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Posts posted by medford

  1. I'd hate to be that guy on any day, let alone during this.  but it does bring up a point, if/when KI opens up there likely will be rides/attractions like ET that remain closed.

    I'm guessing in 2 weeks time we will have a much clearer idea on the chances that KI opens up at all this year.

  2. I highly doubt we go from 0-100 in a day.

    the updated models for whatever they are worth, keep showing the "worst" case  scenarios lowering, and the "peak" coming sooner.  If Ohio truely peaks this week as the latest models show, the data will clearly back that up by the time the current "stay in place" order expires.  If the models updated over the weekend are wrong, they will also clearly know that by the end of the month.  That state will not open back up prior to the end of the month.

    When it does open back up, it will do so gradually, schools with less than a month to go, will likely stay on the "learn from home" programs they are doing now.  Perhaps gatherings of up to 50 or 100 people will be acceptable.  Little league games?  Maybe assuming all but things like the LLWS gather far less than 100 people.  Places like Movie Theaters may open, but seating will be limited and spread out.  Places like KI, would open up later.  Professional sporting evens will be "fan free", etc... In otherwords, when it first opens up, social distancing will still be in order to an extent, similar to what we saw at the start of social distancing.  Give that a couple of weeks to perhaps a month and if things look like they've stayed positive and a 2nd wave isn't present, more things will open up.

    Things will slowly open up, both by order, but also by human desire/ability.  If you had just been laid off and money is tight, you probably are not going to spring for day tickets to KI or a fancy trip somewhere.  If you had been laid off and are now back at work, you probably aren't going to be asking for vacation in the first couple of months (some don't even give that option).  Many people will also be hesitant to re-enter crowded places.  I doubt people are going to jump to pack the bars, or movie theaters or anywhere else.

    No matter if that re-opening starts in May, June, August or next year, it will re-open slowly, not all at once.

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  3. I'm guessing part of the thinking is "if we can open, we find a way to make them want to come in"  Should KI open this year, the turnstiles will be heavy thanks to Orion, but overall I expect the numbers to be down, and down even sharper at places that don't have anything new and shiny to show off.  Additionally, a gradual re-opening could mean that trains leave the station with only every other row open, so that dispatches are limited.

    There are also people that will be getting checks from the government in the coming months, some of which are trying to think of something FUN to do with that money.

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  4. I've seen several Congo Falls...

    While the ride is brief, the wait is as well, and its got one of the best drops in the entire park.  If you are worried about getting wet, sit in the middle back and you likely won't get very wet.  Its worth the 5 minutes it takes to walk thru the typically empty que to hope on.  I doubt the attraction is going to be around too much longer (just a hunch that eventually that and Invertigo will get removed for a new attraction

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  5. The upcharged rides and Delirium for sure.  Maybe the scrambler and shake rattle and role (can't rule out riding them as a very young kid, but for most of my life riding things that spun too much made me naseous, so if I did I can't remember it).  WindSeeker.  The Linus flying ride, and the kite eating tree. and Orion, which would have given rides out by now, even if it was just KI personal (perhaps it already has)

  6. I think you'd get a lot of baseball enthusiast, but I'd consider myself both.  I'd definitely consider taking my family to KI, I wouldn't bother with a Reds game as i can watch that on TV.

    But none of that matters much if they can't get a cure for the worst symptoms.  W/o that, I don't see anyway a place like KI opens up in any sort of regular way.  Baseball could open up w/o fans in the stands w/ less restrictions

  7. 2 minutes ago, coaster sally said:

    I mean I doubt people will go from social distancing(first time in a century?) If it ends may 1st to jamming venues in a month.

    I think it depends on the venue.  Lets say things get positive and social distancing is lessened at the end of April and KI opens up Memorial Day weekend.  While some will avoid the park and crowds, there will be enough people to ensure that Orion has 2 hour waits that weekend.

    Baseball games on the other hand, people probably wouldn't be quite as motivated to pack the house when you can watch the game on TV.

  8. 1 hour ago, King Ding Dong said:

    Without science modern amusement parks would not exist.  Why fans reject science now is puzzling to me.  

    Perhaps you can explain a scenario where the parks are able to open this season?  Be prepared to back up you conclusions with scientific evidence. 

    I don't know if this will happen, but here is a scenario: they find a drug or combo of drugs that can reliably treat the symptoms for a high percentage of the worst case victoms of Covid-19.  Perhaps that is the Z-pack/Hydro Chloroquine (sp?) that was just approved as an emergency measure, perhaps it is something else like using the anti-bodies from people that have recovered or caught the virus and never showed symptoms, but if they can treat the people that have the most severe cases, add in temperature sensors like I've seen in China at the metal detectors, I can envision a scenario where the park opens up around Memorial Day with little fear of death.  People may continue to get sick, similar to the flue, but if the fear of death is removed from the average citizen things can get back to "normal" or at least closer to "normal".  I'd imagine those with compromised health should remain extra careful and probably those who are in regular contact with them.

    No scientific evidence, but not a sci-fi scenario either.  I'm not saying that it even probably, I'm not qualified to know how any of the drugs they are testing right now are working, but I do think once they have a relatively safe and reliable cure the nation in general can move forward.  Unlike standard times, it won't take forever for something that "works" to get approval, cause when people are on their death beds, you kind of put "safety" aside and try something that has worked on someone else.  The more it keeps working, the more a doctor is willing to try it a bit sooner.

    Theme parks aside, my hope and beliefs are still in the medical research and implementation of the scientific community that some combo of drugs will be found in short order (ie end of the month) to keep the projected 40-80k deaths well below that mark.  I hope I'm right.

    • Like 1
  9. If they find a cure, they won't need to wait for a vaccine.  The vaccine will take time and testing to ensure they are not pushing out a vaccine that does more damage than help as happened back in the 50s; a cure would be much, much quicker.  As an example, there was an interview with a patient who took the malaria drug b/c a friend saw it mentioned on TV as showing signs of promise and mentioned it.  He talked to his doctor about it, and the doctor told him about the potential side effects/risks and he figured, what the hell, "I'm not going to live past tomorrow anyways, might as well try it"  When he woke up the next morning, all of his symptoms had dissipated.

    Now don't be stupid and take something with a similar sounding name used to clean fish tanks, take under Doctor's orders and only if you are really sliding, but if I though I was dying anyways heck yeah I'd give it a shot.

  10. 13 minutes ago, RollerNut said:

    If the US peaks in Mid-May then we will be looking at around 6 million cases in the US alone and based upon the current rate of deaths compared to recovered 2.75 million deaths. 

    Of course, this is assuming a very sharp peak which is unrealistic but is the worst case scenario based on the numbers I have been watching. 

    I hope this Social Distancing non-sense starts working but based on the last 2 weeks and a fairly steady multiplier of 1.3, in my non-expert opinion the government waited too late to start these measures. 

    I do also want to note that if the US peaks on Easter Sunday then the US will still have around 2 million cases.

    my opinion is based upon facts but is solely a non-expert opinion. 

    I don't have a source on this, but according to Bill Cunningham on 700 WLW, the english doctor (or perhaps researcher) who was often quoted about the 2.5 million american deaths has revised his expectations down to 25,000 deaths.  That's quite a bit different.


    The next couple of weeks will tell a huge story.  Does Ohio's wave come and pass?  or does it continue to rise as they were predicting today until mid-may?  Are any of the medications being tried/administered today show strong(er) signs of being a real solution.  If the Z-pack and whatever the other drug is called combo works as some are claiming, and works significantly well with little set back, many things can get back to normal,  Or if some other combo is found to work well.  Since they say a vast majority of people don't even know they have it, and even less show serious signs of symptoms, the drugs would not be administered to many.  I've still got hope that this summer isn't lost.

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  11. the way I understand it, the warm weather doesn't necessarily kill the virus any more or less than cold weather, at least not in a significant way, what it does however is limits how far it can travel and carry in the air from an infected patient.  In the cold, often thin air, your air plume can travel up to 6 feet from your mouth, hence the 6 foot restriction.  In the summer time, with warmer, more humid air, your air plume is often limited to 2 feet or less so the odds of transmission are significantly less.  2 feet puts you almost right on top of a person, and just out of common courtesy you are going to give someone more space than that.  @ 6t you walk within an infected person's plume with out even thinking about it.  The UV light does help, but as I understand it, that difference in Plume is why things die down in the summer.

    One thing different about this, is that you can transfer the bug despite being asymptomatic.  If you have the typical flu, you only transfer it during the period you have a fever, which you are likely staying inside anyways.  But if you can transfer it when not showing any signs, and you are at spring break on crowded beaches and clubs, you are within/ 2 feet of people constantly.

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  12. I tried to look at the park hours for August, but it appears that info was taken down (along w/ the whole seasonal calendar).  Typically, they go from full day operations to weekend operations around mid to late August, so lets say August 23 as the end of daily operations.  If they don't open until August 1st, that would be 23 days of full day operation, 2 weekends of operations, then whatever weekends they added on thru and including Haunt.

    That is a very short window to recoup the cost it will take to train and hire the number of employees the park needs to operate.  Additionally, I think it would be hard to hire the regular number of associates it normally hires, if you are a HS or college kid that is heading back to school in mid August, are you really going to bother with a job that you can only work for 2 weeks?  Additionally, there will inevitably be a handful of days in that time frame that are virtual (if not literal) washouts due to inclement weather.

    There is also the risk, especially with a new coaster, that if they did open, they would be crushed in capacity in a short time frame, making for an unpleasant experience for guests.

    If they can't open up by mid June to early July, I'm afraid they won't open up at all until Halloween, if at all.  There are a ton of logistics in the hiring and training of employees that be going on right now.  That in and of itself will be a difficult task just to open up without everything being a complete #$%& show.

    • Like 1
  13. 13 hours ago, malem said:

    The stimulus bill that passed the Senate early this morning includes a $600/week bonus on top of state unemployment through July 31. For those currently unemployed, this would be quite a bit more than most park jobs would pay on a weekly basis. Here's a helpful FAQ: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html

    This bill isn't law yet; it still awaits approval by the House and a signature from the president.

    It isn't just about if they could make more money on unemployement or not, but if the park didn't open up until August, you're looking at 2-3 weeks of full time employment, then just weekends for a month or two.  The HS/College kids that make up a large % of their work force would be back in school or heading back soon, think they are going to start a job knowing that they have to move on in a week or two, would the cost of training even be worth it to KI?  The longer they hold off opening, the harder its going to be for them to open up in full capacity.

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  14. I don't know why exactly, but it appears they expanded the building in that area and added seating behind the Chick-F-La building in that area.

    Having a tunnel of that size, along a popular path limits the opportunities to sell or entertain along that path, ie make money.  Probably why when they put it back it was used as part of a ride entry.  Wouldn't mind seeing them do something similar on other rides where possible.

    • Like 1
  15. 56 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

    Disney really needs to use this downtime to make this happen.



    My wife's cousin works for Sideshow Collectibles, I wonder if he had a hand in that?  Doesn't seem like his typical work that I've seen, but I only talk to him about once every 3-5 years.

  16. On 3/20/2017 at 3:55 PM, medford said:

    Spring has officially sprung and with an influx of new members thanks to Mysty, I thought I'd bump my favorite thread in the history of this site.  Seriously if you haven't read thru it, take some time, start from the beginning and just start enjoying some time travel.

    Oh, and if stand by me is still out there occasionally reading (been a while since I've seen him post) we need an update to photo set #1 :)

    bumpity bump bump bump.  Everything I said this time 3 years ago still applies.  If you need a diversion during these times, this is a great thread to get lost in.

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  17. The thing I can't wrap my head around is the length of this.  Its one thing to ask people or forcibly shut down everything for 2-3 weeks.  But beyond that, people gotta work.  Some truly have to work, but think about the chain of command over a long time.  Doctors, nurses, grocery store workers, etc... all need to work, that is obvious, but what about the things that support those fields, like farmers, factory workers, clothing manufactrers, etc...  Then what about the people that support those people who need roads to work one and buildings to work in, HVAC equipment repaired, cars need repaired, etc...  Then you are looking at your neighbor getting out everyday to do work and you want to do something as well, get our of your house apartment, etc...  Can we expect the government to pay for the existence of everyone in the country for an extended period?

    My point, at some point, life has to return to a somewhat normal state.  Perhaps small adjustments can be made but it can't/won't last forever.  My wife is a teacher, and yes the at home deal has been a pain in the ass, but that is something that can be adjusted to and maintained for longer, however I'm sitting in my office right now going thru my daily routine.  I'm pretty well self isolated, have about 800-1000 sq foot to no one but myself, but if a true shut down last long, work will dry up, then what?  what about the guys we hire to actually install/build the designs I make?  What about the vendors that supply that equipment and their support staff?  As you can see, it spreads out quickly and touches all aspects of society.  I feel that if the charts are to believed (and they are created by people much smarter than I, so I won't argue with them, just observe) all we are doing is attempting to buy time, eventually society is going to have to pull the bandaid off; but when?

    • Like 1
  18. 20 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

    How much is the debt worth?

    Been too long since I've really dived into a balance sheet, so don't count me as an expert, but:


    They list long term debt as 2.6 Bil

    They list property and infrastructure value @ 3.7 Bil

    Someone smarter than I can break it down further, but I'm fairly certain that if they declared brankruptcy they would fetch a good amount of money for the land and buildings, steel, etc... that they own.


    This will sting and hurt their bottom line, no doubt about that, I expect their dividend will be cut, if not eliminated soon.  However, at some point this will pass.  While many are hurting in a bad way, there are many that are sitting at home not spending money on anything, they will be looking for places like KI to not only spend that money, but to get the kids and family out of the house and doing something "normal" and fun again.  I'd even venture to say, that if every park in the US opened back up June 1st, that a place like KI would see an immediate effect much quicker than a place like Disney.  Disney is the kind of place many plan a year plus for, KI most just do on a "whim".  While Disney will recover quicker in the long run, CF could do better in the immediate short run depending on when things open back up.  At some point, businesses will open back up, even if Covid-19 isn't fully expunged, there is only so long that people can sit around not being productive.

    • Like 1
  19. 13 hours ago, bjcolglazier said:

    There's another thread for this, but the market is an interesting thing. As of today, I would value the Amusement Park industry at basically $0. Their business is shot, and even their major assets aren't worth much of anything. Of course, over time that will change. Roller-coaster-market for sure right now!

    Not true at all.  While they may not be able to generate income atm, they are not worth $0.  The land that the own, the buildings, the rides, etc... all have value, their assets are worth something, even if KI could never open again the land they sit on, trade marks, intrinsic value and steel they own are worth a significant amount of money.

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