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Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks


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8 minutes ago, Kenban said:

Six Flags has already announced they are doing something similar for pass holders.  Basically however long your home park is closed this year you can use your 2020 pass through the end of that month in 2021.  If anything it is the Six Flags members getting screwed, they are continuing to charge the monthly fee, and giving free months at the end of your membership, which means after you cancel.  The upside for members is they are getting the next tier benefits for the rest of the year, but at the same time that means a lot more customers will get free skip the line passes every visit.  Just an FYI if anyone ever sees Six Flags offer free months on memberships, that is the same deal, you get the months after you cancel.

I am expecting Cedar Fair will come to the same conclusion once they have to move the opening date far enough it will not be possible to add enough days to the operating calendar.  I am expecting 2020 annual passes will work for a portion of 2021, and there will be heavily discounted upgrade options to finish off 2021.  The big problem is most parks are now giving the end of the season for free if they buy a pass for the next year, it might not make much sense to upgrade to a full 2021 annual pass if you already are getting half the season due to having a 2020 annual pass.

But then If one has their pass overflow into the following season, wouldn’t they have to buy the passes at full price and then have to buy another pass a few weeks later for the following season. 3 passes for 2 years?

 

This is the catch 22 that all tourism companies are having to deal with because of this pandemic.

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1 hour ago, Kenban said:

Six Flags has already announced they are doing something similar for pass holders.  Basically however long your home park is closed this year you can use your 2020 pass through the end of that month in 2021.  If anything it is the Six Flags members getting screwed, they are continuing to charge the monthly fee, and giving free months at the end of your membership, which means after you cancel.  The upside for members is they are getting the next tier benefits for the rest of the year, but at the same time that means a lot more customers will get free skip the line passes every visit.  Just an FYI if anyone ever sees Six Flags offer free months on memberships, that is the same deal, you get the months after you cancel.

I am expecting Cedar Fair will come to the same conclusion once they have to move the opening date far enough it will not be possible to add enough days to the operating calendar.  I am expecting 2020 annual passes will work for a portion of 2021, and there will be heavily discounted upgrade options to finish off 2021.  The big problem is most parks are now giving the end of the season for free if they buy a pass for the next year, it might not make much sense to upgrade to a full 2021 annual pass if you already are getting half the season due to having a 2020 annual pass.

Under this format, here is how it would likely play out:

2020 passes valid until end of June 2021

Most people will sit out month of July and wait for the 2022 passes to go on sale mid-August with the "buy for next year and get the rest of this year free" promotion because why buy a partial pass for the remaining 6 months when a month later they will give away 5 months free...

Conclusion: from July 1, 2021 until 2022 passes go on sale will be lightly attended as everyone waits for the promotion...

Now Cedar Fair with all its properties is a lot different than a single park like Kennywood.  What about Michigan's Adventure with no Haunt or Winterfest - you can get this cycle way out of whack and/or have a period of time that is normally busy be empty because of people waiting to get back on a yearly cycle...most will skip between when the pass expires and the new one goes on sale and gamble that they will offer the 'buy for next year and get in this year free" promotion....  What about the Schlitterbahn water parks...

The proposals LegoLand New York and Kennywood offered are a lot simpler to develop and administer than what Cedar Fair would have to deal with in the event they go this route.  I still think they have a date in mind that if they cannot open by said date, they will simply scrap the season and make 2020 passes good in 2021.  With as many parks as they own all on different calendars, etc., that might be the simplest way to minimize all the various scenarios and outcomes and complaints and keep the complainers down to the smallest level (recognizing they will get complaints regardless of what they do)... Or they go the SIX membership route...

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1 hour ago, gforce1994 said:

But then If one has their pass overflow into the following season, wouldn’t they have to buy the passes at full price and then have to buy another pass a few weeks later for the following season. 3 passes for 2 years?

 

This is the catch 22 that all tourism companies are having to deal with because of this pandemic.

I see your point. If our 2020 passes were good thru June 30, 2021 for instance, I'm thinking they would then offer some sort of package deal for the rest of 2021 + 2022. So there's not the mental aspect of 'did I just buy 3 passes for ~2-years?'. But I'm sure there are already marketing people way smarter than me trying to figure out all the scenario's!

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4 hours ago, gforce1994 said:

But then If one has their pass overflow into the following season, wouldn’t they have to buy the passes at full price and then have to buy another pass a few weeks later for the following season. 3 passes for 2 years?

Kennywood has already announced there will be discounts to extend the pass through the rest of the season next year, so we know that it will not be full price.  But how big of a discount will it be?  Enough to justify buying one to fill the gap?

Currently my thinking is, your 2020 pass is good through June, 2022 passes will likely go on sale in August with the rest of the season free.  Just skip going to the park in July and get 2 and half years for the price of 2.  If I was in management I would offer a combo 2021/2022 pass to 2020 pass holders at a slight up charge over what a one year pass would typically cost.

But this is all still very fluid, we have no idea when the parks will open this year.  It is very possible, and maybe even likely this is not the last time this changes.

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53 minutes ago, Kenban said:

Kennywood has already announced there will be discounts to extend the pass through the rest of the season next year, so we know that it will not be full price.  But how big of a discount will it be?  Enough to justify buying one to fill the gap?

Currently my thinking is, your 2020 pass is good through June, 2022 passes will likely go on sale in August with the rest of the season free.  Just skip going to the park in July and get 2 and half years for the price of 2.  If I was in management I would offer a combo 2021/2022 pass to 2020 pass holders at a slight up charge over what a one year pass would typically cost.

But this is all still very fluid, we have no idea when the parks will open this year.  It is very possible, and maybe even likely this is not the last time this changes.

But then one would end up paying more for the pass for the following season (renewals cost less than flat out new passes).

Also to complicate that matter is that most parks schedule their big events for July. Look at Island Nights, Carnivale, July Fourth Firework Spectacular, and more. If I only came in for the rides, I’d be fine with that, but we come in for more than just the rides.

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6 million Americans filled for unemployment last week. Considering this is going to go one for 1-2 more months at a bare minimum, and the Fed projecting unemployment to possibly reach a maximum of 30%... when the parks open they will not be heavily attended, this will certainly have a long term effect on the industry.

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7 minutes ago, flightoffear1996 said:

Those unemployment numbers are scary but they will hopefully go down quickly once people can get back to work. we are in this for the long haul. 

Yes, but the effects of losing a paycheck for 3 months will not go away overnight.

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21 hours ago, CoastersRZ said:

It is only April 1st.  Yes, it is questionable whether the park will be able to open mid-May, but to say that the park will not be able to open at all this season is a bit early to send in the white flag.  Things could be drastically different come August.  We just don`t know.  Heck, look how drastically things have changed in the last few weeks even.  Who would have thought on March 1st, that Ohio would essentially be locked down now, going on week three?

According to the press conference yesterday, they have no idea when our summer will return to normal, but it is not expected to be anytime soon.  https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohios-top-doctor-i-wish-i-could-give-you-hope-about-your-summer/32009489  We can expect to hear more restrictions in today's press conference...

And you mention how drastically things have changed in the last few weeks - true - and every time something changes, it is more restrictive.  Menard's just announced today no children under 16 in their stores.  Zip-Dip, a local west-side ice cream shop with no indoor facilities except for the employees, opened and could remain open under the Orders and announced earlier this week they were re-closing out of abundance of safety.  We still have a lot more restricting to do before they start to loosen...  

The day will come when the restrictions can be loosened, but we are nowhere near that yet and once they do, it will be slowly - open up a sector and evaluate and either shut back down to another spike or proceed with opening another sector.  For example, I would not be surprised at all if K-12 starts next school year as remote learning.  Universities have already gone to remote learning for summer semester and most have contingency planned for doing it in the fall as well.  

Anyone watching and paying attention to the news about this virus since it broke in January in China and watched what restrictive measures they were doing knew that some form of social distancing would occur once it hit here - albeit not as restrictive here as other countries.  And watch what is happening there now that they have loosened up, another outbreak, so they close back down...not paying attention to history is living in a bubble, even if that history is recent, it is still a precedent being set...now of course lots of things could happen to change this course - an existing drug on the market turns out to be a cure and it is in plentiful supply would be a game changer...and hopefully a vaccine is found and readily available, but estimates are we are 18 months away from that...short of that, this will follow a somewhat known trajectory and course...  

I have outlined the compare and contrast of other countries back on page 28 for those that are interested in seeing the differences.  My post on page 37 details in a long format that most haven't read LOL why I believe the season will be a wash...and as I pointed out in that post, look at the anticipated death total now expected in the US and where were are now and do an interpolation - we are months away...and none of these account for the second wave that is certain to happen.

I understand people wanting optimism and I like to be optimistic as well, but sometimes we need to manage our expectations.  Optimism is what has hurt countries in failing to take and address the seriousness of this pandemic in a timely fashion.  This is our new normal for awhile. 

Amusement parks take a back seat to the more pressing issues and will probably be one of the last sectors re-opened...people need to get back to work and catch up on bills, etc.  Amusement parks and movies and other leisure activities will take a long time to recover...Heck, some may be of the mindset "I was forced to live without it and managed just fine" and simply quit an activity they previously enjoyed and save their money for other things...when we get back to "normal", people may not eat out as much anymore or go to the movies or play golf or travel to amusement parks or whatever it is they previously did...

You mentioned August...here was one of my shorter posts LOL outlining what I think would happen IF they could open in August...

On 3/26/2020 at 5:01 PM, disco2000 said:

Another thing to consider, and I know several people have said this as well, including myself, that many will still fear being around people even after the all-clear is given.  It will take time to return to some sort of “normalcy”.

For example purposes, if for some reason the park is able to open August 15th, by that time most of the company picnics and what not will have been cancelled and that is a significant revenue stream.

A lot of people have lost their jobs and/or will use their discretionary funds differently, so maybe the daily admission revenue disappears as they use the money on other things.

Cedar Fair announced that last year season pass holders made up around 50% of the attendance, thus company outings and daily admission make up the rest.

If they lose the company outings and daily admission portion, a significant “new” revenue stream is now gone.

They already have the pass holder money, so if they project that opening After August 15th results in the only attendance they would get for the rest of the year would be pass holders with meal and drink plans, then they lose money opening this year as they would have expenditures with no new revenue stream…

Under this scenario, if they open August 15th and announce all 2020 passes purchased will be valid in 2021, then they lose even more money by opening in August because they would have expenditures the rest of 2020 and then all of 2021.  Your pass is for 12 months of revenue and expenditures, not 18 months...

If the projections are that only 10 percent (or whatever percent they decide) would be daily admissions or company outings if they open after August 15th (or whatever date they use to make the decision), financially at some point it makes sense to not open and to have your 2020 season pass only valid for calendar year 2021 and not 5 months of 2020 and all of 2021…

Will they have people take to Facebook and complain KI is never getting any of their money ever again in this situation - yes - but no matter what they do, people are going to say that - people are already saying that now.  They will use all their information and take into account the number of people that would "never visit again" and if that is offset by new people that would be enticed by whatever pass offerings they offer for 2021, then that is what they will do.
 

 

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1 hour ago, Benjamin22 said:

6 million Americans filled for unemployment last week. Considering this is going to go one for 1-2 more months at a bare minimum, and the Fed projecting unemployment to possibly reach a maximum of 30%... when the parks open they will not be heavily attended, this will certainly have a long term effect on the industry.

This is my main concern for all theme parks and other entertainment. Even when/if the parks open, I don't think many families are going to be making many trips this year and are going to hold off on any pass purchases. The fear being instilled in people is something that is going to take a long time to shake off. The timing couldn't have been worse for KI with Orion opening this season. I feel for the smaller parks out there that are going to struggle through this.

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And a company is looking at lobster blood and has patents for it's work with other viruses...according to the article lobsters have a blood-like substance in their bodies called hemolymph that contains hemocyanin, a protein that carries oxygen to the lobster’s cells. The hemocyanin has anti-viral and immune-boosting properties, and already is being used in the development of cancer vaccines and treatments...

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/01/news/bangor/maine-scientist-lobster-bloods-anti-viral-properties-could-help-with-covid-19/

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Get ready for an above average hurricane season.  I would agree there is no manual for handling a stay in home order and evacuation order at the same time.  
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/02/above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-including-possible-major-hurricane-strike/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_cwg-predict-10am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

We need to start planning for where and how we shelter all these people and maintain social distancing.  Now.   Are we going to?  Given recent history absolutely not.  A few months from now the talking heads on TV and politicians will claim, “How could we have predicted this?  Nobody believed this was possible.”  
 

In order to hear, one must listen.

The governor of one state “just found out” asymptomatic individuals can be carriers.  Just found out.  Let that sink in.  

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10 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

Get ready for an above average hurricane season.  I would agree there is no manual for handling a stay in home order and evacuation order at the same time.  
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/02/above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-including-possible-major-hurricane-strike/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_cwg-predict-10am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

We need to start planning for where and how we shelter all these people and maintain social distancing.  Now.   Are we going to?  Given recent history absolutely not.  A few months from now the talking heads on TV and politicians will claim, “How could we have predicted this?  Nobody believed this was possible.”  

But according to many that post, the Coronavirus situation will be gone by hurricane season:P

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2 hours ago, KIghostguy said:

Dick Kinzel said that 2009 was an “excellent” year for Kings Island in terms of attendance. 

Both can be true at the same time.  There may have been a huge drop (idk) and Kinzel used his corporate speak to convey “given the circumstances, attendance was excellent”.

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4 hours ago, Benjamin22 said:

6 million Americans filled for unemployment last week. Considering this is going to go one for 1-2 more months at a bare minimum, and the Fed projecting unemployment to possibly reach a maximum of 30%... when the parks open they will not be heavily attended, this will certainly have a long term effect on the industry.

For the record, this will include me. I just found out today I was permanently laid off from my store. It was such a great job and my coworkers  were like family, so I'm crushed. 

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15 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

Both can be true at the same time.  There may have been a huge drop (idk) and Kinzel used his corporate speak to convey “given the circumstances, attendance was excellent”.

Without exact figures, we may never know for certain. For the record, the full quote is, "Kings Island, of course, we felt had tremendous potential and that ride [Diamondback] certainly gave it, I don’t know if it was a record year, but gave it [Kings Island] an excellent year."

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35 minutes ago, Joshua said:

For the record, this will include me. I just found out today I was permanently laid off from my store. It was such a great job and my coworkers  were like family, so I'm crushed. 

So sorry to hear that...I think in general, society is still in a denial phase over this whole situation...or maybe in shock...or maybe simply enjoying the slow down of life..

I think a lot of companies tried to weather the storm in March and hope it would pass, and now that it is becoming clear to most that this is not going to end anytime soon, companies make these difficult decisions...and as good people like you start to get hit with being laid off or furloughed (and for purposes of this situation there is a difference in what each term means...), this stuff will start to get real to a lot more people...

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@Joshua.   So sorry.  Every time I hear about someone loosing a job it is heart wrenching. My wife lost hers in the months after 9/11  shortly after she found out she was pregnant and I had just graduated into (at the time) one of the worst tech job markets. I was a wreck. 

I hope you have friends and family that you can lean on.  Things will get better but until then be as strong as you can and fight on. 

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This thread has been cleaned up. Remember the topic is Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks. 

I am going to repeat what I said earlier in another thread 

Please avoid posting political opinions. That is blantely against the TOS. Quoting what was said by political leaders that goes with the topic at hand is ok. It is when we begin adding personal opinions and remarks about the political leaders actions is when the TOS starts getting violated. Further violations will constitute a warning. This is the last reminder.

 

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One thing rubbing me a little bit wrong these days is that many of us have purchased events or passes that have been "postponed". So when they are postponed instead of cancelled, you can't get a refund. And people need cash right now. I'm wondering how other people feel about this in regards to Kings Island? When people maybe threw down hundreds or perhaps $1,000+ or more 6-9 months ago but now find themselves scrambling to pay the bills. Personally I think parks---and all sorts of other entertainment events---should start offering refunds asap. Because its the right thing to do.

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56 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said:

One thing rubbing me a little bit wrong these days is that many of us have purchased events or passes that have been "postponed". So when they are postponed instead of cancelled, you can't get a refund. And people need cash right now. I'm wondering how other people feel about this in regards to Kings Island? When people maybe threw down hundreds or perhaps $1,000+ or more 6-9 months ago but now find themselves scrambling to pay the bills. Personally I think parks---and all sorts of other entertainment events---should start offering refunds asap. Because its the right thing to do.

 

It is a double-edge sword.  Would I like my family's money refunded and we decide at a later date if we will purchase - absolutely.  But we paid the money and CF has spent/allocated where that money is going and these businesses have bills to pay too.  If all these venues started paying refunds, then these companies disappear...and if they disappear too fast, the creditors are in line long before pass holders are to get any money back...

The hard fact and truth of the matter is when someone purchases a pass in one year for the following year (or a gift card or any advance payment), one is essentially purchasing it on good faith that the company will still be around when it is time to use such purchase, whether it be season passes or gift cards, or anything of value bought in advance.  We are also assuming that we will be in good health and not dead in 6-9 months when the park will be open. 

There is always a risk to purchasing for something in advance.  Usually a purchase like this is a safe bet...and unless CF never opens again, we will get our value just at a later date...

The park sold passes in 2019 at a discount for the 2020 season.  We as consumers either decide to take advantage of that offer and accept the risk or wait until the following year and pay whatever the going rate is at that time.  Whenever something is paid for in advance, the risk always exists that something may happen to render that purchase useless.  Whether it is an event like this, a company goes out of business, or someone is scammed by paying someone to build them a deck and then that person takes off and the money is never seen again and a deck isn't built...

It's life...and sometimes life sucks...but for many years, we got a great deal out of purchasing the year before for the following year... If I added up the savings differential over the years we have had passes, the savings more than pays for what we paid for passes for 2020...I know that isn't money in my pocket now, but that savings did allow us to spend it on other things throughout the years.

Many know I feel like this season will be wash....but I also feel like CF will do whatever they can to make it right.  If they do not open this year, the passes will simply move to 2021, but I also believe they will develop many more opportunities in 2021 for pass holders to try to make up the best they can.  If they are able to open this year, I am sure they will do everything they can to make up for things that were beyond their control. 

Does it pay my bills now, no, but it pays their bills so that they can offer a park to us when the time is right...

One thing this will do, at least for the short term, is modify people's spending habits and not buy a pass until the following year...or pay for anything in advance.  It will be interesting to see what CF does to try to overcome this new consumer spending habit...

I know many people that never pay for anything in advance.  My one friend would always tell me he took the $100 he was going to spend on a pass in August and invested it and the money made on that investment paid for the now $140 pass in April....

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