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Number of cases in Cincinnati region is growing at an exponential rate. It currently stands at 2678 cases.
The higher the population, the higher the number if cases. The denser the population, the higher the rate of transmission. Finally, with more and more testing being done, more and more positive results are going to present. This is not #teotwawki.

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4 minutes ago, BeeastFarmer said:

The higher the population, the higher the number if cases. The denser the population, the higher the rate of transmission. Finally, with more and more testing being done, more and more positive results are going to present. This is not #teotwawki.

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Then in that case, the functions for the LA and NYC case plots should be the same except for the constant of the function. 
 

The data is showing a totally different picture.


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Climate accounts for what you're seeing. Cold climate in April vs warm climate.

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Here's an article discussing warm weather's impact on COVID-19.

https://news.yahoo.com/latest-research-says-summers-impact-200500617.html

Quote

In their report, the researchers concluded that “while influenza virus has been shown to be affected by weather, it is unknown if COVID-19 is similarly affected.”

While it is still not ultimately clear what effect temperature and humidity have on the coronavirus itself, nor on its transmission, researchers at MIT were able to find some promising results:

  • the virus has a less effective airborne nature at higher absolute humidity levels
  • heat plays a role in breaking down the lipid layer of the virus - essentially its outer protective coating
  • lower number of cases in tropical countries might be due to warm-humid conditions

In their research, scientists took into account population density, government regulations, and testing abilities.

They concluded, “under any circumstances, we believe that large gatherings (both indoor and outdoor) should be avoided across the world.”

According to the CDC, the death toll in the US is 64,283 and over a million confirmed cases. 

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1 hour ago, gforce1994 said:

Number of cases in Cincinnati region is growing at an exponential rate. It currently stands at 2678 cases.

There was very limited testing available in Cincinnati a month ago. I got lucky to have a personal connection to help get my test done and still had to drive to Columbus as there was nothing in Cinci. Most likely a product of increased testing.

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16 minutes ago, bengalsguy23 said:

There was very limited testing available in Cincinnati a month ago. I got lucky to have a personal connection to help get my test done and still had to drive to Columbus as there was nothing in Cinci. Most likely a product of increased testing.

This.  The numbers to watch are the percentage of positive cases of all tested, along with hospital/ventilator capacity.  Those are the numbers that are important at this stage in the game.

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2 hours ago, gforce1994 said:

Then in that case, the functions for the LA and NYC case plots should be the same except for the constant of the function. 
 

The data is showing a totally different picture.

I've noticed this virus is impacting compact big cities really hard. It's hard to ignore. Besides climate, NYC and LA are completely different as far as how they live. LA is a sprawling city/area stretched out over miles and miles and miles. NYC is compact, with people living on top of each other by the thousands. See also Chicago and Detroit where people live on top of each other where the virus has hit really hard, versus places like St. Louis, or Dallas, or...Cincinnati.

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The numbers are nowhere close to accurate. There's probably lots more undocumented cases. People who weren't able to get tested and those who just waited it out and got better on their own. I was reading on one page where someone got an antibody test to confirm if they had it and they did, back in NOVEMBER. So this virus has been here alot longer than we thought. It didn't just appear here at the end of February and beginning of March when we started testing. The scene in NYC (and everywhere else) would've been alot better if we were able to test sooner. It was very late when we started shutting everything down and testing. Earlier shutdowns and testing would've been far more effective.

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And not only do people in NYC live on top of each other, they are more reliant on public transportation and ride in crowded subways. Here, we all mostly drive our own vehicles.

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1 minute ago, Thabto said:

And not only do people in NYC live on top of each other, they are more reliant on public transportation and ride in crowded subways. Here, we all mostly drive our own vehicles.

Really great point here.

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The chart below shows the "normal" flu season in the US for the 2019-2020 season.  Does the shape of the curve look familiar?  It should, because it's nearly identical to the general shape of the US coronavirus curve as it stands right now.  There have been a number of epidemiologists that have been predicting that this would be the case since the outbreak started.  The chart starts at the end of September and runs through today.  Notice the steady buildup of cases early, exponential increases leading to a peak, and then a really quick drop off:

INFLUENZA Virus Isolated

The point is that the coronavirus is following nearly the exact same pattern.  About the only thing we haven't seen is the back side of the curve, the quick drop off.  The virus has spread to nearly every country in the world despite measures to try and contain it.  There are some things humans just don't have control over.

My main concern in all of this is how the media has portrayed this situation.  The overwhelming majority of news stories have been geared to do one thing and one thing only - to keep our eyes plastered on their programs via internet and TV.  And it's working.  Media viewership and ratings are way up right now (source: Variety).  Stories about COVID patients recovering, beaches reopening and updates on states that have eased restrictions have been shoved aside in favor of stories that will keep people viewing, which generally speaking means you'll get items with a negative flavor.  Things returning to normal is really the last thing the media wants.

Those people who are living "normal" lives right now aren't being reckless - they've evaluated the information available and decided to take a calculated risk.  If you're under age 60 and are not in a high-risk health category, then every study we've seen has indicated that group's risk associated with the virus is low.  The vast majority of people who do contract the virus are asymptomatic.  The most conservative estimates indicate that no fewer than 5 times as many people in the population have had or do have the virus than the actual numbers bear out right now.  Some studies have that number at 20 or even 50 times higher.  The overwhelming majority of people who contract the virus and do show symptoms have mild cases and recover.  Mortality rates are much lower than originally projected.  Health care systems didn't crash.  Many people right now are fearful because they've been told that they need to be afraid.  Some people have evaluated the available information and decided there's very little to justify that fear.

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10 minutes ago, gad198 said:

The point is that the coronavirus is following nearly the exact same pattern.  About the only thing we haven't seen is the back side of the curve, the quick drop off.  The virus has spread to nearly every country in the world despite measures to try and contain it.  There are some things humans just don't have control over.

There's a legitimate problem with how the Covid-19 death count is being taken as well. There are all sorts of problems honestly. So many problems that it is really hard to determine media coverage from fact. It's 2020, you'd think we'd be way over that, but no. Everyone can find a headline to support their viewpoint. We've learned a lot March 1 to May 1. I anticipate we will also learn a lot from May 1 to July 1. 

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49 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said:

I've noticed this virus is impacting compact big cities really hard. It's hard to ignore. Besides climate, NYC and LA are completely different as far as how they live. LA is a sprawling city/area stretched out over miles and miles and miles. NYC is compact, with people living on top of each other by the thousands. See also Chicago and Detroit where people live on top of each other where the virus has hit really hard, versus places like St. Louis, or Dallas, or...Cincinnati.

It could also be the larger cities got the resources to test earlier than other areas and rolled out testing to asymptotic people sooner. Our county only has around 50k, still requires hospital admission to test due to availability. 163 confirmed cases, 1 death out of 654 tests performed.

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20 minutes ago, gad198 said:

The chart below shows the "normal" flu season in the US for the 2019-2020 season.  Does the shape of the curve look familiar?  It should, because it's nearly identical to the general shape of the US coronavirus curve as it stands right now.  There have been a number of epidemiologists that have been predicting that this would be the case since the outbreak started.  The chart starts at the end of September and runs through today.  Notice the steady buildup of cases early, exponential increases leading to a peak, and then a really quick drop off:

INFLUENZA Virus Isolated

The point is that the coronavirus is following nearly the exact same pattern.  About the only thing we haven't seen is the back side of the curve, the quick drop off.  The virus has spread to nearly every country in the world despite measures to try and contain it.  There are some things humans just don't have control over.

My main concern in all of this is how the media has portrayed this situation.  The overwhelming majority of news stories have been geared to do one thing and one thing only - to keep our eyes plastered on their programs via internet and TV.  And it's working.  Media viewership and ratings are way up right now (source: Variety).  Stories about COVID patients recovering, beaches reopening and updates on states that have eased restrictions have been shoved aside in favor of stories that will keep people viewing, which generally speaking means you'll get items with a negative flavor.  Things returning to normal is really the last thing the media wants.

Those people who are living "normal" lives right now aren't being reckless - they've evaluated the information available and decided to take a calculated risk.  If you're under age 60 and are not in a high-risk health category, then every study we've seen has indicated that group's risk associated with the virus is low.  The vast majority of people who do contract the virus are asymptomatic.  The most conservative estimates indicate that no fewer than 5 times as many people in the population have had or do have the virus than the actual numbers bear out right now.  Some studies have that number at 20 or even 50 times higher.  The overwhelming majority of people who contract the virus and do show symptoms have mild cases and recover.  Mortality rates are much lower than originally projected.  Health care systems didn't crash.  Many people right now are fearful because they've been told that they need to be afraid.  Some people have evaluated the available information and decided there's very little to justify that fear.

I wish I could like this more than once. You nailed it.

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3 minutes ago, PatchesC said:

It could also be the larger cities got the resources to test earlier than other areas and rolled out testing to asymptotic people sooner. Our county only has around 50k, still requires hospital admission to test due to availability. 163 confirmed cases, 1 death out of 654 tests performed.

I think this was a thing, I'm not sure how it is now where you live today. My brother-in-law got tested this week, tested negative. He really wasn't that ill, but in a video-conference with the doctor, the doc just told him...just come on in and get tested. They're testing sick people of all kinds where I'm at, but...not many are sick. So, not many are getting tested.

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Regarding the media. This is how I try to approach it:

  • The sources cited. Where does this information come from? Who is being quoted? What is their expertise? Does it give me enough information to make up my own mind? Look out for those who deem themselves the source of the information. 
  • The language being used. Are they using phrases like "might," "may," could," "seems like," etc. A lot of times the speculative nature isn't addressed directly, but instead implied through language. It's not just the media, you can see this a lot in this thread. I'm guilty of it myself sometimes. Something "seems to be true" or "is probably true," that means it is true, right? Wrong. 
  • The website or channel itself. Is it a major newspaper/news site/network, a website akin to Buzzfeed-ish/We Got This Covered, some sort of "(insert political affiliation) Daily" Facebook page, or is it just some dude on YouTube shouting in his truck? I'm not saying the media is perfect, but the other three are far more untrustworthy as they rarely cite sources nor approach the information presented with critical thought, and prey upon your angers, fears, and doubts regarding the media (or other entities).
  • If someone is ranting and raving like some angry lunatic, I immediately click away. 

I had a speech teacher in film school who hammered this all this into us. I'll never forget what he told us on the first day: "You are not a source for information." He then would ding us for us for making bold claims, implied statistics ("most people this, most people that"), stating something as a fact without either citing a source or at least explaining what it is that makes us an expert on the subject (ex. "I worked in this field for 5 years"). 

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua said:

I had a speech teacher in film school who hammered this all this into us. I'll never forget what he told us on the first day: "You are not a source for information." He then would ding us for us for making bold claims, implied statistics ("most people this, most people that"), stating something as a fact without either citing a source or at least explaining what it is that makes us an expert on the subject (ex. "I worked in this field for 5 years"). 

The problem is every doctor in the world has a different experience. I think they're all telling their truth. But they absolutely do not agree. 

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53 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said:

The problem is every doctor in the world has a different experience. I think they're all telling their truth. But they absolutely do not agree. 

Approach it the same way. Look at the information they're presenting, how they're presenting it, and compare it to other sources.

What that professor taught us was to use critical thought in selecting our information and recognize that we ourselves aren't sources unless we had significant experience that firmly makes us a source on the subject we're discussing (ex. a physicist discussing string theory, a dentist on tooth decay, etc.). In other words, a virologist has more clout in discussing alleged facts about COVID-19 than a layman on Reddit or YouTube whose expertise and experience is significantly less. 

But for what it is worth, most of the articles I've read, the sources have expressed that more data is needed. 

 

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One thing that I would be really curious to see is how many other diseases kinda die out for a while, or don't come back as severe. Social distancing and isolation doesn't only help covid, but it helps things like the regular flu, common cold, pink eye, ect.

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On 5/1/2020 at 11:16 PM, disco2000 said:

But you already said you will not go if KI requires face masks for guests...is that @King Ding Dong fault:P

Why not blame it on @King Ding Dong?  He shuts down WindSeeker and Rivertown Coke Freestyle every time his  car points South  :lol::lol:

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1 hour ago, Joshua said:

Approach it the same way. Look at the information they're presenting, how they're presenting it, and compare it to other sources.

What that professor taught us was to use critical thought in selecting our information and recognize that we ourselves aren't sources unless we had significant experience that firmly makes us a source on the subject we're discussing (ex. a physicist discussing string theory, a dentist on tooth decay, etc.). In other words, a virologist has more clout in discussing alleged facts about COVID-19 than a layman on Reddit or YouTube whose expertise and experience is significantly less. 

But for what it is worth, most of the articles I've read, the sources have expressed that more data is needed. 

 

Critical thinking cannot be stressed enough.

In general, most of our society has lost the art of critical thinking and instead relies on being informed through click-bait, sound bite news articles and headlines, or worse, stuff posted on Facebook and reddit.

How many actually read the click-bait article - most do not.  They go by the headline and assume it is accurate and start sprouting it off as fact on their own social media platforms.  Often times when I read the article, it actually contradicts what the headline is leading you towards.  Does the media care, absolutely not or they wouldn't do it.  Sensationalism sells.  Brings them the revenue.

Here is an example.  Came across this headline article today on reddit:  Brazil is letting the coronavirus run wild with little intervention, and the results are strikingly bad.  

Somebody somewhere is now posting and using this as a reason why flattening the curve works and why the shut-downs were needed.

Heck, I was going to bring this headline here proving why the shut-downs were needed and work.  Fortunately I research, so I found the actual and full article on a more "reputable platform" expecting to see unbelievable death statistics and scenes worse than anything New York City experienced.

Guess what, a country with a population of 209 million people has had 6,300 deaths attributable to Covid-19.  New York City alone is double the number of deaths (13,365) with just a population of 8.3 Million.

The headline is the complete opposite of what the article is saying!

Now maybe Brazil is heading towards worse, maybe not.  The article is inconclusive and doesn't provide enough narrative.  They do not paint the full picture for someone to gauge how bad.  But the snapshot in time numbers they provided are not representative of that headline.

Maybe that will be an appropriate headline in a couple of months, but it certainly isn't the appropriate headline at this moment in time!

I get criticized for my documentaries on this forum, or wall of text as someone calls them LOL.  That is fine, in many cases it simply proves my point that people do not want to read and prefer click-bait headlines...

I do my research and read as much as I can and for the most part I follow what @Joshuaposted above about how one should go about reading and analyzing an article.  I have also been known to find the actual data and graph it myself to confirm that the graph in the article is accurate and not some "not to scale" representation to favor their slant.  I even go one step further and try to find the differing opinions or views.  Let's use politics as the example - I read left and I read right.  Often they disagree, but sometimes there is a little sliver they both agree on - that is probably the fact or the accurate part to hone in on.

I present my research, cite my sources, why I agree or disagree with it, and try to formulate an opinion that is not one-sided.  Sometimes I get it right, sometimes I don't.  Same as the experts or the meteorologist lol.  But I lay it all out there in detail for someone to understand why I came up with the conclusion I did.

One of the problems with social media platforms is that it gives all voices, regardless of how ridiculous, the same equal standing as the intelligent voices.  And what is worse, is that when someone questions a ridiculous viewpoint, instead of the person with a ridiculous statement being able to cite reasons and research for their position, they tend to take the ranting and raving approach.

One of the things that makes our country great is we are entitled to our own opinion without fear of being locked up for having a differing opinion, but if one can present their rational for their opinion, it allows for a much more civil discussion on the merits of that opinion.

TL:DR - don't be educated by click-bait headlines - do your research!

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

Holiday World is now set to open on June 14th! Fun fact: that's my birthday lol

https://wbkr.com/holiday-world-sets-new-2020-opening-date-for-sunday-june-14th/

Interesting tidbit on the FAQs for Holiday World. They may have to borrow trains from other coasters to run Voyage. Wonder if any of KI maintenance done outside the park that could effect their operations as well.

 

Screenshot_20200503-123042_Chrome.jpg

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Here is an interesting article headline - Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model 

So if a graduate of that school comes out and discredits this model and analysis, does that mean they are discrediting the educational value of such an institution... and by inference discount their own education...stay tuned...

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According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. 

 

This sentence is gibberish.

 

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I'm wondering if it's supposed to say, "even if some states..." The sentence makes a little more sense that way. Sometimes editors get this notion that "too many words are bad," but removing too many words can also be bad. 

Also, nitpick here, but I would've flipped the wording too: "even with social distancing rules in place and if some states don't reopen at all." 

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I live in Indiana an have been trying to keep my daily 2:30 “date” with Governor Holcomb and Dr. Box.  What I think has been missed by many discussing on this thread is that strict new rules in regards to capacity and distancing must be in place for businesses to reopen.  The governor and doctor also mention that the plans could change at any second depending on models and data of new cases, hospitalizations, vent capacity, and spread.  Where I live, people haven’t been paying much attention to stay at home measures and are traveling WAY more than BEFORE some orders were put in place.  I read an article in Forbes confirming my hypothesis stating a 30% increase in vehicular and pedestrian traffic over what it was 3 weeks ago.  If you would like me to locate this article and link it, I would be happy to. Why not try to reopen some things if citizens are behaving like caged tigers or ignoring the orders put in place for public health and safety?  These orders don’t go into effect until Monday.  I went out for a taco run today around noon and noticed the volume of traffic was quite a bit less than the last time I was out before the new plan was announced by the governor. The Greenwood Park mall is going to open on Monday so that will be fun to watch.  

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1 hour ago, amapan said:

These orders don’t go into effect until Monday.  I went out for a taco run today around noon and noticed the volume of traffic was quite a bit less than the last time I was out before the new plan was announced by the governor. The Greenwood Park mall is going to open on Monday so that will be fun to watch.  

I believe there are some that saw the stay at home order expired, but didn't understand that it had been replaced with phase 1 which is limited to essential travel until May 4th. It hasn't had much difference in my neighborhood.

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