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Yesterday while I was outside of the fence the site leader from RMC came out and gave us stickers and talked about the industry. That really made my day! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G928A using Tapatalk

Here's my best shot from media day... needless to say, I think this is the picture most coaster nerds will try to get...  LOL!  (Please do not re-post or use this, or any of my pictures without my per

Back to the topic at hand... I got sneaky and took some pics while at the Fairgrounds this weekend... Enjoy!

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Looks like the state is no longer tight-lipped about the number of bids submitted. The governor said there was only one bid, and although he won't specify who it was, we know that Ed Hart and company submitted a bid, so it must be him. That means Ed Hart has no competition for KK. I'm no good at analyzing stuff like this, so is the lack of competition good or bad?

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Certainly not saved yet. Article said that they are close to reaching a lease. Still said that the group will have to secure financing. Let's not forget Bluegrass Boardwalk also had a lease at one point in time. Until opening day comes for this park, I'll remain pessimistic.

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After going through Hart's estimates for some of the repairs, I'd think some of these are not at all accurate, inflated or grossly underestimated. Having been in the park, legally, myself and seen it with my own eyes. For T2 it makes no mention of needing new trains. Are they planning to repair the one in pieces in the station and scattered under the ride in the grass? Same with Thunder Run. You can't tell me that the train currently sitting on the track (and it has been for several years now), unprotected, not winterized, with most of its valuable parts stripped off is in any condition to run.

If you read the PDF, then you didn't read all of it. Pages 25 & 26 address both the items you mentioned. First T2 - Two new trains at a cost of 2.2 million, and Thunder Run, rehab of current trains, costing 30k. http://www.kentuckykingdom.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/KKRC_ResponseOct2012w.pdf

Thank you for the link, I apparently missed that. However, is this the same PDF we were talking about originally? I seem to remember one that was much longer and had a list laid out of all the estimation costs and where these estimates were sourced from - i.e. what vendor estimated the price?

I'm seeing a vendor for the wave pool and water ride, but is there one for the rest of the rides?

Also, does it state anywhere that these vendors specifically visited the site to make their estimations?

I imagine refurbishing this for 30k (if that's accurate) is cheaper than buying a new train:

6940246103_4ab70aa9a2_o.jpg

One other thing, if anyone can answer it, Hart previously claimed in his last attempt that he had financing in place which would allow him to pay the lease rent and fund the park's operation, but wanted money from the Commonwealth to fund improvements and repairs. His original estimation was $50 Million then he dropped it to $20 Million. Now he claims he needs no taxpayer incentives, so who are these new investors?

Personally I think Hart's numbers should have an asterisk by them. They're not necessarily lies, but you have to look at the full story:

"KKRC will accept essentially the same lease terms that the state previously approved for the Holiday World investors. Including the jobs it will stimulate in the hospitality industry and construction trades, Kentucky Kingdom will produce, on average, 2,150 full-time jobs annually."

Please be aware, that doesn't mean 2,150 full time positions at that small park. I seem to remember for a proposal for an American oil pipeline that considered the increased hours of a local burger king near where construction would be taking place as "full time jobs."

I'm actually surprised a newspaper printed press release bullet points word for word without any kind of comment.

I'm curious as to why Bashear is now "excited," when previously he seemed mum on Hart's proposal.

Even so, let's say Hart does get a lease with the state, there's still the question of where his financing will come from, although he did have investors last time. I bet he'd pull a Holiday World - "well, yeah, we're gonna just do the water park at first."

Keep in mind, his bullet points are referenced for being the ENTIRE park opening. The last operators to have a look, who have much more experience in the industry than Hart, jumped ship without even trying. Also, I don't remember the Koch's ever touting economic benefit numbers like this.

I honestly wish the state would just sell off this land. This whole process is awful and it speaks volumes that there's only ONE guy interested in it.

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ive read the plan and it does sorta make3 sense. im excited about the new B&m coaster coming in 2015 if this deal happens. (no im not trolling it said it in one part)

- What parts make sense to you and why?

+ There's a difference between what might happen and what you want to happen.

- A new B&M coaster by 2015 is an absurd stretch.

+ Again, that may be what Hart wants or says he's going to do, but is it realistic? First off: No. A coaster of that size and from that manufacturer would require planning years in advance. I highly doubt that Ed Hart would've flown B&M in and paid them a ton of money to start designing something or even have them consult and estimate a new attraction at a park that he doesn't even technically have the legal ability to operate amusement rides in, especially one where the future is questionable. Diamondback opened at Kings Island in 2009. Evidence of construction was first seen in 2008. You know for sure that planning for such a ride would've occurred well before 2008.

So, seriously here, do you really think Ed Hart has paid B&M to design any kind of ride so far in advance (when he's not even guaranteed to be operating the park) that it could be constructed and operating by 2015?

We'll be lucky if this park is even opening or still standing by 2015.

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That article is a little inconclusive.

"While talking to 84-WHAS radio Tuesday, the Governor said there was a deal to lease the vacant park to a Louisville development group."

Yet no direct quote and Hart declines to comment.

Then this is the only directly quoted statement from the Governor:

"It's fair to say we are fairly close to negotiating a lease if we get there and the fair board approves the next step is for the bidder to come up with the financing for it."

Seems like sloppy writing to me. Isn't that the same quote used earlier in the Business Insider article?

Here's something to think about: If the Governor is all the sudden "excited" and Hart is refusing comment, is there another operator in the mix?

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^Good point.

Not to mention, the governor in both articles only says that the state is only "close to negotiating a lease," NOT reach a deal.

Or at least that's how I... interpreted ...it.

Seems like a deal could still be far off and that they're still debating whether or not to even discuss a lease. Then again, Hart did say he'd accept the same deal the Koch's were given.

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After going through Hart's estimates for some of the repairs, I'd think some of these are not at all accurate, inflated or grossly underestimated. Having been in the park, legally, myself and seen it with my own eyes. For T2 it makes no mention of needing new trains. Are they planning to repair the one in pieces in the station and scattered under the ride in the grass? Same with Thunder Run. You can't tell me that the train currently sitting on the track (and it has been for several years now), unprotected, not winterized, with most of its valuable parts stripped off is in any condition to run.

If you read the PDF, then you didn't read all of it. Pages 25 & 26 address both the items you mentioned. First T2 - Two new trains at a cost of 2.2 million, and Thunder Run, rehab of current trains, costing 30k. http://www.kentuckykingdom.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/KKRC_ResponseOct2012w.pdf

Thank you for the link, I apparently missed that. However, is this the same PDF we were talking about originally? I seem to remember one that was much longer and had a list laid out of all the estimation costs and where these estimates were sourced from - i.e. what vendor estimated the price?

I'm seeing a vendor for the wave pool and water ride, but is there one for the rest of the rides?

Also, does it state anywhere that these vendors specifically visited the site to make their estimations?

It doesn't say that in there, but why would you submit a bid without doing the full legwork for the ride? It is easier to call the manufacturers of the original ride, and ask what replacement parts will cost as opposed to guessing. Most companies can email back these figures within a few days.

I imagine refurbishing this for 30k (if that's accurate) is cheaper than buying a new train:

6940246103_4ab70aa9a2_o.jpg

One other thing, if anyone can answer it, Hart previously claimed in his last attempt that he had financing in place which would allow him to pay the lease rent and fund the park's operation, but wanted money from the Commonwealth to fund improvements and repairs. His original estimation was $50 Million then he dropped it to $20 Million. Now he claims he needs no taxpayer incentives, so who are these new investors?

As I understand it, these are the additional business people that Ed Hart brought into his company. The Al J. Schneider Company, who originally said they would guarantee a loan of 20m for Ed Hart to use. He also brought in a Partner with a major Law Firm, another with a Capital Ownings company. He is bringing in private loans to people with deep pockets. This isn't hard to figure out. These companies if they loaned him the money, would be first in line for jobs and services provided as KK needed those services, while also getting back money they loaned.

Personally I think Hart's numbers should have an asterisk by them. They're not necessarily lies, but you have to look at the full story:

"KKRC will accept essentially the same lease terms that the state previously approved for the Holiday World investors. Including the jobs it will stimulate in the hospitality industry and construction trades, Kentucky Kingdom will produce, on average, 2,150 full-time jobs annually."

Please be aware, that doesn't mean 2,150 full time positions at that small park. I seem to remember for a proposal for an American oil pipeline that considered the increased hours of a local burger king near where construction would be taking place as "full time jobs."

True that they try to reflect on positives with other nearby industries. Most employers equate those job numbers to FTEs or Full Time Equivalents. So while it would only be that many FTEs, it could benefit twice as many people, if some of those are part time jobs. I suspect the park will have to maintain about 100 full time positions throughout the year to make everything work right in the off season.

I'm actually surprised a newspaper printed press release bullet points word for word without any kind of comment.

I'm curious as to why Bashear is now "excited," when previously he seemed mum on Hart's proposal.

I think this is game playing at its finest. What better Holiday gift to present other than a deal with a group to reopen a shuttered amusement park? Give the fans what they want, and the people something to look forward to as well.

Even so, let's say Hart does get a lease with the state, there's still the question of where his financing will come from, although he did have investors last time. I bet he'd pull a Holiday World - "well, yeah, we're gonna just do the water park at first."

Keep in mind, his bullet points are referenced for being the ENTIRE park opening. The last operators to have a look, who have much more experience in the industry than Hart, jumped ship without even trying. Also, I don't remember the Koch's ever touting economic benefit numbers like this.

I honestly wish the state would just sell off this land. This whole process is awful and it speaks volumes that there's only ONE guy interested in it

The state is never going to sell that land. If they ever wanted to use it for something else, they could. There are still several undeveloped plots the state still owns for park expansion. They could always consider using parts of the parking lots for expansion as well. Why would anyone other than one guy be interested in it? He was the same ONE guy that brought the park back the first time it failed and did a great job building it up.

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ive read the plan and it does sorta make3 sense. im excited about the new B&m coaster coming in 2015 if this deal happens. (no im not trolling it said it in one part)

- What parts make sense to you and why?

+ There's a difference between what might happen and what you want to happen.

- A new B&M coaster by 2015 is an absurd stretch.

+ Again, that may be what Hart wants or says he's going to do, but is it realistic? First off: No. A coaster of that size and from that manufacturer would require planning years in advance. I highly doubt that Ed Hart would've flown B&M in and paid them a ton of money to start designing something or even have them consult and estimate a new attraction at a park that he doesn't even technically have the legal ability to operate amusement rides in, especially one where the future is questionable. Diamondback opened at Kings Island in 2009. Evidence of construction was first seen in 2008. You know for sure that planning for such a ride would've occurred well before 2008.

So, seriously here, do you really think Ed Hart has paid B&M to design any kind of ride so far in advance (when he's not even guaranteed to be operating the park) that it could be constructed and operating by 2015?

We'll be lucky if this park is even opening or still standing by 2015.

I think you are way off. Money talks. If a company says it will cost this amount to build this ride with this much lead time. Most companies say, how much will it cost to be done by this time, and the manufacturer or builder prices it out. Money is what drives everything. If somebody wants a coaster in a shortened amount of time, I am sure money can make that happen. How much planning is really involved in a ride a manufacturer already has stored on a computer system somewhere? I'm sure they don't leave engineers sitting around an office, bored when they aren't any active projects underway. I am sure there is a fair amount of sandboxing that goes on in trying new things. How else would you come up with new coaster designs and technology? It wouldn't surprise me if the designs drove the cosater tech, instead of the other way around. Trying things on a computer to start with, is probably how a lot of newer coaster elements come into existence.

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I'm pretty sure B&M has been aware of Mr. Hart's request. Remember, this whole situation with reopening Kentucky Kingdom goes back to 2010. Also, according to the RFP, this is supposed to be the month the KKRC is to put down a $200,000 down payment on the new B&M coaster.

Financing is really not a problem IMO. I truley believe that the $$$ is already there.

Here's a nice article that was just posted yesterday...

http://insiderlouisville.com/news/2012/12/13/kingdom-come-ed-hart-has-gov-beshear-right-where-he-wants-him-pt-2/

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I'm surprised you think it's nice. It concludes with "Hart's chances aren't much better than 50/50."

I don't disagree. I'm still astounded at the low level of capex contemplated, the very low season pass prices, and the low amounts projected for restoring the park.

Financing will be a major linchpin. Lenders will require a financial analysis far more robust than the Commonwealth, particularly if the state will not guarantee the loan or allow use of its property as collateral. Several of the partners could self finance the deal, but I doubt they do that, as the risk is high, and they'd rather put that on others. Perhaps they will end up selling stock to raise capital, but the disclosure requirements there can also be quite onerous.

Hart himself and the proposal said the deal would have to be in place by November 1 in order for the park to open for 2014. We are past that. And Hart's proposal used the state owned equipment as collateral.

I'd say the two sides are at least as near a deal as the two sides in the fiscal cliff negotiations. Maybe.

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The state is never going to sell that land. If they ever wanted to use it for something else, they could. There are still several undeveloped plots the state still owns for park expansion. They could always consider using parts of the parking lots for expansion as well. Why would anyone other than one guy be interested in it? He was the same ONE guy that brought the park back the first time it failed and did a great job building it up.

Slow down, slick. Before they even discuss expansion on other land plots or the parking lot - they should probably have an amusement park that's up and running first.

My point was, that it would be better to sell off that land and just use it for anything someone wanted to buy it for. I imagine that this mess of having to deal with the State Government, a fair board and constructing an elaborate lease isn't desirable to many potential operators.

In fact, the situation is not a desirable one at all. The previous operator said goodbye even though this was a reliably profitable park for them, one that had a steady regular force of Season Pass sales.

Why would anyone other than one guy be interested in it? The point is, others would be interested - if it had the potential to be a good, profitable decision. Clearly, many don't think it is. Hart believes it is, hence why he's the only one to submit a bid.

Also keep in mind, while he is the same guy who turned it around the first time - he also turned it around and sold it off for huge sums of money to Six Flags, a brilliant decision on his end and regarding his history as an investor.

The man is not interested in the park just to "save" it, he's interested in it because he has experience operating it before and sees potential to make money.

I think you are way off. Money talks. If a company says it will cost this amount to build this ride with this much lead time. Most companies say, how much will it cost to be done by this time, and the manufacturer or builder prices it out. Money is what drives everything. If somebody wants a coaster in a shortened amount of time, I am sure money can make that happen. How much planning is really involved in a ride a manufacturer already has stored on a computer system somewhere? I'm sure they don't leave engineers sitting around an office, bored when they aren't any active projects underway. I am sure there is a fair amount of sandboxing that goes on in trying new things. How else would you come up with new coaster designs and technology? It wouldn't surprise me if the designs drove the cosater tech, instead of the other way around. Trying things on a computer to start with, is probably how a lot of newer coaster elements come into existence.

Actually, I'd say I'm pretty accurate. Look at the rest of the industry. No one goes to B&M and says "here's briefcases full of cash we need a new coaster next year," and even if Hart did (with "money" as the driving factor as you say), it would take quite awhile to design a coaster for that park. Not to mention, you'd have to find qualified contractors who can build it, get approval from the local government, etc. B&M doesn't have a team of guys sitting around playing Roller Coaster Tycoon all day. They do have many projects each year and then also have to look at working on, improving and redesigning existing systems and creating new ones for their physical assets besides coasters. A B&M coaster is highly expensive, large investment that has a long time of quality engineering behind it.

By all indications, even if a deal is reached, it wouldn't likely be until January 2013 at the rate things are moving.

Even if a deal is announced on the first of the year in an ideal situation, two BIG, GLARING factors remain:

- Hart's KKRC and his team will still have to negotiate a lease.

- Hart's KKRC will still need to secure financing.

And both of those factors are only if the state approves his proposal and selects Hart's KKRC as the chosen operator.

Do you really think Hart has been in contacts with B&M to work out the specifics of a design at a park that may or may not open and when he doesn't have the money to back it up (spoiler alert: He hasn't). I highly doubt Ed Hart is paying B&M out of his own pocket to design an attraction specifically for the size, dimensions and limitations of a park that he doesn't even have a contract, lease or deal to operate yet. Not to mention, he's not negotiating for the permits needed from the local government when he doesn't even have the operation contract even in place yet. Even if all goes Hart's way, it takes several years to design, engineer and plan an attraction the size of B&M's designs for each specific park. There's no way a B&M is going to be open in that place in 2015, if it's even open.

Clearly you're a big fan of Hart and the park with emotion invested, that's fine. However there's what you want to see happen, then there's what is really happening.

Personally, I'd love to see that park return to its glory days and become something good for Louisville, it's a shame that it's just sitting there like it is now.

But, there's a difference between Press Release fodder and reality.

*Just to clarify: Hart never said that his company WOULD build a B&M coaster by 2015, but that was his intention. It's a press release people, not gospel truth.

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Financing is really not a problem IMO. I truley believe that the $$$ is already there.

Really? Because if I was running a group who submitted a bid to work for the state that was contingent on financing, I'd probably boast to them and the press that "the $$$ is already there."

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When did the Hart even say it would be a B&M coaster? Sorry If I missed that part but I just thought he said it would be a 15 million dollar coaster......

Page 31 of the KKRC_ResponseOct2012w.pdf from earlier in the thread:

"THE IMPORTANCE OF MARQUEE RIDES

It takes big rides that make a big statement to give

people in the secondary markets a reason to drive

to Louisville. This was proven in 1997, when the former

Kentucky Kingdom (before its sale to Six Flags) unveiled

Chang, the tallest stand-up steel roller coaster in

the world at the time and built by one of the top roller

coaster manufacturers in the world, Bolliger & Mabillard

of Switzerland. (This is the same manufacturer that will

supply the new coaster planned for installation at Kentucky

Kingdom in 2015.)"

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Really do you have to have more than 2 marquee attractions, not every attraction has to be big, the tallest, there has to be ambience, cleaniness, friendliness, courtesy, respect, fun, shows, water , maybe a dark ride. But a well balanced park, that makes you want to come back.

I loved the Ky Kingdom, of course was it cool with chang sure.

But all the same Lesourdsville will always be one of my favorite parks, along with ghost town in the sky, and other small parks.

Some of the best are seaside parks, next to the oceans.

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