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SeaWorld makes $3.4 billion takeover bid for Cedar Fair?


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I would be down for this if Cedar Fair went, actually how bout I buy you or at minimum said that most of the corporate suite will stay on, and we will merge a bit of Seaworld's but rely more on Cedar Fair corporate suite to run the company.

Of note, the price is lower than what Six Flags offered Cedar Fair in 2019, 3.4 billion vs 4 billion then. 

I think in this case, Cedar Fair may seriously look at a counter offer. Cedar Fair was damaged by the pandemic but has come out of it in much better financial shape than the other companies. They definitely are not as strong financially as they were in late 2019, but they are stronger than they were after the Great Recession. 

Cedar Fair I think was beginning to approach the wall in terms of what revenue it can generate for the majority of its parks other than Knotts. This would give them a great opportunity to have more parks, but not significantly more parks as a SIX deal would have been(which would have been simply too much for one company to handle in my opinion).

Managing animals and such I believe Cedar Fair could keep the corporate suite and staff that allows those operations to happen, I do not see them simply saying no animals. 

Cedar Fair is in decent shape heading into 2022. Kings Island has kind of stalled in its 8 year trend of getting better overall for me other than Orion in improvements in operations, maintenance quality and care that the park is given since 2019, but the 50th anniversary may change that a little. They made great strides from 2016-2019 in operations, theming, and the overall theme park experience at Kings Island, but the pandemic really did a number on some of it. 

The paramount purchase was risky at the time in 2006, but I believe it was the best decision the company ever made, and this could be a similar line if they go about a much more balanced merger or counteroffer merger. 

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11 hours ago, BeeastFarmer said:

SEAS does  not have 3.4B laying around to buy another chain.  It would be a stock/unit swap and a borrowing of money.  If it happens, it would likely follow the same pattern as when CF bought the CBS parks.  If the economy is booming, it may turn out better, but if the economy tanks, then it will be a bleak outlook.  My beloved KD would get gutted :(  But maybe KI could get another Eiffel Tower for the parking lot, and a skyride could stretch between the two to act as a transport system. ;)

 

 

They could just move KD directly next to KI, tower and all, and then the sky ride would connect to the two. Wouldn't that be something? :P

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Like others have said, this reminds me of the Six Flags offer from a few years back that was made for more. I feel like Sea World has been on shaky footing for the last decade or so and is just starting to get itself out of the "Blackfish" mess...this feels like a desperate stab at keeping a hold in the market. I doubt Cedar Fair would take them up on it, and from my few times going to Sea World (back in Ohio, years ago), I remember it always feeling like a letdown compared to KI or CP. 

I feel like it would almost make more sense for CF to buy SW, as they'd get a toe hold in the Orlando market. But I feel like they want to stay out of that, as it's way too competitive there and they have a nice little thing going by having parks where other chains don't. 

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Something to consider. CF has been dumping a lot of money to internal improvements and paint on everything around the chain just like someone getting ready for a house eval before putting up for sale. May be something, may be nothing. I seriously hope this does not happen. This would be horrible for Kings Island.


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Correct me if I am wrong but wasn't the Six Flags offer to be paid in stocks.  If this Seaworld offer is in "cash" it may be more intriguing for CF to accept.  idk, I'm not a finance expert in these types of dealings.

I actually hope they will not accept the offer.  I have been very pleased with the operations and direction KI is heading under CF.  Even though I have been a skeptic of feeling CF would not let KI shine above CP.  But I accept this in how well the park is ran in my opinion . . I love our management team.  I love Kings Island.

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34 minutes ago, Oldschool75 said:

Something to consider. CF has been dumping a lot of money to internal improvements and paint on everything around the chain just like someone getting ready for a house eval before putting up for sale. May be something, may be nothing. I seriously hope this does not happen. This would be horrible for Kings Island.


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True, remember Winterfest 2005 was as much about showing off the “year round ability” of the parks as it was about really bringing back an event. It was pretty much set dressing to make them look good to buyers. 

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Yes.  However, I think Cedar Fair has been investing in the infrastructure because it can lead to increased guest spending.  Not to mention making sure rides and buildings are painted helps protect them from the weather and can prevent costly maintenance items due to water and corrosion.  Cedar Fair has always kept up with the maintenance and kept a park that looks nice at KI and at CP.

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2 minutes ago, IndyGuy4KI said:

What if this was the other way around and FUN was trying to buy SEAS? How different would the discussion be going at this point?

I would be completely in favor of this as I said above and I think they could counter-offer with this. Even a merger that might have SEA aquire FUN but have FUN corporate suite be the majority of the new company would be something I would be in favor of.

And I think it is telling that they immediately declined the SIX offer within 12-18 hours after the news broke, that is not the case here, its been a day. That does tell me they are talking about it at the least. 

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2 hours ago, rlentless said:

Correct me if I am wrong but wasn't the Six Flags offer to be paid in stocks.  If this Seaworld offer is in "cash" it may be more intriguing for CF to accept.  idk, I'm not a finance expert in these types of dealings.

You are correct.  A stock offer isn't always bad, but the Six Flags offer was mostly in stock at a time when the Six Flags stock price was crashing.

Analysts think this deal will end up in the $70-80 per share range.

Quote

SeaWorld’s current bid reportedly offers Cedar Fair $60 per share, or an enterprise value of around $5.8 billion. Expectations are that attendance rates will continue to rise and even surpass prepandemic levels by next year, meaning the bid could be too low to entice Cedar Fair to agree.

“We believe acquiring [Cedar Fair] at $60 a share would represent a very favorable deal for [SeaWorld] shareholders given the potential accretion that could be realized,” Wieczynski said. “Based on our math, we believe SeaWorld could offer upwards of $70 to $80 [a share] before the deal would become less valuable.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/seaworlds-bid-for-cedar-fair-makes-sense-but-it-may-have-to-pay-more.html

 

 

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22 hours ago, flightoffear1996 said:

Wasn't there issues with them paying for some of the new coasters opening up?  Where are they getting this kind of cash at?

Yes.  They had liens filed on them in 2020 for missing payments on their new rides.     The same rides that sat dormant all of 2021 even though they’re were completed.    Probably for the same reason. 

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8 minutes ago, super7 said:

Yes.  They had liens filed on them in 2020 for missing payments on their new rides.     The same rides that sat dormant all of 2021 even though they’re were completed.    Probably for the same reason. 

Was this truly because they didn't have the financial resources to make the payments, or, was this some sort of behind the scenes contract squabble under extraordinary times?

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On 2/2/2022 at 10:16 PM, Thabto said:

I don't see KD and BGW in close proximity being an issue. Busch Gardens Tampa and Sea World Orlando are only a little over an hour apart (on a day with good traffic) and those parks do just fine. 

But that’s in the Florida thene park  area with Disney Universal Lego etc.   That’s an entirely different scenario than Richmond-Hampton Roads.    Florida is  a worldwide destination where VA is only regional. 
 

They *could* market KD BG as a destination if this disastrous acquisition happened,  but history says overextended theme park companies love to shutter parks for quick cash  (Astroworld, Geauga) 

 

KD has far from met it’s potential under Cedar Fair.   Attendance there is not that great despite being located on the busiest interstate on the East Coast and close to the DC metro area.  Cedar Fair has given Carowinds lots of live but KD not so much.    I believe if it was under the same ownership as BG, it would be even more neglected.  

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On 2/1/2022 at 5:51 PM, Thabto said:

I may be in the minority here, but I actually wouldn't mind CF and SW combining. As pointed out before, SW management has been kind of rocky lately going through so many CEOs. Also, I don't think SW has been in that great of finanical shape as there was some difficulty paying off Iron Gwazi. So can they really afford this? That would be the main concern. But, what if this were to open to door for CF to make a counter-offer? Maybe that's what they are hoping for. Going that route may make more sense. BGT and SWO are my home parks and I enjoy them. If that were to happen, I would just hope they keep their staff that is experienced with caring for the animals. But I don't think CF can afford it either. I think they will reject it just like they did with Six Flags.

I'm open to a merger and feel they could benefit from each other. But would just be concerned about a company that has been struggling some taking on a huge expense and greatly expanded portfolio and being able to maintain it all as well. I don't think they would ruin anything by any means I just really like the way Cedar Fair has been going and feel like they have really been upping their game.

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29 minutes ago, purdude86 said:

I just really like the way Cedar Fair has been going and feel like they have really been upping their game.

Totally agree. I feel they have really gotten in a good place. There is always room from improvement, but if we look at what has changed over the past 5 years, we can totally see how the current managements vision has manifested in the park.

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The clock is ticking.  Will an acceptance or rejection/counter offer come about on a Friday at the end of the day when little attention will be given?

Or, will CF sit on this for a while and keep the unit price riding high going into the earnings release/conference call for investors coming up soon?

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Interesting... 


https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Speculation+Six+Flags+(SIX)+Could+Join+the+Fun+as+Cedar+Fair+(FUN)+Targeted+in+Takeover/19559636.html

Quote

Speculation Six Flags (SIX) Could Join the 'Fun' as Cedar Fair (FUN) Targeted in Takeover
February 4, 2022 9:06 AM EST

Since SeaWorld Entertainment (NASDAQ: SEAS) launched an unsolicited $60 per share, or $3.4 billion, takeover offer for Cedar Fair, L.P. (NYSE: FUN) earlier this week speculation has turned to if rival Six Flags (NYSE: SIX) would again join the fray for the Sandusky, Ohio-based amusement park operator. In 2019, Cedar Fair rejected a $70, or $4 billion, cash-and-stock offer from Six Flags.

Commenting on the speculation today, Stifel analyst David Katz said given the fact that Six Flags was willing to acquireCedar Fair at a higher valuation back in 2019 it could revisit its past offer, even though the board and management have largely changed since that time.

Katz said Six Flags could reasonably acquire Cedar Fair at $60-$80/share, which assumes a leverage ceiling is 4.5X, a mix of stock at $35, and debt assumption that leaves the value of SIX at $47-$57/share. The analyst highlights that the current Six Flags CEO, Selim Bassoul, in his past leadership positions at MIDD has been an active acquirer of roll-up opportunities. Further, the analyst highlights that the geographic overlap between the companies is limited to four of Six Flags' 19 markets.

In addition to being a buyer, Katz thinks Six Flags could also make sense as a seller. "On a comparative, normalized basis, SIX EBITDA margins have ranged between 36%-38% and are expected to be 36.5% according to our estimates," Katz notes. "This compares with FUN, which has ranged from 33%-36% and more noteworthy, SEAS at 40%-42%, according to current consensus, which suggests there could be profit opportunities within SIX as a target." Overall, however, the analyst sees the Six Flags as more of a buyer than a seller and he continues to like the stock.

Six Flags has not commented on rumors it could again be looking at Cedar Fair.

 

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On 2/4/2022 at 11:37 PM, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

While this will be an interesting development to watch in the coming weeks and months, I still highly doubt that Cedar Fair is really interested in selling parks especially the entire company including their biggest money makers like Cedar Point, Knott's, Wonderland, and KI to one of their biggest competitors. 

Unless it’s a leveraged buyout situation, if or when Cedar Fair is sold it’ll almost certainly be to some entity that “could” be seen as their biggest enemy. 
 

By the way, SEAS isn’t on the radar as a threat to the company. That’s just not how this works.

Also: https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2022/02/07/4-reasons-why-cedar-points-parent-is-a-target.html?ana=TRUEANTHEMFB_CI&csrc=6398&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2p5FfLADtXU0LD0_cfVt-h2tv-Y6lB7AFcHL4Sn6ukDmSotrKeqKDeh4s

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Due to the ongoing worldwide covid issues anything is possible, but, I do not think the deal gets done under the disclosed/ current numbers.

There are too many question marks about the value of the current parks CF due to covid as well as current properties that have not come online yet.  What also needs to be included in the mix is when CF took over properties like Knott's & the Paramount parks, the heads of some of those parks acquired a seat at CF's table.  While those parks were purchased by CF, it felt more like mergers.

If the offer was larger it would have more of a chance of being put through.

Why has it taken so long to have an answer?  Probably due to negotiating on the value of the parks (the past two years has done some crazy things to the value of things- think of the current housing & car markets).  CF also has to think of the interests of the shareholders- a quick yes or no would have been unlikely under the current market.  An initial offer was made, it would be in everyone's best interests for CF to counter offer with a "shoot for the moon" number.

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Note: Centerbridge owns Great Wolf Resorts as part of a joint venture with Blackstone.

Quote
  • Centerbridge is said to have built a more than 5% stake in Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN), the amusement park operator subject to a takeover offer from SeaWorld (NYSE:SEAS).
  • The private equity firms is said to believe that Cedar Fair could get interest from other amusement park chains if it puts itself up for sale, according to traders, who cited a Bloomberg report.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3799086-centerbridge-said-to-build-stake-in-takeover-target-cedar-fair

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/centerbridge-is-said-to-build-stake-in-buyout-target-cedar-fair

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