on page 37 out of the equation, from just a science/health/biology/virology standpoint, this virus will follow a generally known pattern. The unknowns are the specific durations and peaks, but it will follow a bell curve in some form or fashion and will have at least another wave if not two more before a vaccine is available. Our country makes up 4.25% of the population, yet we have 26% of the known cases. That is an outrageous difference. Other countries have responded better than we have so it will likely take longer for us to recover (see pages 28 and 41 for more details). The peak keeps getting shifted, which is good as it should mean healthcare is available (which we have seen in some areas it is not), and it is also bad as this new normal gets extended and more and more people lose their jobs. But at some point we will hit that peak, and then all the measures taken will hold that peak at a fairly constant level for a certain period of time (current projections are one to two months before it starts going down). So the latest model shows we peak in early to mid June and hold steady and then starts the decline at the end of July. And then of course we will then start to see restrictions slowly removed and reevaluated and either more open or we close again. Early history from countries starting to re-open is they had to go back to restrictive measures. Cedar Fair is a business first and foremost and a publicly traded company at that. If we do not see the decline of the bell curve until July, then the next question is at what point on the curve are we given the all clear? That could be a month or more before we start seeing a gradual opening up of businesses. At this point the parks will essentially lose all of Q3 as well. At that point, if the expenses to open and operate for the rest of the year are less than the revenue generated, it does not make sense financially to do so. Based on everything I have seen and analyzed and posted in previous posts, that is why I believe from a health perspective we will not see parks re-open this year. As the NFL chief medical doctor said "As long as we're still in a place where when a single individual tests positive for the virus that you have to quarantine every single person who was in contact with them in any shape, form or fashion, then I don't think you can begin to think about reopening." Now that was for football, but the same statement can apply to amusement parks. Opening and closing a park is a huge financial burden. No park wants to have a case traced back to them. Certainly Cedar Fair has certainly analyzed that same data and all their internal data and discussions with investors and others and made projections and decisions that led to the statement issued today. They absolutely destroyed their 2020 Q3 earnings with today’s announcement and put a dent in 2020 Q2 earnings as well by suspending payment plans. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… If the projections are that only 10 percent (or whatever percent they decide) would be daily admissions or company outings if they open after a certain date and thus would have no new real revenue as everyone going would be pass holders with meal and drink plans, financially at some point it makes sense to not open… If they stay closed all year, it just so happens that this decision will make sense from a financial standpoint as well…take the charge and move on... Being a publicly traded company, they will find a way to take a charge on this for filing purposes and have it minimize their financials the best they can. I have worked at publicly traded companies. I have seen business decisions made based on what it would do to a quarterly earnings and take the charge (loss) that quarter or year or kick it to the next quarter/year depending on projections and earnings. Sometimes the decisions defy what one would think is common sense, but you have to look at all the factors and make a decision. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. For all we know this could simply be a moral obligation/decision as well – suspend payment plans to help those that need that money now for other more pressing things, but that decision comes at the cost of the park now not being able to open this year if the all-clear is given due to that delayed revenue stream…Of course they could never say that because too many would slam them for taking away their opportunity to ride Orion because people couldn't keep up with their payment plan and who knows what other horrible statements people would post to FaceBook... Now all of this changes in a moment if some existing drug that is readily available is found to be a cure or vaccine or elected officials ignore science and their medical professionals and decide to say "Screw it" and re-open up the economy... Short of that, based on history, we could see this in some form or fashion be our current normal for up to the next 18 months... TL:DR – today’s Knott’s announcement to suspend payment plans and make all passes are good thru 2021 has significantly hurt their revenue stream for the second quarter (payment plans was their only revenue at the moment) and absolutely destroys 2020 third quarter as nobody will be renewing passes for 2021, leading to a likelihood that they believe 2020 cannot be salvaged and will not open this year.

A new decade is upon us so I thought it would be fun to discuss the things that'll be happening to Cedar Fair in its parks during the 2020s as well as speculate the direction the chain is going in . Of course 2020 is already upon us so I'm going to obviously be looking at 2021 onward. Also I'm going to start out focusing on a broader view but anyone is welcome to look at specific things. The lower tier parks might get some attention in the ride department; IE coasters Kings Dominion will shift to a more family level park Cedar Point might relocate some less popular coasters to its more needy parks (see bullet one) ex: Rougarou & Wicked Twister The company will continue to focus on more interactive experiences Additionally the chain might resemble more of a theme park chain vs an amusement park one Top Tier parks might continue to get around 2 coasters per decade Focusing on high quality experiences at lower costs More themed areas across the chain More focus on California's Great America Possibly more focus on water parks Basically I'm arguing that the chain is going to be focusing more on quality vs quantity. As evidenced at the end of the decade, Cedar Fair started to remove rides and attractions that were costly to operate and out of date. I'd like to think what I've listed above to be somewhat accurate but with Covid-19 hitting the globe, I think the company is going to be in recovery mode for the next year or so.

DeltaFlyer beat me to it.

Seems cases in New York has lessened. Hospitalization is down 50%

They need to put the paper towels back in the restrooms that were updated and replaced with Dyson air dryers - those air dryers spread and blow more germs around (Not to mention blowing any airborne virus particles from sneezes and coughs everywhere) whereas the paper towels actually help remove any remaining germs on your hands https://www.theverge.com/2016/4/21/11479038/dyson-hand-dryer-hygiene-paper-towel-debate

One of my friends who flys a drone got a up close shot of the lift hill and railing. Very blue and definitely looks like an LED light strip, but he said it could just be brushed aluminum

Do we know anything more about the Orion light package? Has anyone seen it tested?

They took out the berm, but to expand the pathway (which will alleviate congestion) and to add a food stand (adds more amenities). I think that’s a very good trade-off.

The racing was awful last year fir two reasons. The blue side was much slower going to the lift hill. The entire first half of the ride there was no racing Because the red side always left the lift Hill at least a full train earlier than the blue side. Sometimes the blue side would catch the red side because the far turn around was uneven due to One side being retracted. unless they fixed the track going to the lift hill it’s still not going to race very well. It really needs a synchronized lift hill like kings dominion’s version. In the big picture that can’t be too expensive of an improvement and it makes Racer 75 at Kings Dominion an amazing ride every time

Well that’s certainly a TIL, knew it seemed like a sudden decision but wow. Thanks for sharing, hope to read more about it in your book.

The final decision to close Vortex was not even made until September, 2019. Additionally, Don is area manager of digital marketing and Chad Showalter is the director of communications. They have no say as to what the park installs. Most (all?) Cedar Fair full-timers are invited to media days. For instance, you can see Greg Scheid in the background of GateKeeper media day videos, Jason McClure in Banshee media day videos, etc.

Literally, you could have stopped there. :-)

I emailed Kings Island about the webcam and the park map. Guest Services said they did not know anything about the webcam and would forward me to the correct individual. They also said I could get a 2020 park map once the park and offices open on May 2, 2020 at 10:00 A.M.

Not trying to sound paranoid or anything but these people literally want to kill me so I can no longer spend my money at Kings Island. So don’t try and tell me it is not on topic.

You're just underestimating our outcast population...lol. I was born and raised a holy-roller. And church is online, as it should be. But yes, there are large groups of uneducated people. Some of them are going to get wiped out right now. I also believe there has to be a large % of them who are not going to show up at these places. But I mean, some folks would move to Guyana if "the right guy" told them that was safe...

It appears to be indicating that special precautions need to be taken if a evacuation is necessary and the last car stopped forward of that line. I'm guessing that is near the point of no return as the train begins to crest.

Can I get the link too? PM

Link please. I want to be the next overnight trillionaire. I know some hospitals in NYC and here in Cbus that will pay top dollar. Don’t post it. PM me, I will give you a cut. On that note. I sure hope we can continue making payments on the payment plan if we choose. When I renewed the Canadian currency conversion rate was 1.3 now it is at 1.42

That’s just unrealistic. In reality, our best case scenario would be two other coasters in 2020’s (likely 2025 & 2029). A coaster every 2 years is a waste of money in my opinion, I’d rather to see investments into flat rides, events, entertainment rather then more rollercoasters.

CDC says hand washing is better....

Adding hand sanitizer stations everywhere...

I have a few I want to do yet. I'm planning on focusing on WoF's railroad but I'll have to do some digging since I don't know as much about the railroad

Yes, there is a section on it in my book. A lot of people have theorized over the reason why it closed and why it was in 2019. The truth is a lot simpler than what most people on here think.

Just practicing my selective quote journalism skills in case I need to go looking for a temporary job in the future.

I can assure you that it's very safe. I'd argue it's much safer than anything with lap bars.

I like to be thorough and detailed with explanations to back my reasoning and show it isn't just a gut feel like a lot of the "the park will open in mid-May" comments....and to keep King Ding Dong from asking for reasons why as he does to the "the park will open in mid-May" posters LOL... If you would like more details, I have them... that is my executive summary LOL... I mean Kings Dominion is opening mid-May - their website says so, despite their Governor's order thru June 10th issued earlier this week...

And to add some context for those that visited Coney Island recently. The image that TombraiderTy shared of the Monster, the building to the right of the Monster was the LaRosa`s building (Across from the mini-golf course). Wipeout stood on part of the area that the Monster used to occupy.

It's a moving target, but all indicators keep pushing it later and we need to manage our expectations and not expect an opening anytime soon (for more indicators see my book post in the other thread LOL)... https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/cleveland-clinic-ceo-coronavirus-peak-in-ohio-expected-between-mid-may-and-mid-june/

I don't see Kings Island or Cedar Point being ready in time by mid-May because of the stay at home order until May 1st, I see a Memorial Day weekend opening as it is right now.

They may wait but since Knott's mentions platinum passes, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion this will be chain-wide... ...also this announcement does lay the groundwork to later simply say they will not open this year ... To make the announcement now that passes will be good thru 2021 is a telling indicator of such likelihood...

Also I would like to say thanks to all the people who donated to me on here. Means a lot to me and that I get to help these families

It is a shame I never got to ride the Barbarian Beetle.

Believe it or not, I find WindSeeker to be significantly more terrifying to me than Drop Tower. The worst thing about DT for me was my ears popping the one time I rode it. WindSeeker looked like it would be relaxing, but the way those seats are engineered are anything but. They perfected the sensation of absolute insecurity with those restraints.

Congo Falls is one of those unique rides that, if you actually get in line and ride it, you feel like you're in a completely different place other than Kings Island.

I haven't been on a KI giga...

I actually remember seeing a film in the Cinema 180 theater. You actually sat on the floor. I sat on that floor myself a number of times... One season they showed a movie featuring a POV ride on The Beast. I remember thinking "Uh, it's about 500 feet away, why not just go ride it for real?"