PatchesC Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, disco2000 said: A couple of nuggets from the FUN press release: Reduce its capital spending for calendar year 2020, including the suspension of at least $75-100 million of non-essential capital projects planned for the 2020 and 2021 operating seasons. The Company now anticipates spending $85-100 million on capital improvements in calendar year 2020. So all new for 2021 may become all new for 2022... Should the park closures extend later into the year, the Company is prepared to activate additional cost-cutting and cash-savings measures. The Company is also taking steps to secure additional liquidity and address any potential debt covenant issues, in the event that the COVID-19 crisis continues. In contrast, SIX said they were: Eliminating at least $30-40 million of additional non-labor operating costs in 2020, including the increased investments the company announced in its fourth quarter 2019 earnings release to improve the guest experiences. Some 2020 anticipated attractions may get moved to 2021 (they were silent on what these expenditures were for). But like FUN, probably all new for 2021 may become all new for 2022 as they have to slide capital projects back a year... At this time, the company believes it has sufficient liquidity to meet its cash obligations until the opening of the 2021 operating season A lot of what they announced are comparable...reducing costs, reductions in salaries, etc. What is interesting is based on the statements, it appears SIX is in better position financially to make it until the 2021 operating season if they stay closed all year; whereas FUN has alluded to they are taking steps to secure additional liquidity if the closures extend later into the year. Now a lot can be interpreted from that statement. It could be that SIX has more cash on hand or access to it, OR it could be FUN has their cash tied up in investments that they will look to sell off or will look to take on more debt, OR it could be SIX statement includes anticipated sell off of assets... So its close to time to buy my 11yo FUN shares just for giggles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishely Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Here is somewhat of an idea of when we can see Kings Island open/requirements for Kings Island to open. https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Ding Dong Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, PatchesC said: So its close to time to buy my 11yo FUN shares just for giggles. No such animal. They are Units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, PatchesC said: So its close to time to buy my 11yo FUN shares just for giggles. Whichever camp you are in (will they open or not this year), wait a week. SIX stock increased 20% the day after they made their announcement. Expect FUN to show similar gains tomorrow (maybe not 20% since they didn't say they have enough cash through opening 2021). But then again, after hours trading did increase the FUN value 14% since the announcement... It will take about a week for the unit price to get to today's price. Now here is where people can show with their wallet which camp they are in LOL: If you believe they will open this year, in about a week or so, go ahead and purchase as it may not be rock bottom, but will probably be close. The value will increase once an opening day is announced. If you believe they will not open this year, wait until after that announcement is official to purchase because the value will tank that day and the next. What's in your wallet..oh wait wrong company *disclaimer time - I am not your adviser and anything I mentioned is my opinion and not intended to provide tax, legal, accounting, financial, or professional advice, and readers are advised to seek out qualified professionals that provide advice on these issues for your specific circumstances. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawaiian Coasters 325 Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 I accidentally posted this in the Orion thread wasn't paying attention lol. Sorry about that. Anyways, Here's an interesting article about Kings Island and Cedar Point with the challenges the parks will likely face if they open this year. Also, Dennis Speigel is interviewed in this. https://www.cleveland.com/business/2020/04/cedar-point-other-parks-face-daunting-opening-day-challenges-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html?fbclid=IwAR21EG4mbYmv12itywZfVr2mLNGqTwHTtiu4veSg6hS5dg7RAhWGUSsl8YI 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said: I accidentally posted this in the Orion thread wasn't paying attention lol. Sorry about that. Anyways, Here's an interesting article about Kings Island and Cedar Point with the challenges the parks will likely face if they open this year. Also, Dennis Speigel is interviewed in this. https://www.cleveland.com/business/2020/04/cedar-point-other-parks-face-daunting-opening-day-challenges-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html?fbclid=IwAR21EG4mbYmv12itywZfVr2mLNGqTwHTtiu4veSg6hS5dg7RAhWGUSsl8YI While I recognize Speigel is in the industry and is a nice guy, a simple search on this forum will point out how many times he has been wrong on what ride was coming next even after looking at the blueprints....maybe he was under contract with CF to make wrong projections and speculations to the media or he really didn't know...so don't put all your eggs in the what he is saying basket... A lot of these posts were from decoding threads that have since been locked so you can't quote them, so it will require one to use the search feature... Even you HC325 called him out for saying Orion had loops lol....if I recall correctly I think he said Diamondback was going to be a giga and Banshee was going to be wing or dive coaster... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawaiian Coasters 325 Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, disco2000 said: While I recognize Speigel is in the industry and is a nice guy, a simple search on this forum will point out how many times he has been wrong on what ride was coming next even after looking at the blueprints....maybe he was under contract with CF to make wrong projections and speculations to the media or he really didn't know...so don't put all your eggs in the what he is saying basket... A lot of these posts were from decoding threads that have since been locked so you can't quote them, so it will require one to use the search feature... Even you HC325 called him out for saying Orion had loops lol....if I recall correctly I think he said Diamondback was going to be a giga and Banshee was going to be wing or dive coaster... Yeah, I know that. I never really trust him when reading blueprints because of the history with him lol. However, I think he has more of an understanding of the amusement park industry more on a business side than the engineering side. I think he said Diamondback was going to be a steel hyper, but with a couple of loops. He said Banshee was going to be a wing coaster though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 If this proves accurate we are in much better shape than we think. And it means the park opens sooner than later. Potentially. I know most people here are smarter than Stanford University, but...maybe give it some thought. https://ktla.com/news/california/stanford-antibody-study-estimates-covid-19-infected-at-least-50-times-more-people-than-testing-identified-in-santa-clara-county/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 10 hours ago, bjcolglazier said: If this proves accurate we are in much better shape than we think. And it means the park opens sooner than later. Potentially. I know most people here are smarter than Stanford University, but...maybe give it some thought. https://ktla.com/news/california/stanford-antibody-study-estimates-covid-19-infected-at-least-50-times-more-people-than-testing-identified-in-santa-clara-county/ Regarding the Stanford comment - when has college theory ever matched reality LOL Most of the experts have previously suggested and agreed that more people have been infected than what the testing to date has shown and that until this antibody test could be developed and random testing conducted, it would be a scientific speculation that was the case, so the article doesn't really bring up anything new other than they are testing the antibody test...and to keep this documentary short LOL, I will not even discuss the reported 15%+ people getting the virus twice so far...as that data point will throw another wrench into the whole works... To calculate the death rate, the COVID-19 trackers divide total deaths by the number of known cases, which shows about 6.4 percent of people infected with the virus have now died worldwide. In Italy, the death rate stands at about 13 percent, and in the United States, around 4.3 percent, according to the latest figures on known cases and deaths. These numbers cited at Covid-19 news conferences relies on a data set that includes mostly people whose symptoms were severe enough to be tested, so the percentages will likely be higher than reality. Antibody testing and random testing will certainly bring to light more data...and data is good. In all likelihood these additional tests will bring the death percentage down, but to what number? In communities that experienced this first, their numbers are starting to trend down - Wuhan's for example has dropped to 1.2%. Many experts believe this death percentage number will be 1% once random and antibody testing is available and conducted. Keep in mind, the infection fatality rate of seasonal flu strains, which kill tens of thousands of Americans each year, is about 0.1 percent. So this thing is still deadly and seems to be more contagious and to have a stronger impact on certain demographics, as you have pointed out before... Since the first reported US death on February 29th, this has already killed more Americans (37,158), than the entire 2018-2019 season of the flu last year (34,200 deaths). So if it is determined to be more contagious than the flu, that means more people become infected by this than the flu and become asymptomatic super-spreaders of the virus, coupled with what may turn out to be a 1% death rate, which would be 10 times deadly than the flu, then we still have social distancing in our future... It is the equation between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when normal happens. However, regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths do not change and that will be a driving factor going forward... Look at the backlash Dr. Oz got by assuming it would be 2%... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-oz-slammed-for-suggesting-it-may-only-cost-us-2-to-3-of-american-lives-to-reopen-schools-2020-04-16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawaiian Coasters 325 Posted April 18, 2020 Author Share Posted April 18, 2020 Latest video from Amusement Insiders: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenban Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 So I heard from a friend that Universal had started sending out surveys asking guests about how they would feel about different measures. It sounds like they want to see how comfortable guests would be with different mitigation measures. I did a quick search trying to find a copy of the survey, while I was given screenshots of some of the questions, I would prefer to see it myself. But it turns out Theme Park Insider has already written an article about the survey. So questions include Require face masks of guests/team members, temperature checks, eliminate self service food/drink, wipe down ride vehicles between rides, limit park capacity to 75/50/25%, virtual line for all rides, no indoor attractions, no shows, no parades, no nighttime shows. The one that bothers me is they asked about requiring a rapid covid test to enter the park. The issue is it would be effectively impossible to implement. The cost of performing the test is too high to be able to implement, assuming enough equipment could be purchased. Virtual lines for everything sounds great, except where are the guests going to go between rides? It works on a handful of attractions but trying to convert everything just seems unworkable. No indoor attractions, and no shows leaves me thinking there would not be much open in a Universal park. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 ^ I am surprised more parks haven't done that yet to provide another data point for them to consider as to what the guest may be willing to "give up" for the sake of opening. I think anyone saying they could walk around an amusement park all day with a face mask on hasn't worn one for any period of time. They itch, you get all moist underneath it, nose gets watery, etc. You lose 5-20% of your lung capacity due to essentially breathing most of your exhale so the oxygen level drops each breath. Not like being buried alive as the mask does have some breath-ability to it, but wear one for too long and some people will get light headed - especially outside on a summer day. Imagine how difficult it would be for a worker to work in the summer heat with all the PPE on? They will need more staff just for additional breaks. Masks would be needing to be replaced multiple times a shift due to getting soaked with sweat. Does the park actually kick people out for taking their masks off - would it be enforced more than smoking? How many more staff would be needed to enforce social distancing? If parks implement the rapid testing for everyone - where do they all go waiting for the test results and comply with social distancing? Getting through the front-gate on a busy day is jammed packed now, this would add to it 15-fold. Oh and one option is they would go back to employees refilling drink cups - there is a disaster in the making...I cannot tell you how many of those cups I see go into a bathroom in one hand, and um well, person then leaves the bathroom without washing their hands..one of the main reasons why the parks installed fill your own drink dispensers. Now we will go back to the same employee with gloves on taking someone's nasty germ infested cup to refill it, then go make your Skyline Coney basket....sounds like a yummy recipe for an upset tummy... Still lots of questions the parks need to answer before opening... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outdoor Man Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 A frustrating, yet nice, thing is that the news literally changes every day. Most times- several. I think the antibody tests are the most significant news items to come out. If the results remain consistent with what's happening in California and Chicago (ie- infection rates being 85 times what's reported)- meaning CA would have a total infection tally of 2.5M with total deaths of 1,100. Still a very contagious disease, but that calculation gives a death rate of 0.04%. I look to see what the antibody tests reveal. it's the first set of data that is useful going forward. The infection rate is going to continue going up as more and more testing come online. There was a chart put out by the CDC, dated 4/1, I think when the total deaths numbered 13,130 in the US. Total deaths of everyone in the US under the age of 34 was 129 (or less than 1% of COVID deaths). Add in age 35-44 the total was 3%. Even add in <55 group and it was still 8%. These aren't my numbers, this is the CDC. What does this mean? Everyone from Government to Businesses are still making decisions in the fog with little (but beginning to emerge) data. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 A long standing west-side tradition dating back to 1860, the Harvest Home Fair and parade in September has been cancelled for 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishely Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 A long standing west-side tradition dating back to 1860, the Harvest Home Fair and parade in September has been cancelled for 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns... That fair shouldn’t be compared to Kings Island as it has closed for reasons that Kings Island doesn’t really have to worry about. This information is taken from this article https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cincinnati.com/amp/5152484002 “Holding the fair puts our volunteers and patrons at risk, many of whom are in a high-risk group,” Pete Rebold, a chairman for the fair, said in a statement. Kings Island does not have volunteers and many of KI’s workers seem to not be high risk since most are young and the few high risk workers could be replaced with low risk workers. Rebold said there were also concerns about how enjoyable the fair will be if protective measures are still in place. “How do you drink a beer through a mask?" Rebold said. "How do you accomplish social distancing at an event where everyone is coming to spend time with their friends and family." Kings Island main focus is its attractions not food, and I’m sure the park would be enjoyable to everyone who has been cooped up in their houses for the last month. Dine in restaurants are most likely to be open before the park anyways, so you would most likely be allowed to eat/drink at the park And with social distancing, Universal and Six Flags have both looked into ways of social distancing at the park. “The board said there were other serious complications, such as securing sponsors when many businesses are closed and working with the school when they aren't in session.” Kings Island doesn’t rely on sponsors and does not work with schools. If anything, having schools closed would bring in more people to the park. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 @Fishely - where in my post did I compare a fair to Kings Island? I am very well aware of the differences between a fund-raising weekend-only fair and a for-profit publicly traded entity. I was simply adding this here as fairs have rides and a "feel" of an amusement park on a much lower scale, thus it's relevance to this thread... but since you bring food and patrons up as differences, people do have meal and drink plans at KI and their patrons are of all ages, so there are some similarities that you have pointed out! But if we want to get technical on your statements, KI does have volunteers from time to time that are not personally paid, but rather an organization fund-raising (similar to the volunteers at a fair volunteering for that organization)...they are easily identified as their name tags are stickers with their name written on them. One will usually see them at the start and end of the seasons, but may become more common if they open this summer and need workers. At the very least, KI and CP probably will not be able to use their dorms due to social distancing requirements and international workers will probably have travel restrictions preventing them from traveling, so any staff shortcoming can come from volunteers fund-raising for their respective organization. And these organizations will need the help because many of their primary fund-raising functions have or had been cancelled. Replacing older workers with younger workers is age discrimination and is protected by law. The law could change temporarily as a result of COVID, but as it stands now, KI cannot replace an older employee in favor of a younger one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishely Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 [mention=11811]Fishely[/mention] - where in my post did I compare a fair to Kings Island? I am very well aware of the differences between a fund-raising weekend-only fair and a for-profit publicly traded entity. I was simply adding this here as fairs have rides and a "feel" of an amusement park on a much lower scale, thus it's relevance to this thread... but since you bring food and patrons up as differences, people do have meal and drink plans at KI and their patrons are of all ages, so there are some similarities that you have pointed out! But if we want to get technical on your statements, KI does have volunteers from time to time that are not personally paid, but rather an organization fund-raising (similar to the volunteers at a fair volunteering for that organization)...they are easily identified as their name tags are stickers with their name written on them. One will usually see them at the start and end of the seasons, but may become more common if they open this summer and need workers. At the very least, KI and CP probably will not be able to use their dorms due to social distancing requirements and international workers will probably have travel restrictions preventing them from traveling, so any staff shortcoming can come from volunteers fund-raising for their respective organization. Replacing older workers with younger workers is age discrimination and is protected by law. The law could change temporarily as a result of COVID, but as it stands now, KI cannot replace an older employee in favor of a younger one. I know you didn’t directly say it compares to Kings Island, however, the ... at the end of your previous statement, to me, implies the idea of that since this fair closed, Kings Island could be next. So I looked up an article on the closure and found many differences between the fair and Kings Island, so for any one else like me, who thought since this fair closed Kings Island also might close wouldn’t have to worry more. As for the food and drink plans, they have been extended to next year so people wouldn’t feel the need to have to use them this year. I also didn’t mean fire people who are old, I meant if old people are afraid of getting sick, then the park could replace them. If they aren’t afraid, keep them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Fishely said: I know you didn’t directly say it compares to Kings Island, however, the ... at the end of your previous statement, to me, implies the idea of that since this fair closed, Kings Island could be next. So I looked up an article on the closure and found many differences between the fair and Kings Island, so for any one else like me, who thought since this fair closed Kings Island also might close wouldn’t have to worry more. As for the food and drink plans, they have been extended to next year so people wouldn’t feel the need to have to use them this year. I also didn’t mean fire people who are old, I meant if old people are afraid of getting sick, then the park could replace them. If they aren’t afraid, keep them. Fair enough (no pun intended LOL)...thank you for explaining how you developed your opinion and dismissing it as a gut feel opinion! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
standbyme Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 This will be the most negative thing that I have ever posted on this board...but here goes...I can't tell you how much it bothers me to see people toss around what they feel is an acceptable fatality rate. These are people's lives we are talking about. Even if the death rate is 1 in 10,000...who wants to pick either themselves or one of their family members to be that 1? Whenever I read that there is an "acceptable death rate" it reminds of wartime when the "powers that be" decide what is an acceptable number of soldiers to sacrifice to accomplish something...all the while they themselves are nice and safe. To anyone who feels that there is an acceptable death rate I say, "Here, you first". (Mods feel free to delete this if you want...it's just something that I have wanted to say for awhile and I finally reached my breaking point.) 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeastFarmer Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 This will be the most negative thing that I have ever posted on this board...but here goes...I can't tell you how much it bothers me to see people toss around what they feel is an acceptable fatality rate. These are people's lives we are talking about. Even if the death rate is 1 in 10,000...who wants to pick either themselves or one of their family members to be that 1? Whenever I read that there is an "acceptable death rate" it reminds of wartime when the "powers that be" decide what is an acceptable number of soldiers to sacrifice to accomplish something...all the while they themselves are nice and safe. To anyone who feels that there is an acceptable death rate I say, "Here, you first". (Mods feel free to delete this if you want...it's just something that I have wanted to say for awhile and I finally reached my breaking point.) Statistics and demographics don't mesh well with humanity. Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, standbyme said: This will be the most negative thing that I have ever posted on this board...but here goes...I can't tell you how much it bothers me to see people toss around what they feel is an acceptable fatality rate. These are people's lives we are talking about. Even if the death rate is 1 in 10,000...who wants to pick either themselves or one of their family members to be that 1? Whenever I read that there is an "acceptable death rate" it reminds of wartime when the "powers that be" decide what is an acceptable number of soldiers to sacrifice to accomplish something...all the while they themselves are nice and safe. To anyone who feels that there is an acceptable death rate I say, "Here, you first". (Mods feel free to delete this if you want...it's just something that I have wanted to say for awhile and I finally reached my breaking point.) I couldn't have said it better myself! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 And let’s not get caught up on a percentage either. Regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths does not change and that will be the driving factor going forward. New studies are suggesting that COVID-19 has infected 85% of the US population of 330 million and the corresponding death rate if nobody else dies would be 0.04%. That would be 132,000 deaths, which ironically is in the range of the projected death counts made back in March... Last flu season in the US resulted in 34,200 deaths from a total of 35.5 million infected. That means it infected roughly 10% of the population and the death rate was 0.1%. So from a death percentage basis, it may look like the flu is deadlier, but from a total death count, COVID-19 is deadlier...it is the relationship between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when we return to normal. In just 48 days, COVID-19 has killed more in the US than the flu did for the entire flu season last year (2018-2019)... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outdoor Man Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, standbyme said: This will be the most negative thing that I have ever posted on this board...but here goes...I can't tell you how much it bothers me to see people toss around what they feel is an acceptable fatality rate. These are people's lives we are talking about. Even if the death rate is 1 in 10,000...who wants to pick either themselves or one of their family members to be that 1? Whenever I read that there is an "acceptable death rate" it reminds of wartime when the "powers that be" decide what is an acceptable number of soldiers to sacrifice to accomplish something...all the while they themselves are nice and safe. To anyone who feels that there is an acceptable death rate I say, "Here, you first". (Mods feel free to delete this if you want...it's just something that I have wanted to say for awhile and I finally reached my breaking point.) I'll reply since I've posted death rate stats. Over the last 6 weeks many people (myself included) have stored an extra pound or two... or three on our frame that otherwise wouldn't have been there had this not come up. I am of the age and demographic that will be staring down the barrel of a spike in cardio vascular disease brought on by these policy moves. Don't get me wrong, I like to get out and live in a place where we can get out and move around... but lets be honest- the weather has been terrible. People have lost jobs and are entering despair, depression, etc... and there has already been an uptick in the suicide rate. close to 650,000 people per year in the US die of Cardio Vascular disease. One of the studies they're not publishing from the CDC is the projected 8-12% rise in cardio vascular disease over the next 18-24 months. That is an annual increase of 52,000-78,000. Again, they're just projections- but it will be substantial either way. I am in that demographic. I don't want to toss around numbers frivolously- but which is the bigger risk? The longer the shelter in place restrictions go on... the more suicide rates will go up. Just the low-end increase projections for Cardio Vascular and Suicide over one year top the current total projections for COVID. These numbers don't even touch unrelated deaths due to the temporary pause in elective surgeries that would otherwise be necessary. This is, unfortunately, the dilemma facing policy makers, and it's not one I would want to make. Not trying to throw darts at the comment- Just giving throwing another opinion into the basket. MOD's, don't delete respectful exchange of ideas. As best I see there's no "ALL CAPS" going on... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gforce1994 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Let’s face this reality: theme parks, zoos, and museums will all open up when there’s no risk for high-risk individuals to visit with COVID-19 precautions in place, or a vaccine is found or approved. If a place were to open before high-risk individuals are safe to go out, it would be an absolute disaster. Not only would it facilitate the spread of COVID-19, but high risk individuals with prepaid tix and passes would visit, and could contract condition through asymptomatic individuals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHMAN1 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Does anyone know what is going on with the growing number of cars in the KI parking lot? It started a few weeks ago with some cars in the extreme north side of the lot and it now stretches all the way down to the season pass lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 4 hours ago, standbyme said: This will be the most negative thing that I have ever posted on this board...but here goes...I can't tell you how much it bothers me to see people toss around what they feel is an acceptable fatality rate. These are people's lives we are talking about. Even if the death rate is 1 in 10,000...who wants to pick either themselves or one of their family members to be that 1? Whenever I read that there is an "acceptable death rate" it reminds of wartime when the "powers that be" decide what is an acceptable number of soldiers to sacrifice to accomplish something...all the while they themselves are nice and safe. To anyone who feels that there is an acceptable death rate I say, "Here, you first". (Mods feel free to delete this if you want...it's just something that I have wanted to say for awhile and I finally reached my breaking point.) That's good sentiment and all, but we all make decisions about acceptable death rates every day of our lives. I'm sure someone has died over the years driving to and from Kings Island. Of course, some have died in the park itself. Should we shut the park down forever? It'll probably "save lives" statistically speaking, but of course we should not nor will we shut the park down. The fatality rate is indeed "acceptable". This entire topic varies widely based purely on who you are talking to. I know younger folks who can work at home that are scared to death of things "opening up". I know many middle-age (my age) who need to work or risk losing everything. Some older folks are fine with staying home. Some are not. Some miss being close to their loved ones. They know their time is limited anyway, and this is just stealing more of their time. It just depends who you talk to. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, bjcolglazier said: The fatality rate is indeed "acceptable". As of today, there are 37, 055 Americans who would probably disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Joshua said: As of today, there are 37, 055 Americans who would probably disagree. That's roughly the number of fatalities via car crashes in the USA every year. I hope you don't dare get in a vehicle! Unacceptable. (we can do this all night) Look, Covid-19 sucks. I know we all agree on that. Let's leave it there, and move on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 37 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said: That's roughly the number of fatalities via car crashes in the USA every year. 37,055 Americans and counting in.. Just.. One.. Month.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 The thing about statistics is you can make them say whatever you want them to say and be truthful depending on your bias... One cannot simply look at one stat and make an accurate opinion and assessment, but that is what a lot of people, including some media, do to make their point. I try to look up every piece of available information before formulating an opinion. And my opinion may change as new information is found or presented. Here is something interesting to prove my point that you can make stats say whatever you want... @Outdoor Man made a reference above about how COVID-19 deaths pale in comparison to cardiovascular issues. @bjcolglazier made a reference as to the number of COVID-19 deaths are about the same as US automobile fatalities. Well it just so happens that you can take a snapshot and make an argument the other way. Here are the weekly deaths historically for the second week in April: This graphic, taken out of context, dispels all the other reasons people have suggested as well, such as increased suicides, accidents, flu, etc. Is this trend likely to continue for an entire year, probably not, but somebody somewhere will take this graphic and run with it to make their point about how bad COVID-19 is. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying COVID-19 isn't bad, nor I am defending anyone's point of view or opinion on the matter, nor is this directed at anyone, it is simply pointing something out. On the contrary, it shows the importance that we cannot approach this topic (or any controversial topic) in a myopic manner. We have to be thoughtful and educated on topics we are speaking on and be willing to sit back and truly evaluate what value we add to the conversation, if any at all. If our only value on a topic is an emotionally charged post not based on all the facts it is not doing anyone a service, and continues the cycle of bad information being passed around. I believe that some neutrality and trying to see both sides before making an informed opinion on a divisive issue is important and not doing that and being quick to judge or have an ill-informed opinion based on one data point or news article is one of the things wrong with our society today - people get emotionally charged about an issue without knowing all (or in some cases any) of the facts and are quick to pass judgment with no basis other than psychological projection based on their personal upbringing and experiences. They are easy to spot because they have no basis for their feelings other than "because" and that sounds like the old parent response when their child asks why and the parent says "because I said so". I appreciate someone actually providing reasons for their opinions rather than being so emotionally charged that they can't say much more than "because". It gives me another viewpoint and potentially another data point in considering my opinion on the subject...it may change my opinion or it may not, but at least I will understand their viewpoint... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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