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Decoding 2020


fryoj

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Is the line typically long? Do they usually run out of room? I’m also hoping to attend an announcement for the first time.


Yes the line gets long and yes it can run out of room... I think we got in line for Mystic Timbers announcement like 1 1/2 to 2 hours early.


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6 hours ago, sixohdieselrage said:

 

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20190427_113809.jpg

20190427_113812.jpg

 

Out of the photos you shared, I like these two the most. Can someone help me figure out what those red barns are used for during the season year in and year out? My theory is if they decide to keep those buildings, they could build the first Giga that makes a turn and then drops. I'm sure some of you on here have made a Giga in RCT that does something like that. I also feel like not all these trees will be removed and that they're trying to work around them like how Holiday World does. I can see the lift hill and station being built where Firehawk once stood. It would be nice to see it jump over the launch area of Flight of Fear, but I'm not sure how they would do that without interfering with Adventure Express. Also is just me or does it seem like there is a pattern that interwines around the red barns, turns right, does a straight away with hills, and then makes a turnaround by The Beast brake shed? As a closing remark, I see this being the same height as Intimidator 305 at Kings Dominion, although I liked the one guys post about this being 335 feet in height. That would be awesome! Thank you everyone for your time. :)

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I got to see the clearing for myself today (from Banshee, Effial Tower and WindSeeker and there is a ton of land cleared back there; in fact, they were working while we were up on the Tower! This'll be one big project!

 

*Oh, and I do hope we do get some bathrooms near Flight of Fear; that is all :P

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16 minutes ago, kirbias1 said:

20190427_113812.jpg.fff12621557d129db04b13186c1081f1.jpeg

I think it will be something like this. If you closely, the first part of the clearing heading back towards The Racer closest to maintenance sheds is angled toward the clearing back behind former FH land. 

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5 minutes ago, kirbias1 said:

I think it will be something like this. If you closely, the first part of the clearing heading back towards racer closest to maintenance sheds is angled toward the clearing back behind former FH land. 

Also Land clearing behind Banshee as the big airtime hill is going to jump over it.

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47 minutes ago, MDMC01 said:

I got to see the clearing for myself today (from Banshee, Effial Tower and WindSeeker and there is a ton of land cleared back there; in fact, they were working while we were up on the Tower! This'll be one big project!

 

*Oh, and I do hope we do get some bathrooms near Flight of Fear; that is all :P

The bathroom "dead zone." My friend and I were talking about that today. My boyfriend swore that there was one near and then could not remember where it was.

Also, were they working today? We did not see anything from WindSeeker or Racer today. And we tried to look through a couple of holes and separations in the fence. As far as we could tell, there was no activity. This was around 12ish-4ish today. 

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7 hours ago, ldhudsonjr said:

Ok guys so this is my first time being part of the speculation concerning a new ride, and I'm really enjoying reading this though I don't have much to add. I do have a question though about something I read in r/Rollercoasters. To keep it brief, in a thread about this very topic a guy said he was more expecting a wing coaster, when I asked why he said this

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? I get what he's saying about the Cincinnati area, but at the same time it was my understanding that Kings Island is more heavily attended than Carrowinds which does have a Giga, I had also read somewhere that Cedar Fair intended to build Kings Island into more of a destination park than it is right now, though I don't have a source on that.

This has been perhaps the most tired and flimsy narrative relating to this topic (what the guy from reddit said). It has resurfaced time and time again, on this site, on others, in YouTube comments sections etc. But to me it just doesn't hold up. Let me explain...

Yes, while it is true that CW and Carowinds are growing at faster rates than KI, this should not be conflated with "they have surpassed" or even met up with KI in terms of Cedar Fair's hierarchy. As you pointed out, KI already has remarkable attendance as it is, more than enough attendance to justify a giga.

For the record, as of 2016, KI alone makes up 14% of CF's revenue, CW's share was 10%, and Carowinds 7-8%.

In other words, even with CW and Carowinds expanding, they've still got some catching up to do before they can even get to KI's level .

Remember, Cedar Fair WANTED Kings Island more than any other park. IIRC Paramount used this as leverage to rid themselves of the chain wholesale in 2006, forcing Cedar Fair to buy all five of the parks. I wouldn't be surpirsed if they'd have bought some of the others anyway, but it was paramount (pun not intended) that they acquire KI.

In fact, Cedar Fair even tried to purchase Kings Island as early as 2000. Reportedly, it fell through because of a $40 million dollar tax liability that would have been contigent upon the sale (Source). Kinzel himself described it as "his favorite park outside the Cedar Fair system".

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Ok, and now on to the wing coaster theory....

So first off, there's the fact that the land clearing at this point has become way too big for what a conventional wing would take up.

And then there's Mike Koontz specifically saying he's requested a giga at Coasterstock 2018. (For those of you wondering where exactly he said this: https://youtu.be/I3BxfbjxMgc?t=1304)

AND there's the simple fact that a wing coaster from the general public's perspective would not be all that different from Banshee (large, graceful inversions, vest restraints). The same could be said for a giga to an extent, but CF has proven with Fury and Leviathan that they're OK with having a B&M hyper and giga coexist in the same park.

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But even if that's not enough...

Depending on how you look at it, wing coasters actually are much worse value than a 6000ft + giga would be, particularly if we're going by $ divided by track length (I know, odd metric - but it explains my point).

GateKeeper:  $25 million / 4,164 ft = $6003.84 per foot of track

Fury:               $30 million / 6,602 ft = $4544.07 per foot of track

6 hours ago, ohiocoasterfan said:

I also don’t get the argument that Banshee and Mystic Timbers didn’t bring in the attendance numbers they were hoping. Why would they invest more money into a record breaking coaster when the last two didn’t achieve the attendance spike they were hoping...

My thoughts exactly.

If KI doesn't warrant significant investment into a new thrill ride (as some are claiming), then why in the world would they be building any coaster at all?

We know its a B&M, and almost any B&M these days is bound to be well over $20 million (sans Dive and maybe floorless), so they might as well go the extra mile for something that will have much longer-lasting value than a wing coaster.

Wings are partially reliant on novelty IMO - novelty which diminishes... Its the giant sit-down coasters found in hypers and gigas that stand the test of time.

Going off of what was mentioned above about Millie. Its in its 20th year of operation, and its still by many accounts the signature attraction of Cedar Point (I know a decent amount of GP who still prefer it over SV).

 

 

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^ Wow! I love this answer, tons of great information here. I'm also really not sure I buy the argument that $30 million for a Giga is just WAY TOO MUCH but $24 million for Banshee was just fine. Not that it isn't a significant difference in price, but I'm sure it will also be a significant difference in results, though I love Banshee.

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I'm not sure how much Cedar Fair wanted Kings Island, so much as Dick Kinzel in particular wanted it.  Those two things were somewhat synonymous at the time though. 

Canada's Wonderland and Carowinds are both located in places where the market is growing and expected to continue growing.  It makes sense to invest in those areas for that reason.  @BeastForever's post is pretty accurate in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Pagoda Gift Shop said:

I'm not sure how much Cedar Fair wanted Kings Island, so much as Dick Kinzel in particular wanted it.  Those two things were somewhat synonymous at the time though. 

Canada's Wonderland and Carowinds are both located in places where the market is growing and expected to continue growing.  It makes sense to invest in those areas for that reason.  @BeastForever's post is pretty accurate in my opinion.

Ok so I'm still a newbie with this stuff, but as a Dayton native, I definitely was under the impression that the area of Southern Ohio near Cincinnati was growing pretty fast, and also that the area is prime real estate for an amusement park because it draws from southern Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. Where are people getting the idea that the area isn't growing? Even if Charlotte is a fast growing city, doesn't Kings Island have a regional draw that would matter to the chain as well? As I mentioned before, I had read somewhere that Cedar Fair intends Kings Island to grow from a regional to a destination park. Do you guys think that's not the case? I'm really hoping to see the park do well and would be extremely happy if it got to the point where it could compete with Cedar Point. Just wondering what knowledgeable fans think of that idea.

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1 hour ago, Ben43065 said:

Just wondering where did you get the revenue figures? @BeastForever

It’s from the annual presentation for investors, there was a pair of pie charts, one showing revenue, one showing earnings after expenses.  You can find these on Cedar Fairs corporate website, but the last year they provided this information was 2016.

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7 hours ago, Pagoda Gift Shop said:

I'm not sure how much Cedar Fair wanted Kings Island, so much as Dick Kinzel in particular wanted it.  Those two things were somewhat synonymous at the time though. 

Canada's Wonderland and Carowinds are both located in places where the market is growing and expected to continue growing.  It makes sense to invest in those areas for that reason.  @BeastForever's post is pretty accurate in my opinion.

Agree with this 110%! If you look at where CW is located, it is in the second fastest growing metropolitan area in N.A after Dallas (growing between 100-120K per year). Toronto also attracts nearly 43 million visitors per year and that number keeps growing, plus they're getting a resort in 2020. I know KI makes slightly more revenue than CW, but that's due to the exchange rate (30% difference). So with all these factors, it is smarter business-wise to invest more in CW than KI. KI is a great park, but CW, Carowinds and CGA have bigger priority at the moment and this can and will change very soon. As for KI, I'm going to guess a record-breaking wing coaster will come in 2020, with heavy theming and a very unique layout. 

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^ While yes Carowinds and CGA are receiving larger investments then they were previously do not get the impression Kings Island is being put on the back burner. Cedar Point for example is not growing a large amount but they still receive large investments due to how much revenue the park brings in, Somewhat Same situation for Kings Island (Even though Kings Island is still breaking their attendance records), Kings Island still brings in a huge amount of revenue and because of that the park will continue to receive large investments

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49 minutes ago, MIAParkman said:

Agree with this 110%! If you look at where CW is located, it is in the second fastest growing metropolitan area in N.A after Dallas (growing between 100-120K per year). Toronto also attracts nearly 43 million visitors per year and that number keeps growing, plus they're getting a resort in 2020. I know KI makes slightly more revenue than CW, but that's due to the exchange rate (30% difference). So with all these factors, it is smarter business-wise to invest more in CW than KI. KI is a great park, but CW, Carowinds and CGA have bigger priority at the moment and this can and will change very soon. As for KI, I'm going to guess a record-breaking wing coaster will come in 2020, with heavy theming and a very unique layout. 

Investing in one park does not mean they can't invest in another. They have built/are building 4 major coasters at KI in 11 years. In that same time period Cedar Point, which dwarfs both CS and KI in revenue and attendance received two new coasters and two redo coasters(Rougarou and SV). KBF, which is on par with CP in revenue and attendance got a wild mouse, lost a boomerang and had a coaster refurb. CW got 3 coasters. Clearly they are investing in KI. They are actively building a B&M there right now. How can you say that the other parks are a bigger priority when their single biggest investment this year is going into KI? I don't see the logic there. 

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1 hour ago, Ben43065 said:

^ While yes Carowinds and CGA are receiving larger investments then they were previously do not get the impression Kings Island is being put on the back burner. Cedar Point for example is not growing a large amount but they still receive large investments due to how much revenue the park brings in, Somewhat Same situation for Kings Island (Even though Kings Island is still breaking their attendance records), Kings Island still brings in a huge amount of revenue and because of that the park will continue to receive large investments

Cedar Fair rotates their large park investments. One year, Cedar Point will get minor upgrades, and KI might get major upgrades and a flat ride or something (i.e. 2019). They really seem to try and avoid opening two coasters in Ohio in the same year as well. This is because KI and CP are now meant to compliment each other. Not to even mention that Kings Island is one of their major focuses (i.e., we get a lot more new rides rather than hand-me-downs from other CF parks). 

Also, CF basically bought their only other park that was major competition in OH at the time (they shut Geauga Lake's amusement park down shortly after acquiring KI). Now that Cedar Fair has both major Ohio amusement parks. There is no way they want to give up their Ohio monopoly. Especially with the influence that KI and CP have had on the amusement park industry. It also gives Cedar Point bragging rights.

Kings Island has cyclical large investments, but Cedar Fair pumps significant amounts of money into KI every year. It seems to go in 3-4 year cycles. It goes coaster/thrill ride (Firehawk from a closed amusement park (2007), WindSeeker (2011), Banshee (2014), Mystic Timbers (2017), and B&M mystery coaster (2020), then we get renovations, flat rides, and major improvements in the years we do not get major thrill rides. This does not apply to Soak City, as they do major upgrades more sporadically.

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2 hours ago, fryoj said:

KBF, which is on par with CP in revenue and attendance got a wild mouse, lost a boomerang and had a coaster refurb. 

Keep in mind, KBF is open year round. 

 

Also, if anyone wants to see the video of the flyover yesterday, here it is. I'll reload it later. Not sure why, but I uploaded it in 4k, but it's not available as an option on watching it. 

 

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2 hours ago, fryoj said:

Investing in one park does not mean they can't invest in another. They have built/are building 4 major coasters at KI in 11 years. In that same time period Cedar Point, which dwarfs both CS and KI in revenue and attendance received two new coasters and two redo coasters(Rougarou and SV). KBF, which is on par with CP in revenue and attendance got a wild mouse, lost a boomerang and had a coaster refurb. CW got 3 coasters. Clearly they are investing in KI. They are actively building a B&M there right now. How can you say that the other parks are a bigger priority when their single biggest investment this year is going into KI? I don't see the logic there. 

Wonderland got 4 coasters (1 family + 3 200-300ft B&M coasters), massive water park expansions, a new themed area and getting a resort, plus CW is also in line for a major expansion ala Carowinds. I was at the media day for YS and this was confirmed from upper management. And yes I am aware of that, but I don't see a giga as a wise business move for KI yet. Maybe I'm wrong, hope I am but I'm going strictly business wise. The ROI for Diamondback and Banshee was very weak and for MT, a family thrill ride, a huge success. Obviously, 2020 is Kings Island's year, but there's zero evidence this is a giga coaster, it can be anything. I'm also saying all this since I am a shareholder of CF and The main parks for most large investments are KBF, Caro, CGA, CP and even CW will get heavy investments as well. This doesn't exclude the other parks, but these four parks are the main ones. 

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14 minutes ago, MIAParkman said:

Wonderland got 4 coasters (1 family + 3 200-300ft B&M coasters), massive water park expansions, a new themed area and getting a resort, plus CW is also in line for a major expansion ala Carowinds. I was at the media day for YS and this was confirmed from upper management. And yes I am aware of that, but I don't see a giga as a wise business move for KI yet. Maybe I'm wrong, hope I am but I'm going strictly business wise. The ROI for Diamondback and Banshee was very weak and for MT, a family thrill ride, a huge success. Obviously, 2020 is Kings Island's year, but there's zero evidence this is a giga coaster, it can be anything. I'm also saying all this since I am a shareholder of CF and The main parks for most large investments are KBF, Caro, CGA, CP and even CW will get heavy investments as well. This doesn't exclude the other parks, but these four parks are the main ones. 

I just don’t understand how a Wing coaster (Or any B&M) after 3 years makes total sense but the second it’s a giga coaster after three years it’s finical ruin for Cedar Fair. No matter what B&M they’re building it’s going to be expensive, what Cedar Fair is going to look at is what coaster model will they get the most ROI, and it seems wing coasters, which are expensive didn’t seem to perform all that great at Cedar Point. Now look at valravn, it constantly has long line and wasn’t all that expensive compared to GateKeeper, thus we’re now seeing more Dive coasters being built. Now Fury 325 was a MASSIVE success for Carowinds and In my opinion Cedar Fair saw the success of Fury which had a high ROI and will install one at one of the most important parks in the chain.

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