Cedar Fair: Sale? Re-Finance? What Next?

[CedarPointer]

Why not require all of your area managers to eat at least one meal in the park per week, paid out of their own pocket? Would the Food Services Manager feel the same way about $4 Cokes if he had to spend his own money on one? Or, better yet, why not require your area managers to buy dinner for a random family of guests in the park once every week or two?

You just made my day. Thank you.

[The Interpreter]

It should probably be noted that usually after an acquisition goes bust, the would be acquired company's stock goes bust. Not this time. Friday, FUN closed at $14.11, up $1.22 or 9.46 percent on nearly double the usual average daily volume, with more than 857,000 units traded...

[CrashOverRided]

It should probably be noted that usually after an acquisition goes bust, the would be acquired company's stock goes bust. Not this time. Friday, FUN closed at $14.11, up $1.22 or 9.46 percent on nearly double the usual average daily volume, with more than 857,000 units traded...

woooo hoooo . ok things might be looking up then.

[The Interpreter]

NEVER make decisions based on one trading day. That which goes up will either keep going up, stay the same or go down. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of anything...at all.

[CrashOverRided]

so true..... maybe i was overlyexcited... Past performance IS ONLY PROOF OF FURTURE performance

[CoastersRZ]

Wow. I knew Cedar Fair had been trading up after the merger had been called off, but didn`t know the price had gone that high yesterday! I wonder why the volume was so high?

It also should be noted that Rick Munarriz over at the Motley Fool posted an upbeat snippet on Cedar Fair on Friday, and can be read here: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/04/09/this-weeks-5-smartest-stock-moves.aspx.

[The Interpreter]

With all due respect to Mr. Munarriz, I have found his recent viewpoints on FUN to be all over the map, to be nice about things. It's almost as if he has no idea what to write so he fills up the page.

[The Interpreter]

New Options Allow Cedar Fair To Fight Hostile Takeover:

http://www.sanduskyr...ont/2005960.txt

The comments are rather, uh..., interesting.

[CoastersRZ]

I would definitely say that the comments are interesting. They definitely don`t seem to be in favor of Dick Kinzel, to say the least.

[The Interpreter]

And that is in Sandusky's hometown newspaper. At one time, the Register quickly edited them out. That doesn't seem to happen anymore. To me, that speaks volumes.

[KIfan1980]

Two quick comments:

- it's scary that a newspaper ever edited out reader comments just because they were negative. I thought journalists prided themselves on upholding the right to free speech

- it's nice to see that Cedar Fair leadership is worried about "fair and equitable" treatment of unit holders in the event of a takeover. At least now that the Management and Sons only friendly Apollo deal is dead. [\end sarcasm]

[The Interpreter]

Cedar Fair units continue to trade VERY strongly. Today, closed at $15.29, up 0.92 or 6.40% in one day. Note that Mr. Kinzel tried to sell unit holders on a deal where they would have been frozen out at $11.50 per unit. So far, if the sale had succeeded, the buyers...and NOT the unit holders, would have captured more than $208 million that is currently in the unit holders assets...provided the units are currently fairly valued....

[The Interpreter]

FUN Upward Momentum Looks To Continue:

http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/technical-analysis/cedar-fair-upward-momentum-looks-continue-fun-0

Do remember this is the view of a technician, not a fundamentalist...as those terms are used in the stock market milieu.

[CoastersRZ]

I am shocked that Cedar Fair has been moving upwards this much. Especially after they dissolved the proposed deal with Apollo. I wonder what is fueling this upcharge in the unit price of late. I mean, it has gained nearly $2 since last Thursday, which is significant when the units are trading for only around $15!

[The Interpreter]

My guess? Speculation (or a leak) that refinancing has been arranged. Or another offer to buy...

[CoastersRZ]

Well, both could make the units tick upward. I still have to wonder what Q is up to. They have been really quite after denouncing that the Six Flags rumor was premature. Could they be in talks to purchase Cedar Fair, especially since the poison pill was instituted by Cedar Fair? Only time will tell.

If they were able to re-finance their loans, it also means that Kinzel and Co. will likely stay with the company, which in my opinion may not be the best thing for the long run of the company. Especially seeing how they were the ones that tried to pitch the $11.50 price to unit holders as a great deal.

[The Interpreter]

You assume, good sir, that the lenders would not have a condition for their refiancing that management be changed. Stranger things have happened. Accompanied, usually, by nice parting gifts for the soon to be departed...

Also, the annual meeting is coming. And analysts calls will doubtless resume, should the company continue to be a public company.

[CoastersRZ]

Very true.

Shouldn`t they be having a conference call within the next month or so, assuming the resume such things in May?

[The Interpreter]

Either that or right after the annual results are announced. Stocks usually trade on rumor...and something IS causing this drastic, and it is, upturn. It may be a bunch of hooey, but often where there is smoke there is either fire, heat or a great enlightening. Sometimes, though, it is the predecessor of fire and brimstone.

[The Interpreter]

Below are the top five companies in the Leisure Facilities industry ranked by the lowest short interest ratio. A low short interest ratio may indicate that there are only a few people who are bearish on the stock.

Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) has a short interest ratio of 0.6 and average daily volume of 480,000 shares, which implies that approximately 287,000 shares are short. That equates to 0.5% of the 55.3 million shares outstanding....

SmarTrend is bullish on shares of FUN and our subscribers were alerted to Buy on November 27, 2009 at $8.12. The stock has risen 86.5% since the alert was issued.

http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/top-5-companies-leisure-facilities-industry-smallest-short-interest-fun-rick-

So, very few investors have shorted Cedar Fair units at the moment...Depending on what one thinks of herds...this is either very good news or could be a warning omen.

[The Interpreter]

The conference call has just been announced: Thursday, May 6 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

See:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cedar-fair-announces-2010-first-quarter-earnings-conference-call-2010-04-15?reflink=MW_news_stmp

[CoastersRZ]

Kind of ironic that I was just questioning when the next conference call would be, just yesterday, and then today, here is the confirmation of when it will be!

[The Interpreter]

Had the Apollo deal been approved, there would have been no such call...

[CoastersRZ]

Yes. Because then Cedar Fair would no longer be a public entity. Publicly traded entities are required to have conference calls, whereas private companies and firms are not required to disclose any such information, because they do not have outstanding shareholders that have a share in the company. (Many private companies in fact do have shares, except they are closely held by a select group of individuals and not traded on the public markets. Coney Island used to be this way until Taft Broadcasting purchased the park. And another prime example are the Cincinnati Reds. The majority owner is Bob Castellini, but there are other minority shareholders who also own a minor portion of the Reds.)

[The Interpreter]

There is no requirement for even public companies to have such calls. There is, however, strict regulation about how non-public information can be disclosed...so that, theoretically at least, all information is equally available to any outsider if it is available to one...

[CoastersRZ]

Right. But most public companies will disclose their financial materials in some manner or another. Via a press release or conference call. The SEC is the one that regulated most of the information disclosure, which is why so many things companies release about their financial activity are filed with the SEC.

[The Interpreter]

FUN Offers Investors The Worst Value in the Leisure Facilities Industry:

Below are the top five companies in the Leisure Facilities industry as measured by the price to book ratio.

Often companies with the highest ratio present the worst value to investors.

Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) has a price to book ratio of 6.6x based on a current price of $15.34 and a book value per share of $2.31....

SmarTrend is bullish on shares of FUN and our subscribers were alerted to Buy on November 27, 2009 at $8.12. The stock has risen 88.9% since the alert was issued.

(emphasis added)

http://www.mysmartre...ustry-fun-mtn-l

"worst value" "bullish on shares"

And now you see why I don't put much faith in stock market "technicians." In my book, you could learn more about the stock market's future by looking at the pattern of tea leaves in the bottom of Mr. Falfas's teacup than from them. When it comes to the market, I am a fundamentalist. The market normally prices things out based on fundamentals and expectations and news...not on past trends correctly charted. To the extent others are technicians, they can and do affect markets (expectations), but not nearly as much as they think. Then again, there's a market for their services, people do buy them, and that's why they do what they do. To each, their own. Just don't expect me to pay for their services. I won't be.

And yes, this time that November call made a lot of money for their subscribers...and you see it touted. Just as many calls don't, and you won't see those. Just as diet plans bring out their 100 pound losers and tout them. (Results not typical). They do not show you the thousands and thousands who paid mucho money, and then either quit after a few weeks and/or lost nearly nothing and/or gained back all they lost and then some....

[The Interpreter]

Remember Apollo? Remember those who thought if they bought Cedar Fair, they would pay off the debt and the debt problems would be over? Remember that the unit holders wouldn't agree to sell so Apollo went off and is trying to buy CKE, the company that owns Hardee's and Carl's Jr. restaurants? So, what are apparently doing now? Selling more debt for CKE!

CKE Restaurants Inc., operator of the Carl's Jr. and Hardee's fast-food chains, is marketing debt as investors gain confidence the economic recovery won't stall.

CKE Restaurants may sell $600 million of eight-year notes to help pay for its acquisition by Apollo Management LP, according to a person familiar with the offering who declined to be identified because terms aren't set....

http://www.businessw...ssue-alert.html

I honestly believe Cedar Fair unit holders not only acted in their own enlightened self interest, they helped Cedar Fair avoid what would have been a problematic future. Oh, what will Apollo pay for CKE? About the same amount of cash it would have had to fork over for Cedar Fair...and now it is probably selling debt to cover the CKE acquisition. CKE shareholders vote on June 30.

MEANWHILE, while Dick Kinzel did tell the Toledo Blade that the refi was off, all sources since then continue to mention the potential offering of debt for Cedar Fair...so who knows what will happen next on that front. Stay tuned...We will know more about this before the season's past.

[CoastersRZ]

I`ve noticed the same thing with recent articles still mentioning the refinancing. Seems odd.

[The Interpreter]

I humbly suggest that yet again perhaps Mr. Kinzel misspoke. Usually, Mr. Falfas or Ms. Frole is there to gently correct him. Apparently this time that did not happen. Odd there was apparently no correction to the Toledo paper later...