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disco2000

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Everything posted by disco2000

  1. We have to remember that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of their communication...so they have their reasons...even if it is an inconsistent message to those that follow the chain closely...
  2. I am sure their is so much legalize they can do as the please... and based on all current announcements as of today, according to this a platinum pass is not a platinum pass and is based on where you purchased, so a Knott's platinum is extended through 2021 but based on today's announcement the other parks platinum is not...
  3. I posted this in the other thread too since we have two going...
  4. I will just leave these here...current changes on Knott's webpage...
  5. An argument can be made for either case...and one's life experiences and job experiences and dealing with these types of things can certainly play into one's bias on what the interpretation is. A banker or anyone working in an associated line of business will believe the interpretation is as the banks are doing... The right approach is probably just suspend and push the end date....BUT if they do not extend the passes good thru 2021, then potentially this opens up where someone has two monthly payments come August - one for the 2020 pass they are still paying on for however many months AND a new payment plan for renewing for 2021...
  6. That has not been made clear...they could do as some banks are...until they issue a clarification statement, we do not know if they are pushing your payment plan end date by however many months they are suspended or if you will have to "get current" and your payment end date remains the same...and let's hope they don't go the route of the banks and charge interest for this "loan" during the suspension...
  7. And to muddy the wording even more, they state "Once the park has opened for the season, billing will resume. Passholders will need to be current on payments in order to receive 2020 Season Pass admission and associated benefits." "Passholders will need to be current" could mean two different things? It could mean if you were current when they suspended payments, then you are current once it resumes and your payment plan is simply extended for however many months the suspension was....or it could mean that if payments are suspended for example 3 months, that you would need to pay for all 3 months when payment resumes in order to be current... They haven't specified if this suspension is moving your ending payment date by the number of months the plans are suspended or if your ending payment date stays the same and you lump sum pay for the months missed while the plan was suspended... Some banks are doing this...homeowners say Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Chase have told them they have to repay those postponed payments – known as forbearance – in a lump sum. It's an unexpected demand they fear could put them deeper in debt as millions are laid off and watching their retirement savings plunge with the stock market. This is a big difference and has serious implications depending on what their intent is...
  8. See the other thread "Coronavirus impacting theme parks" for discussions about how this impacts platinum passes potentially starting on page 47... Should this thread be combined with the other one?
  9. For those that missed it on page 44, or didn't bother to read it because you only have a KI gold pass so it wasn't applicable to you yet, here is a summary of my thoughts on what this means and a potential unintended consequence, disparity in the works.... Since they did not announce a chain-wide offer that Knott's provided, that could mean CF believes that the remaining parks could still potentially open with enough days left in the year to make up for missed days! Or it could simply mean that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of their communication...and after enough days will be missed than cannot be made up, we get the announcement... IF for some reason CF is able to open their parks this year and not have to extend season park gold and regular passes through the 2021 season, they have potentially just created unintended consequences of their Knott's announcement... What are these unintended consequences you may be asking yourself? Well, a platinum pass is a platinum pass. So Knott's announced platinum passes are now good thru the 2021 season. If the Knott's announcement doesn't go chain-wide, that now creates a disparity since your gold pass for KI is only valid for 2020, yet your friend that bought a platinum pass same day as you now gets in for 2021 as well... One could argue CF could say that a 2020 platinum pass is only valid for 2021 season at Knott's or the 2021 season is only valid to platinum passes purchased at Knott's, but that then opens up a whole new set of issues associated with a platinum pass, from internal legacy admissions software issues that may not be able to deal with this issue, to creating a disparity based on where one purchases a platinum pass, etc...in this case not all platinum passes are created equal...
  10. I know it has been said before, but we really enjoy you sharing these bits of history of the park!
  11. Exactly! Line jumping happens when you are shoulder-to-shoulder in line...imagine the temptation if there is six feet between everyone for someone to jump... And now that people are realizing (shocking I know) that this virus is airborne, think about when someone is smoking in line. Think about how many times you have smelled tobacco or pot smoke in line or walking around the park. Many times you are looking around trying to see who is doing it. Essentially, we are inhaling the contents of their lungs. If they are sick with this virus, guess what... I have seen someone in line very politely inform a guest that smoking is not allowed in line, and the smoker tells them to go F off. I have seen an employee kindly tell a guest smoking is not allowed in line and the guest screams the employee is racist and picking on them and creates a big scene. More times than not unfortunately, in my experiences the offending smoker shows an attitude even if approached nicely...Imagine now what could happen in line if someone is smoking...
  12. Not the tropics, but we had an Australian theme for awhile...with a pirates boat in the kiddie portion lol
  13. I assumed you would have those for your stats sheet in the book and would tell us to wait until the book comes out
  14. You would notice it if it wasn't for all the spieling in the station
  15. But if it is that shove a qtip 8 inches up your nose test, it would make for a good video here lol You could be test #1 towards getting parks back open
  16. Sounds like something for @IndyGuy4KIand family to sign up for?
  17. Actually the thought process is do national random testing. Ohio wants to start random testing, but lack of test kits is one of the hurdles. They will use statistical models to determine the reach of the virus, similar to scientific polls we commonly see that say something like with a margin of +/- 4%. And one would be surprised how small the sample pool needs to be for a statistical model to start providing meaningful information....is it perfect...NO...we cannot test everyone, but at least from a statistical analysis standpoint, it can give us a much better idea how much of the population has it than now, which is a WAG...
  18. Care to elaborate...some Great things happening being posted would be needed right now...
  19. Not a good sign...they had some of the most restrictive measures to begin with such as strict quarantine and enforcing it, face mask requirements for everyone, temperature taking to go anywhere, and big brother tracking your every move to trace the virus...
  20. ^I said the rumors that existed about Disney purchasing Cedar Fair. I never said they were seriously considering purchasing, I said the rumor exists. There is a difference between what I said and what you think I said. As far as the widely disseminated portion, I would consider Motley Fool, which is headquartered in Alexandria, Va., with offices in Denver and Sydney, Australia, and serves investors and businesses in the UK, Australia, Hong Kong, Canada, Singapore, and Germany and has been providing investing insights and financial advice to millions of people for over 25 years to be considered as widely disseminated. And I wouldn't underestimate the reach of this own forum as well... Six Flags hit mainstream media because they were seriously considering purchasing Fun and made an offer. Making an offer is seriously considering purchasing...
  21. Oh I get that, and I refer you to my somewhat detailed analysis on revenue and impact by quarter for Cedar Fair back on page 43 substantiating my viewpoint. I am being optimistic and have said I think that date is August 15th, but realistically I think if they cannot open up by July 4th weekend they call it... Q4 is where Haunt and Winterfest fall. Q4 is 13% of their total revenue. Once you subtract out pre-sale passes, it wouldn't surprise me if Haunt and Winterfest is less than 10% of their yearly revenue... Under current restrictions, many of which would still be in effect for Haunt and Winterfest, they will not be able to give us the experience we expect - Is it Haunt with no rides but haunts or no haunts but rides? Is Winterfest just lights and no shows? What about having to limit attendance during those times...would only attendance be pass holders because daily admission tickets will sell horribly given so many people that have lost their job...how to keep staff safe...how long after the all-clear before people will feel comfortable going out in crowds....these are all questions and decisions Cedar Fair needs to make before re-opening... Here is a summary of my page 43 documentary LOL: Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company. They live and die by quarterly statements. First quarter for 2020 (Q1) will be slightly down from normal (maybe $10-$15M) as the closure of Knott’s and postponing of Carowinds and Kings Dominion opening were towards the end of the quarter. Historically Q1 is 6% of their revenue. Nothing they can do about that now... Q2 is when they start to ramp up because parks are starting to open. Q2 typically makes up 30% of their revenue. A portion of that is now gone by suspending monthly payment plans. And the stay at home orders could result in none of the parks opening during Q2 Q3 is where they make their money – typically 51% of their revenue comes from this quarter. All parks are open daily during all or most of this quarter. Company outings and daily admissions make up over 50% of their attendance and most of that will be during this quarter. A lot of these outings and daily admissions probably will not happen this year as companies cancel their event and a lot of daily admission folks dealing with losing their jobs. That is a big loss of revenue. Pre-sales of passes for the following season occur during this quarter and it is strategic why it happens when it does - to help boost earnings if weather impacted attendance. The announcement by Knott's extending platinum through 2021 SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… Q4 they start to drop off again. Q4 is typically 13% of their revenue. This is the quarter where most of Haunt and all of Winterfest falls. They also continue to pre-sell passes for the following year. They make great stocking stuffers. I believe the statement issued by Knott's is a strong indicator and read between the lines statement that CF seriously doubts they will re-open this year. To give away all of 2021 before nine of their parks were even scheduled to open should be an indicator or red flag as to their thinking...
  22. I have stated several times that CF has to have a date in mind that if they do not open by a certain date, that from a financial standpoint it will not make sense to open this year because at that point the costs associated with opening (start up costs, training, payroll, operating costs, etc.) would be less than the revenue generated...CF is a for-profit publicly traded company and quarterly earnings is a big part of the equation...to open up simply for the sake of opening up and losing money in the process would be disaster for their stock...the risk is too great... This quote from the article by the production company's CEO basically applies to just about any seasonal operation business, whether it be open air theater or amusement parks: "The financial reality of an operation like Tecumseh is that to lose 18-35 show nights is a financial disaster, one which the company might have never recovered." Any savvy business owner would look at the financials and determine if it makes sense to open or not...
  23. South Korea also had a different response and approach to the virus than the US did...and even with all their measures that some experts say other countries should have modeled after, even they are now seeing a second spike
  24. And this alone could be one of the reasons why an amusement park may be one of the last business sectors to re-open. Let's face it, depending on the ride, a ride op will come into close proximity to thousands of people a day. Certainly more people than most first-responders or hospital employees or most industries for that matter... And depending on the ride, the ride-ops get up close and personal simply based on where the restraint is they need to check. Totally inappropriate and should not be done under any circumstance, but to make the point, on most rides like Drop Tower, and then Beast and Racer having to bend down to check the restraint, you are close enough to kiss their cheek when they check your restraint. That would probably result in a call to security and removal from the park and I am not suggesting that in any form or fashion, but that is how close they get in some instances.. Vortex not so much...um wait never mind that ride is gone...I guess we still have The Bat... What about rides like Steel Vengeance and Twisted Timbers where the employee puts down your lap bar. Or having to check the height of a kid. What about shoulder-to-shoulder filling of the Eiffel Tower elevator...maybe they re-open the steps and allow one at a time (and yes I do know that is impossible with all the wiring and lack of safety for a guest) Keeping the employees safe will be paramount and will be a huge factor in when the parks can open. At the proximity they are to guests, paper masks won’t protect them so they will need N95, plus eye protection, plus gloves. And how often will they need to replace/exchange these? In the heat those masks won't last an hour before they become sweat wet and unusable. Dispatch times will come to a crawl. Without herd immunity or a vaccine, they will catch it from asymptomatic carriers or become asymptomatic carries and spread it, there is just no way around it. And this would all be a new unanticipated expense...how many remember the gas price increases many years ago and many companies, like trash hauling, added a fuel surcharge temporarily into their pricing. Would the typical guest be willing to pay a $10 surcharge each visit to compensate for these added measures...
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