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Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks

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53 minutes ago, coaster sally said:

A lot of people would rather be on unemployment.

Yes I'm sure the 3.25-million-people that filed for unemployment LAST WEEK would rather collect unemployment. C'mon...go read something.

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I think KI could see a rise in employees assuming they open in mid May-June since there is a high unemployment number. Hopefully KI doesn't have to layoff any workers. Especially since I will be working there. 

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23 minutes ago, coaster sally said:

Would a person make more in unemployment or at Kings Island?

The stimulus bill that passed the Senate early this morning includes a $600/week bonus on top of state unemployment through July 31. For those currently unemployed, this would be quite a bit more than most park jobs would pay on a weekly basis. Here's a helpful FAQ: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html

This bill isn't law yet; it still awaits approval by the House and a signature from the president.

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1 hour ago, coaster sally said:

A lot of people would rather be on unemployment.

You know unemployment doesn’t last forever right!? Not to mention most had good jobs so they’d like to have them back as a salaried pays way more than unemployment. Unemployment has limits and isn’t long term sustaining. 
 

the distancing is to slow the spread to help the healthcare keep above water not to stop it. Everyone’s going to be exposed eventually it’s just hoping to be at a reasonable rate so that those who need more care to beat it have the option available instead of everyone getting it now and not enough beds etc.  stuff will open slowly and this will keep some people home reducing crowds naturally out of fear etc. I think by mid April we’ll hopefully have enough substantial data to know what kind of summer there will be. 
 

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Not changing the topic but I'm curious how this will have an affect on Six Flags specifically. Will we see history repeat itself or are they more financially stable now than back in the 2000s?

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2 minutes ago, SonofBaconator said:

Not changing the topic but I'm curious how this will have an affect on Six Flags specifically. Will we see history repeat itself or are they more financially stable now than back in the 2000s?

This came up somewhere and the analyst said something to the effect of the the maturities on a large portion of their debt was in 2022 or later so bankruptcy was not imminent, though I think that opinon was predicated on a July opening. 

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3 minutes ago, SonofBaconator said:

Not changing the topic but I'm curious how this will have an affect on Six Flags specifically. Will we see history repeat itself or are they more financially stable now than back in the 2000s?

Amusement Insiders did a pretty good video on this topic today about Six Flags:

 

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I wouldn't put a lot of stock in amusement insiders....

On another night, I could possibly see Holiwood knights being a go since its in rural Indiana......

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5 minutes ago, coaster sally said:

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in amusement insiders....

I enjoy watching him, we always brings up interesting points

Anywho, I don't see them being to able to operate ALL those parks without taking a hit somewhere when this all settles down. They get a TON of money in sponsorships so if some sponsors decide to pull out to recuperate some of their money thats a big loss.

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20 minutes ago, SonofBaconator said:

I enjoy watching him, we always brings up interesting points

Anywho, I don't see them being to able to operate ALL those parks without taking a hit somewhere when this all settles down. They get a TON of money in sponsorships so if some sponsors decide to pull out to recuperate some of their money thats a big loss.

 Naming rights and such are usually long term contracts and involve substantial commitments from both parties, often in barter. My wife has been involved with those with SF.  The hair gel, Snickers signs and PA system ads could be in jeopardy.  Not so sure how large a percentage in revenue those are but it all adds up.

SEAS is another one I would be interested in, given how they are in the middle of transformation.

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5 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

 Not so sure how large a percentage in revenue those are but it all adds up.

Amtrak has done that to subsidize their operations. 

 

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2 hours ago, bjcolglazier said:

Yes I'm sure the 3.25-million-people that filed for unemployment LAST WEEK would rather collect unemployment. C'mon...go read something.

 

2 hours ago, coaster sally said:

Would a person make more in unemployment or at Kings Island?

 

1 hour ago, LuckyluvsKI said:

You know unemployment doesn’t last forever right!? Not to mention most had good jobs so they’d like to have them back as a salaried pays way more than unemployment. Unemployment has limits and isn’t long term sustaining. 

Well, it does lead towards the slippery slope called welfare...

There are tons of people out there making a very good living on welfare.  How many on this site make more than $29/hour?  Well if you lived in Hawaii, that would be your hourly rate equivalent on welfare.  In Pennsylvania it is almost $14/hr.  Many states pay you more per kid, so it encourages one to have more kids.  More kids = mo' money...

Once you get on that train, it is hard to find motivation to get off of it.  To a lot of people, that is more than they would make working.  What incentive is there to take a minimum wage job if you can get more on government assistance.  Plus you get drug tested for work, but you are not subject to drug testing to get government benefits (although some states are now able to get legislation passed to make that a requirement)...  For those that would break even, why work if you you can instead go to amusement parks all summer and not have to work? 

I know people on that train...and they have learned how to play the system.

Welfare is supposed to be limited to 5 years, but there are so many loopholes and exceptions that it can be a career for some people.  SNAP benefits are not time limited.  Lot's of other programs fall somewhere in between...

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Amusement insiders sometimes has decent analysis but also sometimes does not. I personally think he’s just being to harsh on Six Flags, he clearly has a bias against them. I don’t think Six Flags will go bankrupt, even if it did that’s not a major issue. They’ve managed to come out of it before.

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On 3/24/2020 at 3:56 PM, BeeastFarmer said:

That's Kaiser Permanente for ya. Although they may be technically correct, what would they do if every single nurse, tech, resident, dietician, therapist, chaplain, doctor, housekeeper, chaplain, etc all came in with a mask in protest?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Well dang...and I know nurses that worked at a hospital and chose last year to move to other elective branches of their employer and just had hours cut drastically and was told they do not have a need for them in the hospital setting and claim to be well staffed???

https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/i-team/cincinnati-doctors-emts-face-pay-cuts-in-face-of-covid-19-pandemic

 

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Well dang...and I know nurses that worked at a hospital and chose last year to move to other elective branches of their employer and just had hours cut drastically and was told they do not have a need for them in the hospital setting and claim to be well staffed???
https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/i-team/cincinnati-doctors-emts-face-pay-cuts-in-face-of-covid-19-pandemic
 
Elective surgery has been postponed, so census is down in many places. I'd be careful about cutting MD money. But cutting admin is a good thing.

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17 hours ago, disco2000 said:

 

 

Another thing to consider, and I know several people have said this as well, including myself, that many will still fear being around people even after the all-clear is given.  It will take time to return to some sort of “normalcy”.

For example purposes, if for some reason the park is able to open August 15th, by that time most of the company picnics and what not will have been cancelled and that is a significant revenue stream.

A lot of people have lost their jobs and/or will use their discretionary funds differently, so maybe the daily admission revenue disappears as they use the money on other things.

Cedar Fair announced that last year season pass holders made up around 50% of the attendance, thus company outings and daily admission make up the rest.

If they lose the company outings and daily admission portion, a significant “new” revenue stream is now gone.

They already have the pass holder money, so if they project that opening After August 15th results in the only attendance they would get for the rest of the year would be pass holders with meal and drink plans, then they lose money opening this year as they would have expenditures with no new revenue stream…

Under this scenario, if they open August 15th and announce all 2020 passes purchased will be valid in 2021, then they lose even more money by opening in August because they would have expenditures the rest of 2020 and then all of 2021.

If the projections are that only 10 percent (or whatever percent they decide) would be daily admissions or company outings if they open after August 15th (or whatever date they use to make the decision), financially at some point it makes sense to not open and to have your 2020 season pass only valid for calendar year 2021 and not 5 months of 2020 and all of 2021…

Will they have people take to Facebook and complain KI is never getting any of their money ever again in this situation - yes - but no matter what they do, people are going to say that - people are already saying that now.  They will use all their information and take into account the number of people that would "never visit again" and if that is offset by new people that would be enticed by whatever pass offerings they offer for 2021, then that is what they will do.
 

If that's any sort of reference to what I've been saying, allow me to clarify.

Not opening this year would be putting people before profit...this is good.

Not suspending payment plans is putting profit before people...this is bad

No company that shows itself to put profit before people during this crisis will ever again see one cent of my money. Gamestop and Lowe's have made this list.

I will continue to make a little bit of noise here in the short term in hope that someone "above" sees and does the right thing. Once I'm convinced that isn't happening I'll move on to the platforms where there will be a more massive mainstream reach.

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13 hours ago, malem said:

The stimulus bill that passed the Senate early this morning includes a $600/week bonus on top of state unemployment through July 31. For those currently unemployed, this would be quite a bit more than most park jobs would pay on a weekly basis. Here's a helpful FAQ: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html

This bill isn't law yet; it still awaits approval by the House and a signature from the president.

It isn't just about if they could make more money on unemployement or not, but if the park didn't open up until August, you're looking at 2-3 weeks of full time employment, then just weekends for a month or two.  The HS/College kids that make up a large % of their work force would be back in school or heading back soon, think they are going to start a job knowing that they have to move on in a week or two, would the cost of training even be worth it to KI?  The longer they hold off opening, the harder its going to be for them to open up in full capacity.

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15 minutes ago, raggedman07 said:

If that's any sort of reference to what I've been saying, allow me to clarify.

Not opening this year would be putting people before profit...this is good.

Not suspending payment plans is putting profit before people...this is bad

No company that shows itself to put profit before people during this crisis will ever again see one cent of my money. Gamestop and Lowe's have made this list.

I will continue to make a little bit of noise here in the short term in hope that someone "above" sees and does the right thing. Once I'm convinced that isn't happening I'll move on to the platforms where there will be a more massive mainstream reach.

Quite the opposite and this was inline with your thinking but from a different approach or angle....I was making the argument that the longer this goes on the more money they will lose by opening this year as they already have pass holders money...and people should prepare for the reality they may not open and passes for 2020 will be good for 2021...

Let me try another way - if the park remains closed all year is of an abundance of safety and precaution with this still unknown virus and it happens to save them money too, well that is a byproduct of their decision.

A lot of people think the park will open as soon as possible and I am suggesting that there is a date in which it doesn't make sense to open this year... people may think not opening means they lose money and that may not be the case this year...

 

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12 minutes ago, disco2000 said:

Quite the opposite and this was inline with your thinking but from a different approach or angle....I was making the argument that the longer this goes on the more money they will lose by opening this year as they already have pass holders money...and people should prepare for the reality they may not open and passes for 2020 will be good for 2021...

Let me try another way - if the park remains closed all year is of an abundance of safety and precaution with this still unknown virus and it happens to save them money too, well that is a byproduct of their decision.

A lot of people think the park will open as soon as possible and I am suggesting that there is a date in which it doesn't make sense to open this year... people may think not opening means they lose money and that may not be the case this year...

 

Are you saying that it's about an 80% chance they won't open this year?

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Are you saying that it's about an 80% chance they won't open this year?
What he is saying is his opinion. Even the people "in the know" (park and corporate leaders) don't know right now. It's a moment by moment process. None of us know.
It's concerning to me that a mainstream media outlet would print that as a FACT (with a very small disclaimer) that Knott's is loosing 500k per day in profit each day they are closed. Their source? YouTubers! The YouTubers source? TEAS. Those numbers are guestimates at best. But they present it as fact. And they fail to notice that even if correct, that is not profit. If average spending per visit is xx.xx$, that does not equal profit. There are costs involved is that xx.xx$.

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If parks do open people will be spaced out on trains with an empty row between each other, horrible staffing, etc.  It will be a mess.  I rather just get credit for my platinum/meal/fun pix for the following season.

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I hope that if the parks don't open this year maybe they would be able to open slightly earlier next year.  Maybe for Kings Island open mid March or Carowinds could open end of February. 

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1 hour ago, BeeastFarmer said:


It's concerning to me that a mainstream media outlet would print that as a FACT (with a very small disclaimer) that Knott's is loosing 500k per day in profit each day they are closed. Their source? YouTubers! The YouTubers source? TEAS. Those numbers are guestimates at best. But they present it as fact.

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Is this your first encounter with the mainstream media?

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As it relates to Knott's loosing 500k per day, yes. Everything else, I take with a grain of salt. It's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff.

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Knotts losing on average 500k a day doesn’t seem that unrealistic. Especially considering the Boysenberry festival was supposed to be going on.

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1 hour ago, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

Are you saying that it's about an 80% chance they won't open this year?

 

1 hour ago, BeeastFarmer said:

What he is saying is his opinion. Even the people "in the know" (park and corporate leaders) don't know right now. It's a moment by moment process. None of us know.
It's concerning to me that a mainstream media outlet would print that as a FACT (with a very small disclaimer) that Knott's is loosing 500k per day in profit each day they are closed. Their source? YouTubers! The YouTubers source? TEAS. Those numbers are guestimates at best. But they present it as fact. And they fail to notice that even if correct, that is not profit. If average spending per visit is xx.xx$, that does not equal profit. There are costs involved is that xx.xx$.
 

 

It is my opinion and a business perspective on how a company may go about this and their thought process.  I am sure CF brass have at least discussed a date in which it doesn't make sense to open.  You have to look at that aspect of the forecasting and weigh it against all other conflicting constraints like someone saying "they will never get my money again" and make a determination on the best course of action.

I am trying to counter the too simplistic of an approach to say "it doesn't make any economic sense to not open the parks" that many people are using as their argument why they will re-open this year.

We have no idea what "bailouts" are going to come from the federal government as they all haven't been developed yet.  We have no idea if CF has some "catastrophic insurance policy" to cover the event of an entire season not opening because of some world crisis (and if they have such a policy it would only be applicable if they do not open).  Plus there are tons of accounting and tax regulations and other situations that we are not privy to that a company will look to use to the best of their advantage.  There is a reason so many corporations do not pay taxes...

If one of the bailouts for example is that seasonal attractions that do not open in 2020 will have debt interest forgiven or delayed or a bailout to "make them whole", but if they re-open in 2020 then the payments begin and/or bailouts are significantly reduced, it might make economic sense for a park not to open this season...You don't think that will happen - well college students don't pay on government student loans and interest doesn't start until they leave college...I know it isn't quite the same, but we have no idea what bailouts are going to happen in these unprecedented times.

Cedar Fair and other companies will be crunching the numbers as it stands right now and as new information becomes available.  I am sure they have developed a date that says if the parks don't open by (insert date here), then financially the start up costs to get going will not exceed anticipated revenue.  They may even have clauses in debt service payment related to making payments after every X number of days in operation so that could drive a decision...  

At a certain point it will simply be easier to remain closed and simply have season passes for 2020 valid in 2021.  Any opening this year will inevitably create so many scenarios and requests for full refunds or pro-rated or whatever for those that already bought passes.  Sometimes a simple sit it out and reboot next year makes the most sense...

Orders and declarations passed because of this virus could allow the government to take over hotels and other areas for triage or other staging grounds to deal with the sick once hospitals are beyond capacity because people are defying orders to maintain separation...an amusement park parking lot would make an ideal location for one of these temporary centers...kinda hard to open a park when the parking lot is not available...Just yesterday during the Ohio Governor press conference they mentioned Ohio could see 8,000 new cases a day at its peak...

Now golf courses in some states are being forced to close - those are way more spread out and less people than an amusement park.  

In these unprecedented times, things may not make sense based on looking at it from a simplistic, single sided approach, but when given all the information, companies will chart the best course they feel makes sense given all the variables and other items at their disposal, many of which we will never be privy to...

Assume the park will not open, and then when it does, you can be pleasantly surprised and elated and happy and excited.  There are more important issues right now than opening amusement parks...

 

 

1 hour ago, coaster sally said:

If parks do open people will be spaced out on trains with an empty row between each other, horrible staffing, etc.  It will be a mess.  I rather just get credit for my platinum/meal/fun pix for the following season.

 

38 minutes ago, flightoffear1996 said:

I hope that if the parks don't open this year maybe they would be able to open slightly earlier next year.  Maybe for Kings Island open mid March or Carowinds could open end of February. 

 

I too am to the point I have no desire to go to crowded area this year, so I am totally fine with 2020 passes being valid in 2021...  Adding more days to next year sounds like a great idea!

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Knotts losing on average 500k a day doesn’t seem that unrealistic. Especially considering the Boysenberry festival was supposed to be going on.
But they specifically said profit. And they sourced YouTube. Real deep reporting

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