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Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks


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17 minutes ago, gad198 said:

I'm not picking on this specific news story, but how many models or predictions related to this virus have in reality been anywhere in the ballpark of what they predicted?  Just some other questions rattling around in my head right now:

  • Why is that mask use in the US has increased significantly in the past few months (60%-80% current usage depending on the source) and yet the number of cases is still climbing?
  • Why is it that despite that huge increases in US cases - 3 times as many daily average cases today as compared to two months ago - that the daily average number of deaths has gone down during that time? Source
  • Why is that South Africa and most South American countries, despite having a couple month advance notice that this virus was coming, imposed mandatory masks orders around May 1 and yet their case numbers are continuing to climb? Source
  • Why is Sweden, who imposed no lockdown nor mandatory mask requirements (less than 10% mask usage there), seeing both their case and mortality numbers consistently go down? Source
  • Why do Asian countries still have major seasonal flu outbreaks despite high mask usage there during flu season? Source

This virus simply can't be controlled by man-made measures.  If it were controllable we would have been able to contain the common cold and the seasonal flu a long time ago.  The sooner we stop looking at these (often grossly incorrect) models and assumptions and start looking at the data we do have available the better off we'll be.

I think many would say the answer to many of those questions is compliance and that masks alone will not solve the problem.  Masks are on of many methods that need to be employed including hygiene (something many countries are not known for). Social Distancing, testing, robust contact tracing and isolation (not the same as a quarantine).

As to the last paragraph: New Zealand

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What most people forget is early on, it was estimated with social distancing measures that the USA would see less than 100,000 deaths.  

The most widely regarded modeling early on was the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME) model that early on estimated around 84,000 US deaths.  Then in early April, the IHME figure dropped even further, estimating 60,000 deaths by August. 

And yet here we are today at around 138,000 deaths in the US.

You are right, the models are grossly incorrect - they substantially under-estimated the number of deaths in the US...why is that?  Why are most people not concerned that more are dying than anticipated?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/explaining-coronavirus-death-toll-predictions-improving/story?id=70073130

 

PS - this also shows that there is so much information out there, some dated, some inaccurate, some still being written because nobody really has a handle on this virus, that one can find an article to support their position, whatever it is...maybe you think that smoking helps reduce covid - you can find an article on that...

You can even make up the narrative - go to Google and type in any 3 digit number and new cases and see what happens - type in 999 new cases or 123 new cases...and sometimes a 3 digit number and covid works too

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9 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

I think many would say the answer to many of those questions is compliance and that masks alone will not solve the problem.  Masks are on of many methods that need to be employed including hygiene (something many countries are not known for). Social Distancing, testing, robust contact tracing and isolation (not the same as a quarantine).

Just out of curiosity, how would you recommend we do contact tracing here in the US when there are 65,000 daily cases right now?  How would you convince people to take on that task?  Would the (likely massive) costs of so doing yield anything in the way of tangible benefit?  Would you plan on doing the same thing when the seasonal flu kicks in?

Regarding New Zealand, they still haven't opened their borders yet.  They'll have to eventually if they want to keep their economy afloat given how dependent they are on tourism.  What do you think is going to happen when they reopen their borders?

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7 minutes ago, gad198 said:

Just out of curiosity, how would you recommend we do contact tracing here in the US when there are 65,000 daily cases right now?  How would you convince people to take on that task?  Would the (likely massive) costs of so doing yield anything in the way of tangible benefit?  Would you plan on doing the same thing when the seasonal flu kicks in?

Regarding New Zealand, they still haven't opened their borders yet.  They'll have to eventually if they want to keep their economy afloat given how dependent they are on tourism.  What do you think is going to happen when they reopen their borders?

An app can do so effectively, cheaply and is already available. Convincing people would be the hard part. Could it combat other similar diseases? Yes.

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4 minutes ago, gad198 said:

Just out of curiosity, how would you recommend we do contact tracing here in the US when there are 65,000 daily cases right now? Disco has some info on that, see below.  How would you convince people to take on that task?  New leadership.  Would the (likely massive) costs of so doing yield anything in the way of tangible benefit?  I think the question is can we afford not to.  “With the virus there is no functioning economy”.  -Dude from SC. Would you plan on doing the same thing when the seasonal flu kicks in? It is not as contagious 

Regarding New Zealand, they still haven't opened their borders yet.  They'll have to eventually if they want to keep their economy afloat given how dependent they are on tourism.  What do you think is going to happen when they reopen their borders?  All the best practices listed to keep the numbers low. 

On 7/8/2020 at 10:01 PM, disco2000 said:

 

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While this forum is an escape for many, it's also a place to find different perspectives on the issues facing the park industry and beyond. COVID-19 is arguably the biggest single event to ever impact the industry.

Constructive dialog and mutual respect make KIC what it is, even in this age of polarization.

1 hour ago, gad198 said:
  • Why is Sweden, who imposed no lockdown nor mandatory mask requirements (less than 10% mask usage there), seeing both their case and mortality numbers consistently go down? Source

The Swedish model relied on herd immunity, supported by a relatively low population density and excellent access to healthcare. They got control of the virus, but at a high human cost. The cost of this strategy in the US would likely be much higher.

 

1 hour ago, gad198 said:

Why is it that despite that huge increase in US cases - 3 times as many cases today as compared to two months ago - that the daily average number of deaths has gone down during that time? Source

There are indeed some encouraging signs that COVID infections may becoming less lethal. Whether this is due to a younger demographic getting infected, partial herd immunity to the virus, better treatment protocols, or other factors is not yet known. As KDD and others have noted above, there are potential long-term health implications to consider among survivors.

Those who have recently been infected haven't progressed through the disease yet. We shouldn't wait for death numbers and ICU numbers to spike before responding to earlier indicators.

1 hour ago, gad198 said:

Regarding New Zealand, they still haven't opened their borders yet.  They'll have to eventually if they want to keep their economy afloat given how dependent they are on tourism.  What do you think is going to happen when they reopen their borders?

You raise a good point. If the virus is spreading unchecked anywhere, it's a problem everywhere.

Opening borders will require testing and contact tracing. You're right that we can't contact trace 65k people/day - that becomes more important once the virus is controlled by physical and/or immunological means.

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Death and full recovery increasingly appear to not be the only two possible outcomes. More Known Unknowns below.

https://scitechdaily.com/Delirium-brain-inflammation-nerve-damage-and-stroke-linked-to-covid-19/

Quote
Neurological complications of Covid-19 can include Delirium, brain inflammation, stroke, and nerve damage, finds a new UCL and UCLH-led study.

Published in the journal Brain, the research team identified one rare and sometimes fatal inflammatory condition, known as ADEM, which appears to be increasing in prevalence due to the pandemic.

Some patients in the study did not experience severe respiratory symptoms, and the neurological disorder was the first and main presentation of Covid-19. 

Joint senior author Dr. Michael Zandi (UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology and University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust) said: “We identified a higher than expected number of people with neurological conditions such as brain inflammation, which did not always correlate with the severity of respiratory symptoms. 

“We should be vigilant and look out for these complications in people who have had Covid-19. Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen.”

The study provides a detailed account of neurological symptoms of 43 people (aged 16-85) treated at the National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery, UCLH, who had either confirmed or suspected Covid-19.
 

(cont)


 

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13 hours ago, gad198 said:

I'm not picking on this specific news story, but how many models or predictions related to this virus have in reality been anywhere in the ballpark of what they predicted?  Just some other questions rattling around in my head right now:

  • Why is that mask use in the US has increased significantly in the past few months (60%-80% current usage depending on the source) and yet the number of cases is still climbing?
  • Why is it that despite that huge increases in US cases - 3 times as many daily average cases today as compared to two months ago - that the daily average number of deaths has gone down during that time? Source
  • Why is that South Africa and most South American countries, despite having a couple month advance notice that this virus was coming, imposed mandatory masks orders around May 1 and yet their case numbers are continuing to climb? Source
  • Why is Sweden, who imposed no lockdown nor mandatory mask requirements (less than 10% mask usage there), seeing both their case and mortality numbers consistently go down? Source
  • Why do Asian countries still have major seasonal flu outbreaks despite high mask usage there during flu season? Source

This virus simply can't be controlled by man-made measures.  If it were controllable we would have been able to contain the common cold and the seasonal flu a long time ago.  The sooner we stop looking at these (often grossly incorrect) models and assumptions and start looking at the data we do have available the better off we'll be.

The director of the CDC has said that if everyone in the U.S. wore a mask, the epidemic could be brought under control in about 4 to 6 weeks.   

---In other words R naught below 1

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^

R naught below 1 basically what I was trying to say. Even if the epidemic gets under control, masks and social distancing are likely going to be the norm until a vaccine or effective treatment are available because there have been examples from some countries that one person acting recklessly can trigger an outbreak. I’m cautiously optimistic that a vaccine or treatment will be available in the foreseeable future since there’s been some encouraging news in that area. Until then, mask up!

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29 minutes ago, CoasterFan3180 said:

^

R naught below 1 basically what I was trying to say. Even if the epidemic gets under control, masks and social distancing a likely going to be the norm until a vaccine or effective treatment are available because there have been examples from some countries that one person acting recklessly can trigger an outbreak. I’m cautiously optimistic that a vaccine or treatment will be available in the foreseeable future since there’s been some encouraging news in that area. Until then, mask up!

 I'm frankly a bit concerned about the vaccine. I fear for it. We are rushing too much to be the first country to put one out, and unfortunately, that's going to pan out to be a hurried vaccine hitting the market. I think I may sit out round 1 to see if it's even effective or safe. Once I've seen some type of evidence that it's actually working, and safe, I may be a little more on with the idea. Call it cautious optimism I suppose. 

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14 hours ago, King Ding Dong said:

Also regarding not enough activity on this site.   Unless you have the most recent post in every thread, then the way I see it you are part of the problem and really don’t have anything to complain about. :D

24B1CF41-B67E-4F27-ACE1-F82BEB9B9EB0.jpeg

Ok, I have no idea where you got not enough activity from. I don’t know if any of these posts came off as not enough activity on this website, that’s not what I meant.

What I was saying was that is website is an escape. You are supposed to have fun. If someone comes on here and sees bad news on this forum, they will just start worrying. There. The argument is over I hope.

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14 hours ago, gad198 said:

 

  • Why is that mask use in the US has increased significantly in the past few months (60%-80% current usage depending on the source) and yet the number of cases is still climbing?

That's certainly not the case in Indiana. it's actually significantly decreased in the last two months.

To answer your other question, deaths are lagging indicators, sometimes by up to a month.

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14 hours ago, disco2000 said:

What most people forget is early on, it was estimated with social distancing measures that the USA would see less than 100,000 deaths.  

The most widely regarded modeling early on was the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME) model that early on estimated around 84,000 US deaths.  Then in early April, the IHME figure dropped even further, estimating 60,000 deaths by August. 

And yet here we are today at around 138,000 deaths in the US.

You are right, the models substantially under-estimated the number of deaths in the US...why is that?

 

Because social distancing has stopped. 

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Regarding opening borders, it's funny, up here in Canada, certain provinces actually have shut their borders to other provinces, it really is a peculiar time. Where you cannot enter the province except for essential reasons, kind of like crossing the Canada-US border at this point.

I understand this would be practically impossible for many reasons between US states, as it goes against the US Constitution for starters, but also that it's incredibly impractical to do. My guess is that there's probably hundreds of roads that cross over from Ohio to Pennsylvania for instance. Between, say the provinces of Quebec and New Brunswicik, you could probably count on two hands the number of ways to cross between them by road and why you can in theory easily shut down access.

The problem is, is that from my understanding, politicians within the US, have made the issue political about wearing masks. Then there's also the attitude of rebelling against what the government says, a very paramount cornerstone to the foundation of the US but this is a case where everyone should do the right thing.

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22 minutes ago, chibul said:

That's certainly not the case in Indiana. it's actually significantly decreased in the last two months.

To answer your other question, deaths are lagging indicators, sometimes by up to a month.

bjcolglazier has been kind enough to post graphs of the daily case and mortality numbers in Indiana.  If you look at the graphs for each state (Indiana and Ohio) you'll notice that from mid-March through June 10 that both the daily case and mortality graphs were essentially identical - with a peak around May 1.  From June 10 onward the case numbers started to climb in each state, but the daily cases and daily mortality rates started to diverge and have ever since. 

If you want an even more extreme example, take a look at Georgia.  When they reopened back in late April their daily case numbers were around 800.  Their daily case numbers around July 1 were about 3,000.  Daily mortalities in late April - around 40.  Daily mortalities at present - about 15.  More cases doesn't always equal higher mortality, especially when it's primarily younger people that are getting infected.  The odds for someone age 30-39, the current median age of COVID infection, ending up in the hospital with COVID infection is 1 in 1,600 (from the CDC).  The odds of a grade schooler (less than age 18) ending up in the hospital with COVID infection is 1 in 18,000.  Increases in cases is only relevant within context.  The demographics of "who" is getting infected is what really matters.

There are some states that have seen increases in both cases and mortality - Texas, Florida, California, etc.  In the US as a whole, however, the daily number of cases has more than doubled since peaks in late April and yet the daily number of mortalities is less than half, even taking into account the hot spots.  Why isn't this being regularly mentioned?

One of the things I find really disconcerting is why we aren't talking about the other side of this - the increases in child and spousal abuse, suicides, the effects from continued unemployment, children not really having been educated for 4 months, etc. as a result of the measures being taken to combat the virus.  Reasonable minds can differ over the effectiveness of masks, and the virus will eventually fade, but some of the effects of the effects we've seen won't fade nearly as quickly.  There are people that are really hurting right now.  People are looking for something, anything, that can help them to cope.  Many are stepping out into a world where you can't see someone smiling at you, and in many cases, not even looking at you at all, because they're scared that you're a potential source of infection.  Loneliness and its associated mental and physical effects was already a major health issue (Source), which undoubtedly is being magnified by this whole situation.  The tolls that those conditions take on people are just as damaging as the virus but without the same media attention.  

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12 minutes ago, gad198 said:

 

One of the things I find really disconcerting is why we aren't talking about the other side of this - the increases in child and spousal abuse, suicides, the effects from continued unemployment, children not really having been educated for 4 months, etc. as a result of the measures being taken to combat the virus.  Reasonable minds can differ over the effectiveness of masks, and the virus will eventually fade, but some of the effects of the effects we've seen won't fade nearly as quickly.  There are people that are really hurting right now.  People are looking for something, anything, that can help them to cope.  Many are stepping out into a world where you can't see someone smiling at you, and in many cases, not even looking at you at all, because they're scared that you're a potential source of infection.  Loneliness and its associated mental and physical effects was already a major health issue (Source), which undoubtedly is being magnified by this whole situation.  The tolls that those conditions take on people are just as damaging as the virus but without the same media attention.  

My one and only post in this thread.... quoted to emphasize the importance of this aspect.  I will say that there has been more than one night where Ive sedated myself in order to make sure I saw the next morning throughout all of this.  Those who know me, know that this is not a statement Im proud to make, but in a time when every single outlet I use for mental health and escape was taken from me in a matter of 24 hours (the get togethers for dinner and drinks with special Friends, tracks I race go karts at, the drag strips, the golf courses, the entertainment centers like Tappers in Indy, and amusement parks), my depression and anxiety spiked exponentially and there were times when my only guarantee of seeing the next day was to crash hard enough to where I didnt wake up in the middle of the night.  Do I understand the steps that had to be taken, and still have to be taken, in order to have a legitimate chance at getting a handle on this?  Absolutely!!!  Does it still suck to monumental heights?  ABSOLUTELY!!!  Thankfully, I am now able to at least resume most of these activities, albeit in a vastly altered capacity, but this statement that @gad198 made is one that must not be forgotten.

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Here's the thing that some of you are missing. While it is true that the deaths from those aged under 40 are minimal, there is the simple thing that one who catches it under 40 can spread it to someone vulnerable in a higher age bracket.

Also, the virus doesn't exactly have a binary ending, you don't beat it or die, there are some who have concerning brain issues afterwards for example.

What i like to compare it to, do any of you remember the story of Marcy Borders on 9/11, the infamous photo of the lady who escaped covered with dust. She died in 2015 from stomach cancer which many believe was related to the toxic dust she inhaled that fateful day. So think of it like this, she may have survived 9/11, but ultimately she was killed by the effects of what happened on 9/11. 

It's unclear how much COVID-19 can shorten someone's lifespan.

 

Look, I was all for the mental health arguments and what not, but my mind completely changed after the huge US spike in the middle of June that has no intentions of receding.

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1 hour ago, MisterSG1 said:

Here's the thing that some of you are missing. While it is true that the deaths from those aged under 40 are minimal, there is the simple thing that one who catches it under 40 can spread it to someone vulnerable in a higher age bracket.

They are not missing it, they just don’t care or care enough to be inconvenienced in any manner.  If they get sick or a positive test result they will isolate, but they simply don’t care that they may be spreading it to others for days before they get symptoms or a positive test.  :(

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Unfortunately this really divides us into corners. Be they political or otherwise. I work at an Elementary School, which is part of a larger amazing school corporation. Many here at KI Central and elsewhere want to quote the health experts and "science". Yet when the American Association of Pediatrics and Dr. Fauci himself says schools should be open with exception for super hotspots...people don't want to hear that science. They don't want to hear that health expert advice. Turn it off! Suddenly they talk about how America is failing schools. They hear what they want to hear. I admit I do too. We all do. We're all guilty of it.

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1 hour ago, bjcolglazier said:

Unfortunately this really divides us into corners. Be they political or otherwise. I work at an Elementary School, which is part of a larger amazing school corporation. Many here at KI Central and elsewhere want to quote the health experts and "science". Yet when the American Association of Pediatrics and Dr. Fauci himself says schools should be open with exception for super hotspots...people don't want to hear that science. They don't want to hear that health expert advice. Turn it off! Suddenly they talk about how America is failing schools. They hear what they want to hear. I admit I do too. We all do. We're all guilty of it.

Well I want to go back school and I don't care about waer maks because it's not bad.  Do the rite thing and love one another because dad said we should all do that even if I get mad sometime lololol 

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15 hours ago, bjcolglazier said:

Unfortunately this really divides us into corners. Be they political or otherwise. I work at an Elementary School, which is part of a larger amazing school corporation. Many here at KI Central and elsewhere want to quote the health experts and "science". Yet when the American Association of Pediatrics and Dr. Fauci himself says schools should be open with exception for super hotspots...people don't want to hear that science. They don't want to hear that health expert advice. Turn it off! Suddenly they talk about how America is failing schools. They hear what they want to hear. I admit I do too. We all do. We're all guilty of it.

And yet we find articles indicating that the AAP says their initial statement was taken out of context and never was an endorsement of the call by President Trump for all schools to fully reopen — and the organization has now attempted to directly distance itself from the administration’s belligerent stance on reopening.  Yes they agree schools should open, but has to be done safely and with precautions in place that very few schools have the funds or staff to provide.   You can’t just double or triple the physical class room size overnight or double or triple the number of qualified teachers overnight.  It takes funding.  Funding that continually gets cut.  A month ago or so DeWine said he had to cut school funding, yet kept funding for jails intact.  How exactly do schools hire more teachers and rent out space with budget cuts?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/07/13/trump-administration-cites-american-academy-pediatrics-make-its-case-school-reopening-heres-what-aap-really-said/

And Dr. Fauci has echoed those same thoughts and he said it was important that people adhere to guidelines on social distancing and masks to keep the level of infection in communities down, because that will make it easier to get children back into schools. Otherwise, he said schools will have to deal with the infection dynamics in their communities and create modified plans with altered school days and virtual learning.

https://roanoke.com/news/local/fauci-it-is-very-important-to-get-the-children-back-to-school/article_ed79bf1e-a1d2-5d26-9661-56e431d0b39b.html

 

I already see the narrative playing out:

In March, April, May the narrative was this is an old person disease and the young don't get it.  People were saying it is like the flu and will be gone by summer.

In June and July the narrative is now more 20-39 age demographics are testing positive, and while the deaths may not be up there as the older generation, they are suffering from long term effects.  Part of why this demo is showing numbers now is because they are being tested.  In March, April, May, only the sick were getting tested.

In July the narrative is they are saying there is little evidence children spread it.  Yet, we see evidence from day cares in Texas, summer camps in Missouri, going back to school in Israel that kids are spreading it.  How many kids are getting tested?  Only if they have a hospital visit.  Who here says "hey family let's jump in the family vehicle and run down to the pop-up test site and get tested?"  I suspect none or a very few.  How many on this site have been tested? The children age group simply hasn't been tested unless they were in the hospital.

So the narrative now is let's send them all back to school.  Governor DeWine has a new color coding map and counties that are red are mandatory masks when inside buildings....yet the Governor made school children exempt from this when inside a school.  So a mask makes sense for the kiddo being dragged around Kroger for an hour every two weeks, but not when sitting in essentially a poorly ventilated confined space classroom 30+hours a week.  Makes perfect sense?

Give it a month or so to simmer and then mid-September, early October, we will start to see stories of entire school building staffs catching covid and having to shut down and spike and hotspots as families with children in the school get it.  And then the narrative will be "we didn't think kids could spread it".  

We do not have those numbers yet to know for sure if children are carriers or spreaders.  We will by October.  And people will be scratching their heads.  Except for this doctor that states “You have to understand that the virus doesn’t want to kill us. It does not want to be deadly,” Dr. Andria Rusk, an assistant professor specializing in infectious disease at Florida International University’s College of Public Health and Social Work, told McClatchy News. “It wants for the human host to survive and be asymptomatic for as long as possible because that perpetuates itself. The longer it’s able to keep us contagious, the better off the virus is.”  What better human host than children...

And people said this would be gone in the summer heat like the flu....yet it shows no signs of letting down..so what will this fall/winter be like?

 

PS - this also shows that there is so much information out there - some dated, some inaccurate, some taken out of context, some still being written because nobody really has a handle on this virus, that one can find an article to support their position, whatever it is...maybe you think that smoking helps reduce covid - you can find an article on that...

You can even create the narrative to support your position - go to Google and type in any 3 digit number and new cases and see what happens - type in 999 new cases or 123 new cases...and sometimes a 3 digit number and covid works too

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23 hours ago, ThrillKingsFitzy said:

Sometimes there isn’t anything else. Everybody is so busy on this thread that everything else is basically dead for the day.

 

9 hours ago, ThrillKingsFitzy said:

Ok, I have no idea where you got not enough activity from. I don’t know if any of these posts came off as not enough activity on this website, that’s not what I meant.

That is where I got it from, I must have misunderstood.

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2 hours ago, bjcolglazier said:

Unfortunately this really divides us into corners. Be they political or otherwise. I work at an Elementary School, which is part of a larger amazing school corporation. Many here at KI Central and elsewhere want to quote the health experts and "science". Yet when the American Association of Pediatrics and Dr. Fauci himself says schools should be open with exception for super hotspots...people don't want to hear that science. They don't want to hear that health expert advice. Turn it off! Suddenly they talk about how America is failing schools. They hear what they want to hear. I admit I do too. We all do. We're all guilty of it.

My wife works with special education students at a local elementary school. My father - 62 years old - is in the school's IT department. They want to work. I think they should be working. Kids need school, etc.

the problem is, despite what Fauci, the CDC, the AAP and every other expert says, there are ZERO mandates on a federal - or in many instances, even a state level - for reopening schools. The result is a hodge-podge mess of schools making their own policies, many of which fall woefully short of even the minimum CDC recommendations. As of now, our school system isn't even requiring masks...which is borderline negligence.

Yes, we should reopen schools...by doing every single thing possible to keep our students and staff as safe as possible. Problem is the latter part of that statement simply isn't happening.

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