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Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks

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27 minutes ago, disco2000 said:

and O-H-I-O Jesus...

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Nothing beats stick figure Jesus  

if he can be rebuilt so can a delayed ki season right lol

867E281C-A866-478F-AC28-9BB1993C9B04.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, LuckyluvsKI said:

Nothing beats stick figure Jesus  

if he can be rebuilt so can a delayed ki season right lol

867E281C-A866-478F-AC28-9BB1993C9B04.jpeg

LOL. Rebuilt with a new one. Because apparently the message 'sent from above' wasn't clear enough the first time. Haha!

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On 4/5/2020 at 6:56 PM, King Ding Dong said:

Link please.  I want to be the next overnight trillionaire.  I know some hospitals in NYC and here in Cbus that will pay top dollar.   Don’t post it. PM me, I will give you a cut.  :lol:

On that note. I sure hope we can continue making payments on the payment plan if we choose.  When I renewed the Canadian currency conversion rate was 1.3 now it is at 1.42

 

On 4/5/2020 at 8:09 PM, KIguy2004 said:

Can I get the link too? PM

PMs sent.

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5 hours ago, King Ding Dong said:

How does a ride-op on any coaster check restraints/staple without getting up close?  Is PPE the answer?  July and August hustling outside with all that on?  Not to many are going to put up with that.  I gave up wearing an N95 mask mowing my lawn after 3 times and just paid a neighbor kid to do it. 

And this alone could be one of the reasons why an amusement park may be one of the last business sectors to re-open. 

Let's face it, depending on the ride, a ride op will come into close proximity to thousands of people a day.  Certainly more people than most first-responders or hospital employees or most industries for that matter...  

And depending on the ride, the ride-ops get up close and personal simply based on where the restraint is they need to check.  Totally inappropriate and should not be done under any circumstance, but to make the point, on most rides like Drop Tower, and then Beast and Racer having to bend down to check the restraint, you are close enough to kiss their cheek when they check your restraint.  That would probably result in a call to security and removal from the park and I am not suggesting that in any form or fashion, but that is how close they get in some instances..  Vortex not so much...um wait never mind that ride is gone...I guess we still have The Bat...

What about rides like Steel Vengeance and Twisted Timbers where the employee puts down your lap bar.  Or having to check the height of a kid.  What about shoulder-to-shoulder filling of the Eiffel Tower elevator...maybe they re-open the steps and allow one at a time (and yes I do know that is impossible with all the wiring and lack of safety for a guest):P

Keeping the employees safe will be paramount and will be a huge factor in when the parks can open. 

At the proximity they are to guests, paper masks won’t protect them so they will need N95, plus eye protection, plus gloves.  And how often will they need to replace/exchange these?  In the heat those masks won't last an hour before they become sweat wet and unusable.  Dispatch times will come to a crawl.  Without herd immunity or a vaccine, they will catch it from asymptomatic carriers or become asymptomatic carries and spread it, there is just no way around it. 

And this would all be a new unanticipated expense...how many remember the gas price increases many years ago and many companies, like trash hauling, added a fuel surcharge temporarily into their pricing.  Would the typical guest be willing to pay a $10 surcharge each visit to compensate for these added measures...

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There are two parks in South Korea which are still operating and have actually not closed at all due to this outbreak.  Here is the guidelines from Everland in South Korea.

eng_covid_200330.jpg

Would the average guest be willing to follow these guidelines?  Temperature check to enter the park, no parades, no shows, no indoor rides, I believe no water park either.

If the park does open this year, its not going to be normal operation.

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21 minutes ago, Kenban said:

There are two parks in South Korea which are still operating and have actually not closed at all due to this outbreak.  Here is the guidelines from Everland in South Korea.

eng_covid_200330.jpg

Would the average guest be willing to follow these guidelines?  Temperature check to enter the park, no parades, no shows, no indoor rides, I believe no water park either.

If the park does open this year, its not going to be normal operation.

South Korea also had a different response and approach to the virus than the US did...and even with all their measures that some experts say other countries should have modeled after, even they are now seeing a second spike

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6 hours ago, Kenban said:

There are two parks in South Korea which are still operating and have actually not closed at all due to this outbreak.  Here is the guidelines from Everland in South Korea.

eng_covid_200330.jpg

Would the average guest be willing to follow these guidelines?  Temperature check to enter the park, no parades, no shows, no indoor rides, I believe no water park either.

If the park does open this year, its not going to be normal operation.

I, for one, can deal with this. I'm sure (I hope :unsure:) the thermometers used are sanitized with each use, though. Other than that, I will be happy riding The Bat, Orion, Adventure Express, The Beast and everything else that manages to open. Though it would put a damper on the new Area 72 if FOF didn't open with the park... Also, would Festhaus be open... many questions here...

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1 hour ago, MDMC01 said:

I, for one, can deal with this. I'm sure (I hope :unsure:) the thermometers used are sanitized with each use, though. Other than that, I will be happy riding The Bat, Orion, Adventure Express, The Beast and everything else that manages to open. Though it would put a damper on the new Area 72 if FOF didn't open with the park... Also, would Festhaus be open... many questions here...

I would think they would use the laser thermometers. 

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13 hours ago, King Ding Dong said:

@KIfan73 is that the venue referred to by the “Outdoor Drama ->” sign on 23?  Everytime I pass that sign on the way to camp I always chuckle “No thanks, I have enough Indoor Drama at my house”.  

Yes, that's it!

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18 minutes ago, flightoffear1996 said:

I would think they would use the laser thermometers. 

This could be a Boo Blasters re theme.  

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16 hours ago, KIfan73 said:

Here is an article about our local (and outstanding) outdoor theater's production of "Tecumseh" and its decision to unbelievably cancel the 2020 season.  It's been in continuous operation for about as long as KI.  The cascading difficulties of attempting to hit a moving target would seem to, unfortunately, just begin the scratch the surface of the difficulties of attempting to open Kings Island at a possible later date (I, like you, am still hoping for the best, though):

https://www.chillicothegazette.com/story/news/2020/04/06/tecumseh-canceled-impact-chillicothe-tourism-coronavirus/2954822001/

 

I have stated several times that CF has to have a date in mind that if they do not open by a certain date, that from a financial standpoint it will not make sense to open this year because at that point the costs associated with opening (start up costs, training, payroll, operating costs, etc.) would be less than the revenue generated...CF is a for-profit publicly traded company and quarterly earnings is a big part of the equation...to open up simply for the sake of opening up and losing money in the process would be disaster for their stock...the risk is too great...

This quote from the article by the production company's CEO basically applies to just about any seasonal operation business, whether it be open air theater or amusement parks:  "The financial reality of an operation like Tecumseh is that to lose 18-35 show nights is a financial disaster, one which the company might have never recovered."  Any savvy business owner would look at the financials and determine if it makes sense to open or not...

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How would they handle lines and train capacity while trying to enforce the 6ft rule?

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52 minutes ago, disco2000 said:

 

I have stated several times that CF has to have a date in mind that if they do not open by a certain date, that from a financial standpoint it will not make sense to open this year because at that point the costs associated with opening (start up costs, training, payroll, operating costs, etc.) would be less than the revenue generated...CF is a for-profit publicly traded company and quarterly earnings is a big part of the equation...to open up simply for the sake of opening up and losing money in the process would be disaster for their stock...the risk is too great...

This quote from the article by the production company's CEO basically applies to just about any seasonal operation business, whether it be open air theater or amusement parks:  "The financial reality of an operation like Tecumseh is that to lose 18-35 show nights is a financial disaster, one which the company might have never recovered."  Any savvy business owner would look at the financials and determine if it makes sense to open or not...

The difference is that Kings Island has a lot more days to make revenue than just the summer months.  Keep in mind that October and Haunt is a big season for amusement parks.  Not to mention Winterfest has become a huge success.  Kings Island has a lot more days to gain income.  Granted, we do not know what the path of this virus will take.  I think that the date they have in mind will be well into the summer before they through in the towel.  Keep in mind that most of their parks had already been preparing for the season, so some of them would not require much work to get opened, no matter for how many days.  Yes, there is a point where it would not make sense to spend the money if they have no guarantee to make that money back.  

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Does anyone see a scenario that KI can operate safely at normal attendance levels?   
 

Does anyone see a scenario that KI can operate profitably at a 50% reduction in attendance?  (Say no daily tickets sales except for bring-a-friend)

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On 4/7/2020 at 11:19 AM, CoastersRZ said:

The difference is that Kings Island has a lot more days to make revenue than just the summer months.  Keep in mind that October and Haunt is a big season for amusement parks.  Not to mention Winterfest has become a huge success.  Kings Island has a lot more days to gain income.  Granted, we do not know what the path of this virus will take.  I think that the date they have in mind will be well into the summer before they through in the towel.  Keep in mind that most of their parks had already been preparing for the season, so some of them would not require much work to get opened, no matter for how many days.  Yes, there is a point where it would not make sense to spend the money if they have no guarantee to make that money back.  

Oh I get that, and I refer you to my somewhat detailed analysis on revenue and impact by quarter for Cedar Fair back on page 43 substantiating my viewpoint.  I am being optimistic and have said I think that date is August 15th, but realistically I think if they cannot open up by July 4th weekend they call it... 

Q4 is where Haunt and Winterfest fall.  Q4 is 13% of their total revenue.  Once you subtract out pre-sale passes, it wouldn't surprise me if Haunt and Winterfest is less than 10% of their yearly revenue...

Under current restrictions, many of which would still be in effect for Haunt and Winterfest, they will not be able to give us the experience we expect - Is it Haunt with no rides but haunts or no haunts but rides?  Is Winterfest just lights and no shows?  What about having to limit attendance during those times...would only attendance be pass holders because daily admission tickets will sell horribly given so many people that have lost their job...how to keep staff safe...how long after the all-clear before people will feel comfortable going out in crowds....these are all questions and decisions Cedar Fair needs to make before re-opening...

Here is a summary of my page 43 documentary LOL:

Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company.  They live and die by quarterly statements. 

  • First quarter for 2020 (Q1) will be slightly down from normal (maybe $10-$15M) as the closure of Knott’s and postponing of Carowinds and Kings Dominion opening were towards the end of the quarter.  Historically Q1 is 6% of their revenue.  Nothing they can do about that now...
  • Q2 is when they start to ramp up because parks are starting to open.  Q2 typically makes up 30% of their revenue. A portion of that is now gone by suspending monthly payment plans.  And the stay at home orders could result in none of the parks opening during Q2
  • Q3 is where they make their money – typically 51% of their revenue comes from this quarter.  All parks are open daily during all or most of this quarter.  Company outings and daily admissions make up over 50% of their attendance and most of that will be during this quarter.  A lot of these outings and daily admissions probably will not happen this year as companies cancel their event and a lot of daily admission folks dealing with losing their jobs.  That is a big loss of revenue. Pre-sales of passes for the following season occur during this quarter and it is strategic why it happens when it does  - to help boost earnings if weather impacted attendance.  The announcement by Knott's extending platinum through 2021 SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes
  • Q4 they start to drop off again.  Q4 is typically 13% of their revenue.  This is the quarter where most of Haunt and all of Winterfest falls.  They also continue to pre-sell passes for the following year.  They make great stocking stuffers.
  • I believe the statement issued by Knott's is a strong indicator and read between the lines statement that CF seriously doubts they will re-open this year.  To give away all of 2021 before nine of their parks were even scheduled to open should be an indicator or red flag as to their thinking...

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1 minute ago, King Ding Dong said:

There goes Singapore.  Essentially in lockdown now.  Doesn’t mention Universal specifically but no gatherings.
 

Not a good sign...they had some of the most restrictive measures to begin with such as strict quarantine and enforcing it, face mask requirements for everyone, temperature taking to go anywhere, and big brother tracking your every move to trace the virus...

image.png

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1 hour ago, King Ding Dong said:

Does anyone see a scenario that KI can operate safely at normal attendance levels?   
 

Does anyone see a scenario that KI can operate profitably at a 50% reduction in attendance?  (Say no daily tickets sales except for bring-a-friend)

Only if we would soon find out that way, way more people have already caught the virus and don't even know it. Asymptomatic. From everything I'm reading now the consensus is that asymptomatic folks almost certainly have to be the ones spreading the virus. Which makes thermometer checkpoints at a place like KI pretty pointless. If this were to be the case, it could dramatically lower the fatality %. In Indiana just 1.6% of confirmed cases are under the age of 20. So what on earth does that mean? 1) They can't get it? 2) They just aren't getting it? OR...3) they've got it alright, they just aren't "sick". Right now we just don't know, but option 3 sure would help explain it's rapid spread across the globe. And it could mean herd immunity arrives sooner rather than later. 

I'm sure I don't know, but we need to get a lot of testing out there so we can find out!

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Universal Singapore already closed a few days ago.

Also at least two of the parks in Japan which only reopened less than 3 weeks ago are closed again, both Fuji-Q and Nagashima Spa Land are closed with no indication of when they will reopen.

Do not put much faith in the park staying open, even if it does open this year.  Everything is in flux, and likely to change quickly.

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3 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said:

I'm sure I don't know, but we need to get a lot of testing out there so we can find out!

Under what scenario and time frame are we going to get a lot of testing done?  Who is going is going do it and pay for it?  From what I have read the Federal policy is it is not their job. 

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2 minutes ago, King Ding Dong said:

Under what scenario and time frame are we going to get a lot of testing done?  Who is going is going do it and pay for it?  From what I have read the Federal policy is it is not their job. 

I think the details are lacking at this time. However, those in the medical community would get priority on antibody testing. Followed by first-responders. That alone could provide valuable data. And I presume it would be a collective effort of Federal, State and local agencies making it happen. I'm certain it will all roll out slower than we would like...because last month would have been a nice time to start.

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18 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said:

I think the details are lacking at this time. However, those in the medical community would get priority on antibody testing. Followed by first-responders. That alone could provide valuable data. And I presume it would be a collective effort of Federal, State and local agencies making it happen. I'm certain it will all roll out slower than we would like...because last month would have been a nice time to start.

Actually the thought process is do national random testing.  Ohio wants to start random testing, but lack of test kits is one of the hurdles.  

They will use statistical models to determine the reach of the virus, similar to scientific polls we commonly see that say something like with a margin of +/- 4%.

And one would be surprised how small the sample pool needs to be for a statistical model to start providing meaningful information....is it perfect...NO...we cannot test everyone, but at least from a statistical analysis standpoint, it can give us a much better idea how much of the population has it than now, which is a WAG...

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You have to remember parks like Knott's are open all year. I believe Santa Cruz is as well, but I'm not sure. If they were to open in Mid May, they would be losing a lot more days than KI would because they are open all year. 

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One thing about the Santa Cruz boardwalk I could never quite stomach, all the darn vampires! 

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5 hours ago, disco2000 said:

Actually the thought process is do national random testing.  Ohio wants to start random testing, but lack of test kits is one of the hurdles.  

They will use statistical models to determine the reach of the virus, similar to scientific polls we commonly see that say something like with a margin of +/- 4%.

Something kind-of along the lines of what we were discussing earlier today...  https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/07/eli-lilly-co-testing-asymptomatic-coronavirus-infections/2965166001/

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