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Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks


Hawaiian Coasters 325

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4 minutes ago, Kenban said:

I thought this was interesting.  Warning this is a preprint medical article and has not been peer reviewed.

Stability of the virus on surfaces and at different temperatures, in short at 4c (39f) the virus is basically stable and most of the culture was still alive after 2 weeks, at 22c (99f) the virus is undetectable after 2 days, and at the extreme of 70c (158f) not detectable after 5 minutes.  It also tests several surfaces, for instance on paper its not detectable after 3 hours, but on Plastic or Stainless Steel it takes more than 4 days.

That could be a problem with buckles. Having people buckle seatbelts could be a huge source of spread, if someone with the virus were to touch it.

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46 minutes ago, 139Signal27 said:

I haven’t been following this thread, so I apologize if this has already been discussed.

Do you think the park will overhaul Urgent Scare to avoid the unfavorable connection it would have with the pandemic? Regardless of the facts, some will assume the park is making light of the situation.

I wouldn’t be opposed (not because I am offended, but because I think it’s time for that maze to go). Thoughts?

I was thinking about this the other night. If I recall KD had a theme to miners who died in a cave and that theme was quickly scrapped after outcry. I would expect Urgent scare not to make a come back due to the virus.

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Virginia has just extended their stay at home order until June 10th.  So that is basically Kings Dominion and Busch Gardens Williamsburg.

I have my doubts that off season maintenance is finished, and all the rides tested.  Plus the parks need time to hire and train employees.  Assuming the order ends on the 10th as currently scheduled, would it be possible for the parks to open before July?  Also there is no way to add that many days to the 2020 season.

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2 minutes ago, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

Wow there is so much negativity on here. I understand this is a scary time, but to say the season is over when we are at the end of March is kinda silly. 

I agree but I'm just looking at the fact we still haven't flattened the curve and once you do you still have to worry about a second out break. Then people are still going to be scared likely to travel or visiting amusement parks. 

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I think what we all need to realize is the curve in Virginia and here in Ohio are drastically different, Virginia was very late in ordering any kind of measures to prevent the spread of this virus and their expected peak is mid to late may while ours is Mid April this explains Virginia's Governors actions, but Ohio is expected to be just about at the end of the downslope of the curve by this time. 

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To be fair, the disease can have a two-week incubation period. We couldn't start to show signs of flattening the curve until this week. And we've seen a slight tightening of restrictions over the last two weeks, which means that we won't have an accurate sense of how current social distancing measures are helping the curve for another week or two.

To @Hawaiian Coasters 325's point, though, I do feel like too much speculation, positive or negative, does drag down the already tense and dreary mood. This coaster season might be a wash, or it might not be. A second wave might come, or it might not. Optimism might let you down, or it might not. Treating anything not in the immediate future as a given is a bit overzealous--no one in the world knows exactly how the next several months are going to go. All we can do is keep our distance and wash our hands and keep making the best of where we're at right now.

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Without science modern amusement parks would not exist.  Why fans reject science now is puzzling to me.  

46 minutes ago, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

Wow there is so much negativity on here. I understand this is a scary time, but to say the season is over when we are at the end of March is kinda silly. 

Perhaps you can explain a scenario where the parks are able to open this season?  Be prepared to back up you conclusions with scientific evidence. 

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This is important folks, very important.  We are in danger of loosing some of our most important military assets through this pandemic.   Still think it is a hoax, the flu or just a cold?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/aircraft-carrier-coronavirus-outbreak/

The tight living conditions on a warship are no better than on a cruise ship.  

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On 3/31/2020 at 10:12 AM, Kenban said:

Virginia has just extended their stay at home order until June 10th.  So that is basically Kings Dominion and Busch Gardens Williamsburg.

I have my doubts that off season maintenance is finished, and all the rides tested.  Plus the parks need time to hire and train employees.  Assuming the order ends on the 10th as currently scheduled, would it be possible for the parks to open before July?  Also there is no way to add that many days to the 2020 season.

 

See my post on page 26 for a more detailed break down of how this may play out...

 

On 3/31/2020 at 10:44 AM, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

Wow there is so much negativity on here. I understand this is a scary time, but to say the season is over when we are at the end of March is kinda silly. 

 

On 3/31/2020 at 11:00 AM, TombRaiderFTW said:

To be fair, the disease can have a two-week incubation period. We couldn't start to show signs of flattening the curve until this week. And we've seen a slight tightening of restrictions over the last two weeks, which means that we won't have an accurate sense of how current social distancing measures are helping the curve for another week or two.

To @Hawaiian Coasters 325's point, though, I do feel like too much speculation, positive or negative, does drag down the already tense and dreary mood. This coaster season might be a wash, or it might not be. A second wave might come, or it might not. Optimism might let you down, or it might not. Treating anything not in the immediate future as a given is a bit overzealous--no one in the world knows exactly how the next several months are going to go. All we can do is keep our distance and wash our hands and keep making the best of where we're at right now.

 

As I mentioned way earlier in this thread, this thread more than any really starts to give a glimpse as to the age range of the poster.  I don't mean that good or bad (because there are pro's and con's to both), but the older posters on this thread have experience and history as part of their reasoning, whereas a teenager doesn't (and I know there are exceptions in both instances as I know people in their 50s that still believe KI will open mid-May and I know people in their 20s saying this season is done). 

None of us on here lived thru something like this and the closest thing would be the 1918 pandemic.  But many on here lived through 9/11 and the Cincinnati riots of 2001 and have a glimpse at, albeit much different, at how things can play out...

Last I checked, this is a thread about the Impact of the Coronavirus on Theme Parks.  We have posters, such as myself, that have given detail and explanation and reasoning as to why we think the season is a either a wash or a very late opening.  These include, and not limited to (you have time on your hands go back and re-read this thread!):

  • We did not lock down like some of the most restrictive countries.  See my post on page 28 for comparisons.  The curve lines reflect this.  Those same countries are now experiencing the second wave.  We will have the second wave and it could be worse than the first given we are not as strict as those that are now in that phase.
  • Some parks in Japan that had more restrictive measures started to re-open and then re-closed.
  • 1918 Pandemic had three waves - Spring 1918, Fall 1918, and Spring 1919.  Travel was a lot different then and it still couldn't be contained.  The second wave was the deadliest of the three waves.
  • K-12 will probably be done with in-person rest of school year.  Many are contingency planning for not returning to in-person in the fall for next school year either.
  • Universities have already contingency planned for remote learning in the fall.  We are starting to see some already go to remote learning for Summer Semester.
  • Major sporting events done.
    • No spring college sports.
    • NBA has said they will scrap season if they cannot resume by August.
    • Olympics postponed until next year.
    • PGA Golf tournaments have not resumed - daily attendance at an event would be a busy day attendance at KI.
    • Wimbledon will probably officially announce tomorrow they are postponing until next year.
    • NFL industry experts believing their season is not gonna happen.  NFL stadiums being used as hospitals.
    • Golf courses in several states are closed - cannot get much more social distancing outdoors than golf.
    • Many state parks are closed.
    • Outdoor playgrounds in Ohio are closed.
    • All the other sports.
  • Major movie releases have been pushed back a whole year.
  • Reasoning why there will be a date (and probably earlier than most would expect), where financially it doesn't make sense to open a regional park.
  • Disney and Universal have closed indefinitely.  For remaining employees, Disney is paying thru mid-April, but they have basically let everyone go.  Architect departments - gone.  Construction departments - gone.  Imagineering - gone.  They are a big enough company to weather this storm if they believed they would re-open this year.  Some of the shuttered departments could continue and have plans in place to entice people back with new attractions and such and they are not doing that...
  • Disney bigwigs either are now not taking a salary or anywhere from a 30%-50% pay cut.  One thing bigwigs don't do is cut their own pay unless they feel this is a long-term shut-down.  Even when companies were going through financial and legal and regulatory trouble, the CEO's still kept their pay, got bonuses, and raises...
  • Latest total number of deaths estimated for US are somewhere around 120,000 deaths.  We are currently around 3,600 deaths.  Largest daily count by any country is under 1,000 deaths (somewhere in the 800-900 range) and US current max day is 560 deaths.  I suspect the USA will exceed 1,000 daily deaths, but for argument sake, let's assume 1,000 deaths/day.  So doing the math, it would be around 120 days (4 months) to reach 120,000 deaths at 1,000 deaths per day.  Obviously the count will go higher at it's peak, but we should assume close to 4 months from now before things start to loosen up...
  • None of the modeling and predictions are accounting for the second wave - and it will happen.  Restrictions will slowly be lifted, wait two weeks and re-assess.  Amusement/leisure type activities will be some of the last to open. 
  • Listening to the science and advice of experts on this situation.
  • Overall sense from industry in what they are doing not in what they are saying.
  • Interpolating from all of this and our own life experiences.

And then we have those that think an opening is imminent.  Their reasons include, but not limited to:

  • The parks are still selling passes and daily admission tickets (again only revenue stream right now).
  • Disney started to allow bookings beginning June 1st (even though the already refunded through June 30th) and are offering free dining (again only revenue stream).
  • The websites show a mid-May opening (only a place holder and probably more to do with stock market price - KD still shows a mid-May opening BTW despite Governor stay at home order thru June 10th).
  • KI is opening a new coaster (not a valid reason).
  • They have to open (why?).
  • They wouldn't screw the enthusiasts over like that (why).

Now the fact of the matter is none of us know for sure.  Maybe an existing drug is on the market that we will find cures it and is readily available and all this changes.  Maybe this virus that some people say is man-made has an expiration date of April 30th.  Maybe everyone starts to take this seriously and not hold coronavirus parties and lick toilet seats and actually self isolates and this thing simply disappears as there is no new host for it to go to and infect. 

But if we have to follow the wait for a vaccine route, this current situation is likely to continue in some form or fashion for the next 18 months...and everything will not open at once during that time frame...

 

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1 hour ago, King Ding Dong said:

Without science modern amusement parks would not exist.  Why fans reject science now is puzzling to me.  

Perhaps you can explain a scenario where the parks are able to open this season?  Be prepared to back up you conclusions with scientific evidence. 

I don't know if this will happen, but here is a scenario: they find a drug or combo of drugs that can reliably treat the symptoms for a high percentage of the worst case victoms of Covid-19.  Perhaps that is the Z-pack/Hydro Chloroquine (sp?) that was just approved as an emergency measure, perhaps it is something else like using the anti-bodies from people that have recovered or caught the virus and never showed symptoms, but if they can treat the people that have the most severe cases, add in temperature sensors like I've seen in China at the metal detectors, I can envision a scenario where the park opens up around Memorial Day with little fear of death.  People may continue to get sick, similar to the flue, but if the fear of death is removed from the average citizen things can get back to "normal" or at least closer to "normal".  I'd imagine those with compromised health should remain extra careful and probably those who are in regular contact with them.

No scientific evidence, but not a sci-fi scenario either.  I'm not saying that it even probably, I'm not qualified to know how any of the drugs they are testing right now are working, but I do think once they have a relatively safe and reliable cure the nation in general can move forward.  Unlike standard times, it won't take forever for something that "works" to get approval, cause when people are on their death beds, you kind of put "safety" aside and try something that has worked on someone else.  The more it keeps working, the more a doctor is willing to try it a bit sooner.

Theme parks aside, my hope and beliefs are still in the medical research and implementation of the scientific community that some combo of drugs will be found in short order (ie end of the month) to keep the projected 40-80k deaths well below that mark.  I hope I'm right.

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