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About gad198

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  1. Absolutely agree on all counts. Posts that have been on either extreme have been challenged and refuted with reasonable and rational replies. I think one of the reasons why the post quantity in this particular thread has come down is because most now know the rules of engagement; i.e., that if you post something you should be prepared to defend that position with clear reasoning. There's a check-and-balance system here that seems to be working well. That is the very definition of healthy discussion!
  2. I think we would agree that "flattening the curve" has a definition of "hospitals not being overwhelmed"; i.e., that sick people wouldn't overrun the hospital resulting in some people not being able to get treated. I want to make sure we quantify this so that we get an accurate picture. You'll find the link to the data here, which contains information from the CDC about US hospital capacity in three areas for each state (figures through July 14): Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds being occupied right now Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds with COVID pati
  3. Here's the exact verbiage from that study: What that study is inferring is that there were likely 7 times as many cases in that area than were reported during that time (math: 20,141 deaths divided by .0145 fatality rate = 1,389,034 cases. Divide 20,141 into 1,389,034 and you get =0.0145, or 1.45%). Testing figures in that area during the height of the action in that area also bear that out (13.9% infection rate in New York State, 21% with antibodies in New York City - Source). That area is also the absolute worse-case in the entirety of the US. For reference, New York and New Jers
  4. There is no credible source that list infection mortality rates (IFR) that high in the US. The highest estimate I saw for any individual location was the City of New York - at 1.45% (Source), and we all know how poorly things went there. Nearly all IFR estimates for COVID in the US are between 0.2% and 1%. Right now the total COVID cases in the US is just under 4 million. The US population is around 330 million. Doesn't it seem strange that only 1% of the US population has contracted the virus given the positive test and antibody numbers that we've seen - 5% to 25% depending on locati
  5. There's some interesting info in that study. What that study doesn't clarify is - what are the consequences? The mortality numbers are more concrete, and we already know from the numbers that this is simply not deadly for younger people. Per the CDC, here are the total number of deaths thus far in the US in various age groups due to the virus: under age 1: 9 age 1-4: 8 age 5-14: 14 age 15-24: 157 So through middle school age a total of 31 children have died. Add in the high school and college age children and we have a total of 188. For comparison, in the 201
  6. bjcolglazier has been kind enough to post graphs of the daily case and mortality numbers in Indiana. If you look at the graphs for each state (Indiana and Ohio) you'll notice that from mid-March through June 10 that both the daily case and mortality graphs were essentially identical - with a peak around May 1. From June 10 onward the case numbers started to climb in each state, but the daily cases and daily mortality rates started to diverge and have ever since. If you want an even more extreme example, take a look at Georgia. When they reopened back in late April their daily case num
  7. Just out of curiosity, how would you recommend we do contact tracing here in the US when there are 65,000 daily cases right now? How would you convince people to take on that task? Would the (likely massive) costs of so doing yield anything in the way of tangible benefit? Would you plan on doing the same thing when the seasonal flu kicks in? Regarding New Zealand, they still haven't opened their borders yet. They'll have to eventually if they want to keep their economy afloat given how dependent they are on tourism. What do you think is going to happen when they reopen their borders?
  8. I'm not picking on this specific news story, but how many models or predictions related to this virus have in reality been anywhere in the ballpark of what they predicted? Just some other questions rattling around in my head right now: Why is that mask use in the US has increased significantly in the past few months (60%-80% current usage depending on the source) and yet the number of cases is still climbing? Why is it that despite that huge increases in US cases - 3 times as many daily average cases today as compared to two months ago - that the daily average number of deaths ha
  9. One of the reasons that I305 and Skyrush aren't ranked higher in most coaster polls - and the general public - is specifically due to their intensity levels. If you go on an average park day at either Kings Dominion or Hershey you'll hardly ever find super long lines for those coasters. Millennium Force almost always has a good size line. One of the reasons for that is because it's not aggressive. The general public LOVES Millennium Force, and the high fun and re-rideable nature of the ride lends itself to high demand. Fury and the other really good B&M megas (including Orion) are
  10. Regarding Goliath (SFOG) over Diamondback. I actually like the airtime overall better on Diamondback. The airtime on Diamondback's first drop and first three large hills is actually better than Goliath's first drop and first three large hills. Goliath, however, has three things I like better than Diamondback: Goliath is better-paced throughout the whole ride because there's no mid-course brake run Goliath's helix is a better and more interesting turnaround element Goliath's last three hills are just fantastic. I like the last two bunny hills on Diamondback, but the air
  11. Kenban did a pretty good job of describing the gigas, although I think Leviathan is a little better than was mentioned. I think as a coaster type that the B&M mega model is the best in the world. Orion is definitely a worthy addition to that group. Others have done a good job with their element-by-element analysis of Orion so I'll skip that part. I've now ridden each of the North American B&M mega coasters except for Candymonium at Hershey. Overall I think Orion is an excellent ride. The ride is tremendously fun and, as others have mentioned, the ride uses its speed really we
  12. True. But notice the following (Source): and (Source):
  13. That is unfortunate, especially if those workers are in a high-risk group. The article also states that each of the six was wearing a mask. Six is hardly a large sample size, but still...
  14. Yeah, I remember when I was in high school that during one school year where schools closed for about a week because of a bad seasonal flu outbreak. It's certainly nothing to play around with. But schools don't enact extreme, non-scientific-based measures to combat seasonal flu. We know from the data that COVID simply doesn't affect the overwhelming majority of grade school aged kids (1 in 20,000 chance of hospitalization!). We also know that children are extremely unlikely to pass COVID on to others, including adults (i.e., teachers). Countries that have reopened grade schools have
  15. And that is one of the many reasons why so many experts were calling for tests. The data from the testing was valuable. The tests aren't perfect, but combined with the other data we have available should help decision makers to see a more clear picture. I will say this. Quarantining or locking down healthy people has never been a sensible medical strategy. I didn't know this until this week, but apparently asymptomatic transmission of the seasonal flu is high also. The lowest estimate I've seen is 50% of all seasonal flu cases are asymptomatic. Seasonally, anywhere from 5%-20% of th
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