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The New York Post is reporting a battle between Apollo Management and shareholders at Great Wolf Lodges: http://www.nypost.co...fsCtXyJVspFQLMK The opening paragraph of the NYPost story, in reference to the recent failed Apollo attempt to take Cedar Fair private, speaks volumes, "Leon Black’s Apollo Global Management must be hoping that history does not repeat itself." Why is Apollo once again at odds with shareholders? Shareholders may not wish to surrender the upside potential at Great Wolf just as the light at the end of the tunnel is coming into focus. The deal discounts any "tax loss credit" advantage--and thus many believe it to be significantly under priced. Many shareholders know the best returns are not necessarily to be found in selling out to private equity funds. Shareholders question sweet-heart deals made to retain and reward current management with bonuses when deals close. What challenges does Apollo face to consummate this deal? The deal calls for fifty percent of the shares to be tendered at the $5.00 offer price or the deal is off (as I understand the documents--keep in mind I am not a lawyer--never even played one on television). This is a high hurdle when approximately 50% of the share float was recently held by institutional investors and many of those institutions insist share have a today value in the $8 to $9 range. Great Wolf shares continue to briskly trade at prices well above the offered tender price--closing Thursday at $5.52 a share. About half of the share float has changed hands since the merger announcement. One must wonder, "who is buying all those shares, and why would they pay more than $5.00 each?" You can pretty well bet the answer is not, "So they can transfer them in a $5.00 tender taking and be rewarded with a fifty-plus cents loss per share." That works out to an annualized loss in the neighborhood of 260%. What if shares are being acquired by the institutions already holding shares? What if a significant number of retail investors decide not to tender shares? Doing the math it seems a strong possibility Apollo may not reach the threshold of 50% required to effect the merger. What does Great Wolf have to say? Bloomberg reports managements stated belief, "the sale would maximize shareholder value." What does Apollo have to say? The NY Post reports, "An Apollo spokesman declined comment." Ah, right. Sounds a lot like the proposed Cedar Fair Apollo marriage.