disco2000

What about toilet paper - did they have any?

As I have mentioned in other threads - there has to be a date they are looking at that they simply remain closed the rest of the year and your pass is valid for 2021...I feel like an August opening and they would be better off to simply stay closed at that point - no corporate events are going to happen after that, vacations of people buying daily admission drops substantially, etc. and those are about 50% of their attendance... If they open in August and from then until the rest of the year 90% of those in attendance are season pass holders, they have no real income the rest of this year...and what about parks that do not have Haunt or Winterfest - not going to open them for two weeks... Any delayed opening beyond May and they will get so many requests for refunds, partial refunds, etc.... and if they don't open until July and simply say your pass is good for this year and the rest of next year...guess how many passes they sell for 2021???? No matter what they do they will get requests for refunds, etc. and people claiming "they are never getting another dime of my money", so they will look at it and do projections as to which way can they stay financially solvent...and it could mean not opening in 2020... Could this be the end of payment plans if too many people simply stop paying on them? And in the short term, they will have a difficult time selling passes for the following year in August like they typically do...people will now wait until their park opens and pay a little more... This will create a whole new way of doing business from this point forward...

It's....complicated... https://www.forbes.com/sites/evangerstmann/2020/03/25/are-stay-at-home-orders-constitutional/#7bd3b529104e https://padailypost.com/2020/03/25/are-stay-at-home-orders-constitutional-experts-have-questions/ What sucks is the freedom to allow the idiots to continue not doing their part and spreading the virus having "coronavirus parties" and traveling to spring break with no consequences takes precedence over your freedom to stay healthy....

I'm doing it right so it wouldn't directly impact me LOL...but the point I was making is when our elected officials say in one breath they are issuing a stay-at-home order and within the same breath also say they have instructed the police not to enforce it....that is how we get the images like above that @King Ding Dong posted... Why would people comply and stay home if there is no "threat" that they could get pulled over and given a ticket or be sent to jail???? Unfortunately, our stay-at-home orders are basically lip-service...

Keep in mind the original and entire intent of the single rider line is to fill the train WHEN there are open seats available AFTER all other available queue lines have been placed. The single rider lane is not to be given any preferential treatment or some ratio like regular line to Fast Lane ratios. It is not an entitled line. It is simply to fill a spot if there are any. So if they can fill every train from the regular and Fast Lane lines, then the single queue waits. If they happened to place you before they filled up the rows from the other line, then you got lucky as that is not the intent... Now what else happened to you - yeah that shouldn't happen in any scenario but many people are rude...

Just because their numbers are low doesn’t mean they don’t have it. Malaysia and India also do not have widespread access to testing capabilities and they went under extreme lockdown. In Ohio (population 11.7 million), we have tested 20,000, whereas in Malaysia (population 32.4 million) they have only tested 25,000, and India (population 1.4 Billion) has only tested 14,200. They have some of the lowest number of tests taken per population stats in the world. As they get the capability, their percentages of affected are comparable to other parts of the world…look at the graph I posted above... But hey, if you don’t test then you don’t have it right… Their lockdowns are so severe, that the police will literally beat you on the street if you are in non-compliance. Their borders are completely locked down to. Meanwhile in our country, our elected officials announce stay at home orders in one sentence, and the next sentence they state that they have told the police not to enforce it and not to pull people over and not ask where they are going…and we wonder why people in our country are not adhering to the Orders… https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52063286 https://qz.com/india/1826387/indias-coronavirus-lockdown-brings-police-brutality-to-the-fore/

And these were countries with some of the most restrictive measures in place (see my post in the other thread on page 28 for a compare/contrast)....imagine what our second wave is gonna look like... unfortunately I see our country looking to "re-open" sooner than some of these countries did... The deadliest part of the 1918 flu pandemic was the second wave (it had three)..aren't we supposed to learn from history to not make the same mistakes....

And just like that due to second wave, some Japan parks that had re-opened have temporarily re-closed...https://www.fujiq.jp/en/news/h5f6de000001wfow.html It will be interesting to see if this closure lasts beyond the weekend... China has already started their re-closings, so I am sure this trend will continue... And our little state of Ohio now has more coronavirus cases than Japan...

Interesting graphic...a little dated, but the trending is still accurate...

Where is the article about Cedar Fair and payment plans https://www.wcpo.com/money/consumer/dont-waste-your-money/gyms-facing-backlash-for-billing-during-shutdown

Speaking of travel....check out the global impact contributing to the spread of Coronavirus just from those that decided it was more important to spring break in Ft. Lauderdale.... https://mobile.twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

So China had some of the strictest measures when the outbreak occurred in terms of isolation and stay at home and requirements when going out, etc (see my post on page 28) and China had recently started re-opening attractions. Now many of them are being re-closed due to new outbreaks and their borders have been shut down again...and we can probably expect to see attractions re-opening in Japan follow this route within two weeks...and this is probably a strong indicator of what will happen here once things start to re-open... https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-shuts-down-all-cinemas-again-1287040 https://deadline.com/2020/03/china-orders-re-closing-all-cinemas-nationwide-1202894103/ https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/china-to-suspend-entry-of-foreigners-starting-saturday-20200326

KI used to have them on several rides....and then they became Fast Lane lines...

What is interesting is that curve is different than what they have been saying (peaking mid-may and at peak 8,000 new cases per day for days on end). That graph at the end appears that by May 24th the new cases are just about non-existent... It would be nice if that is true!!! I guess time will tell.

The big question that nobody knows the answer to is what is the acceptable number of new daily cases before places start the re-opening process. If we peak mid-May and that peak lasts for a month before daily cases start dropping, what is the acceptable number of new cases? It could happen, but it would be crazy to start re-opening if the new daily count is higher than the day before...but how many days of declining daily new counts do we have to have before everyone deems it is safe and what is an acceptable number to say once below this in daily new counts it will be deemed safe?

It is my opinion and a business perspective on how a company may go about this and their thought process. I am sure CF brass have at least discussed a date in which it doesn't make sense to open. You have to look at that aspect of the forecasting and weigh it against all other conflicting constraints like someone saying "they will never get my money again" and make a determination on the best course of action. I am trying to counter the too simplistic of an approach to say "it doesn't make any economic sense to not open the parks" that many people are using as their argument why they will re-open this year. We have no idea what "bailouts" are going to come from the federal government as they all haven't been developed yet. We have no idea if CF has some "catastrophic insurance policy" to cover the event of an entire season not opening because of some world crisis (and if they have such a policy it would only be applicable if they do not open). Plus there are tons of accounting and tax regulations and other situations that we are not privy to that a company will look to use to the best of their advantage. There is a reason so many corporations do not pay taxes... If one of the bailouts for example is that seasonal attractions that do not open in 2020 will have debt interest forgiven or delayed or a bailout to "make them whole", but if they re-open in 2020 then the payments begin and/or bailouts are significantly reduced, it might make economic sense for a park not to open this season...You don't think that will happen - well college students don't pay on government student loans and interest doesn't start until they leave college...I know it isn't quite the same, but we have no idea what bailouts are going to happen in these unprecedented times. Cedar Fair and other companies will be crunching the numbers as it stands right now and as new information becomes available. I am sure they have developed a date that says if the parks don't open by (insert date here), then financially the start up costs to get going will not exceed anticipated revenue. They may even have clauses in debt service payment related to making payments after every X number of days in operation so that could drive a decision... At a certain point it will simply be easier to remain closed and simply have season passes for 2020 valid in 2021. Any opening this year will inevitably create so many scenarios and requests for full refunds or pro-rated or whatever for those that already bought passes. Sometimes a simple sit it out and reboot next year makes the most sense... Orders and declarations passed because of this virus could allow the government to take over hotels and other areas for triage or other staging grounds to deal with the sick once hospitals are beyond capacity because people are defying orders to maintain separation...an amusement park parking lot would make an ideal location for one of these temporary centers...kinda hard to open a park when the parking lot is not available...Just yesterday during the Ohio Governor press conference they mentioned Ohio could see 8,000 new cases a day at its peak... Now golf courses in some states are being forced to close - those are way more spread out and less people than an amusement park. In these unprecedented times, things may not make sense based on looking at it from a simplistic, single sided approach, but when given all the information, companies will chart the best course they feel makes sense given all the variables and other items at their disposal, many of which we will never be privy to... Assume the park will not open, and then when it does, you can be pleasantly surprised and elated and happy and excited. There are more important issues right now than opening amusement parks... I too am to the point I have no desire to go to crowded area this year, so I am totally fine with 2020 passes being valid in 2021... Adding more days to next year sounds like a great idea!

But most (maybe all) states have excluded religious activities from the ban....thus protecting the separation of church and state as the law calls for....which long term is probably contributing to the spread...

Quite the opposite and this was inline with your thinking but from a different approach or angle....I was making the argument that the longer this goes on the more money they will lose by opening this year as they already have pass holders money...and people should prepare for the reality they may not open and passes for 2020 will be good for 2021... Let me try another way - if the park remains closed all year is of an abundance of safety and precaution with this still unknown virus and it happens to save them money too, well that is a byproduct of their decision. A lot of people think the park will open as soon as possible and I am suggesting that there is a date in which it doesn't make sense to open this year... people may think not opening means they lose money and that may not be the case this year...

Well dang...and I know nurses that worked at a hospital and chose last year to move to other elective branches of their employer and just had hours cut drastically and was told they do not have a need for them in the hospital setting and claim to be well staffed??? https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/i-team/cincinnati-doctors-emts-face-pay-cuts-in-face-of-covid-19-pandemic

Well, it does lead towards the slippery slope called welfare... There are tons of people out there making a very good living on welfare. How many on this site make more than $29/hour? Well if you lived in Hawaii, that would be your hourly rate equivalent on welfare. In Pennsylvania it is almost $14/hr. Many states pay you more per kid, so it encourages one to have more kids. More kids = mo' money... Once you get on that train, it is hard to find motivation to get off of it. To a lot of people, that is more than they would make working. What incentive is there to take a minimum wage job if you can get more on government assistance. Plus you get drug tested for work, but you are not subject to drug testing to get government benefits (although some states are now able to get legislation passed to make that a requirement)... For those that would break even, why work if you you can instead go to amusement parks all summer and not have to work? I know people on that train...and they have learned how to play the system. Welfare is supposed to be limited to 5 years, but there are so many loopholes and exceptions that it can be a career for some people. SNAP benefits are not time limited. Lot's of other programs fall somewhere in between...

So in 3 days, USA now leads the number of confirmed cases. Strive to be #1 Country Population #Confirmed Cases USA 330 Million 85, 268 China 1.4 Billion 81,340 Japan 127 Million 1,292 Japan has dropped to 29th on the list, even with a recent uptick in cases. Meanwhile Ohio (population 11.5 million) is only 425 cases away from surpassing Japan...

Another thing to consider, and I know several people have said this as well, including myself, that many will still fear being around people even after the all-clear is given. It will take time to return to some sort of “normalcy”. For example purposes, if for some reason the park is able to open August 15th, by that time most of the company picnics and what not will have been cancelled and that is a significant revenue stream. A lot of people have lost their jobs and/or will use their discretionary funds differently, so maybe the daily admission revenue disappears as they use the money on other things. Cedar Fair announced that last year season pass holders made up around 50% of the attendance, thus company outings and daily admission make up the rest. If they lose the company outings and daily admission portion, a significant “new” revenue stream is now gone. They already have the pass holder money, so if they project that opening After August 15th results in the only attendance they would get for the rest of the year would be pass holders with meal and drink plans, then they lose money opening this year as they would have expenditures with no new revenue stream… Under this scenario, if they open August 15th and announce all 2020 passes purchased will be valid in 2021, then they lose even more money by opening in August because they would have expenditures the rest of 2020 and then all of 2021. If the projections are that only 10 percent (or whatever percent they decide) would be daily admissions or company outings if they open after August 15th (or whatever date they use to make the decision), financially at some point it makes sense to not open and to have your 2020 season pass only valid for calendar year 2021 and not 5 months of 2020 and all of 2021… Will they have people take to Facebook and complain KI is never getting any of their money ever again in this situation - yes - but no matter what they do, people are going to say that - people are already saying that now. They will use all their information and take into account the number of people that would "never visit again" and if that is offset by new people that would be enticed by whatever pass offerings they offer for 2021, then that is what they will do.

Japan is now seeing an uptick in new cases since they started to loosen requirements last weekend and their leaders are encouraging everyone to shelter indoors this weekend to try to reverse the trend... Japan hasn't declared an emergency yet, but if their numbers don't decline we will probably be reading about the few parks that started to reopen close again... I would think ramping up for a park opening and then open for a week and then have to shut down again for two-three months would be more devastating to a regional chain financially than just staying closed....which is why I think we will see the Disney and Universal be some of the last parks to re-open as they will want to wait it out and see if a second wave hits...

And here I thought your pun was about a side-effect of hydroxychloroquine being itching...

Meanwhile in a California hospital...