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Cedar Fair: Sale? Re-Finance? What Next?


KIBOB
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Please excuse my ignorance for not already knowing this. If Six Flags and Cedar Fair were to merge under Apollo Management, would that be every major park in the country being owned by one group?

No. Busch Gardens, Parc Management parks, Universal, Legoland parks, Disney parks, and Hershey.

It sure would be a good chunk of them however!

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at least when cp bought ki it was quick and easy. they came in and fired senior people and moved on. this new disaster could go on and on and on and on. i feel for the few that have survived this long in upper managment.

I would hardly call that quick and easy.

i know it sounds cold but cp didnt play games and look us all in the eye and say it will be okay. After afew meetings we knew that it was over. dept by dept you were offered a job with less pay or walked out the gate. some dept vp on down gone no offer. hr was wiped out in one day

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For those who want to know where the Cedar Fair and the current Six Flags properties are on the map, if, by some odd chance, Apollo decides they want to merge the two companies together:

cedarfairsixflags.jpg

Six Flags properties are red dots, Cedar Fair in blue. Please excuse the small font; hastily threw this together in MS Paint in ten minutes. Oh, and I forgot to add Wildwater Kingdom to GL's name.

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Q Through Buying Units, At Least for Now:

The battle to decide the future of Cedar Fair LP took another twist yesterday with the majority shareholder stating it no longer seeks to buy more shares of the company at above-market prices - an offer it sent to other shareholders two weeks ago.

That could mean the majority shareholder believes it now has the votes to block the sale of Cedar Fair to Apollo Global Management LLC of New York.

It would take just 34 percent of shares cast to scuttle the $2.4 billion sale. Opponents say the $11.50-a-share purchase price is too low. The election is scheduled Tuesday in Sandusky....

http://toledoblade.c...INESS03/3100353

And the Sandusky Register finally has a reasonable summary of where things stand:

http://www.sanduskyregister.com/articles/2010/03/10/front/doc4b96b3353e37d977461025.txt

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Things are back to normal with the crack staff at the Sandusky Register. This morning's big Cedar Fair "news":

a. The consolidated lawsuits may be settled and a hearing canceled:

http://www.sanduskyr...ont/1957705.txt

Reported the 6th of March, FIVE DAYS ago, by the Morning Journal. See my post here:

http://www.KICentral...ndpost&p=366060

b. Apollo may intend to also buy Six Flags:

http://www.sanduskyr...ont/1959457.txt

Reported by the Wall Street Journal night before last. See my post here:

http://www.KICentral...ndpost&p=366606

So, you might ask, why has the Sandusky Register not reported either earlier? Perhaps, this, from the last article, might help:

...Stacy Frole, Cedar Fair's director of investor relations, said Wednesday Cedar Fair had no comment.

"We wouldn't be able to speak to Apollo's intentions," she said. "That would be a question geared toward Apollo."

A spokeswoman for Apollo said the company has no comment.

Frole said she can't say anything about the discussions last year between Avenue Capital Management and Cedar Fair's executives.

"We don't comment on our conversations with potential investors," she said....

She probably cannot add that, under the merger agreement, Cedar Fair MUST continue to recommend the merger and make no negative comments, or suffer financial consequences. I suspect the Register had been waiting for Ms. Frole's comments before they published (and didn't know or didn't really think that Ms. Frole is very limited in what she is allowed to say).

The alternative is even more cynical and/or mean. And that would be they don't report Cedar Fair news until Stacy Frole calls them because either they give the company that much deference or they are not diligent enough and/or don't have the time to go out and look for it. Or they could at least read it here!

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Some very interesting price action is evident today on Cedar Fair units. Currently, as of 11:43am Cedar Fair is trading at $12.33 per unit up 10.77% on the day, with a vote set to be held tomorrow for $11.50 per unit. I will allow others to do the math!

Today's volume before noon, is well over 1,030,000 and consistently climbing. The three month average volume you ask? Why its 691,338 of course!

One final comment: If you were certain that you would be selling your units for $11.50 per unit, why would you bid the units up? Maybe you are 100% certain the units will not be sold for $11.50 a unit perhaps?

03/16/2010 (tomorrow)

Q

Some things to ponder...

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Question i been wanting to ask, but always forget to. Many times people on this site have said The fate of Son of Beast will be decided after the fate of Cedar Fair. So my question is if Apollo takes over does SOB have a greater chance of staying, or does it need Cedar Fair to stay in charge to remain standing?

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Question i been wanting to ask, but always forget to. Many times people on this site have said The fate of Son of Beast will be decided after the fate of Cedar Fair. So my question is if Apollo takes over does SOB have a greater chance of staying, or does it need Cedar Fair to stay in charge to remain standing?

No one really knows. Apollo is about making money(pretty sure) and if they remove the ride it will cost them a lot of money and if they do choose to reopen the ride there is a chance of getting sued if the ride has another accident. In my opinion I think Son of Beast will be SBNO until the end of this year and the decision will be made to remove it, reopen it, or change the track.

I'm not an expert on this so please correct me if I'm wrong! :)

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Question i been wanting to ask, but always forget to. Many times people on this site have said The fate of Son of Beast will be decided after the fate of Cedar Fair. So my question is if Apollo takes over does SOB have a greater chance of staying, or does it need Cedar Fair to stay in charge to remain standing?

I would maintain that none of us know. The point of people saying that was, if Cedar Fair is on the verge of a massive change in funding, even in leadership, the very last thing on their to-do list right now is to pour time and energy into doing anything (constructive or destructive) to one roller coaster at one of their parks. They're not even sure how much longer they'll own the parks.

So much as yet to be decided internally within the company. Say you owned a successful, but indebted, pizza business with a dozen locations that was attempting to undergo a massive and unprecedented buyout or face inevitably bankruptcy. Now say that one of your dozen pizza locations sold one particular type of pizza that was hit-or-miss. Some liked it, some hated it. And many called for you to re-evaluate its recipe, scrap all or most of your ingredients for it, relaunch a new ad campaign, and start over fresh, costing hundreds of dollars. During such an incredibly transitory time where quite literally anything could happen to your business as a whole, you would probably say, "Can't it wait?" In the meantime, you might just stop selling that particular style of pizza for a while. Then, you can regroup later when you have more time and money. But it's certainly not top priority now, and it's near impossible to say what actions may be taken later (if there is a later).

Now that's an extended metaphor!

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3/16/10 will keep my droid singing all day. all i want is for ki to be owned by someone who cares about the park and employees. that seems simple enough right? i wish cf all the luck but i am tired of ki being treated like a red headed step child. i hope not to offend any red headed step children. this darn game has been going on since paramount bought the parks. i worked rides in hs when that wentt down. all the borg walking around and the star treck semi thing parked by The Vortex. ah the good old days and then of my god what did we get our selves in to. sorry ill get off my soap box.

thank you The Interpreter for keeping this thread updated with great info

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I'm gonna be checking KIC non stop tomorrow (Also on a DROID!) To see the latest. While in my eyes it seems nearly impossible for the sale to go through at 11.50 a share, the variables like increasing the offer, the reaction from Q, and Terpy's analysis on the situation, will have me clinging on every vote.

Jackson, who wrote "Cedar Fair Vote!" In his School Planner on 031610, and when asked about the meaning of it, responded "It's an Enthusiast thing." Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of KI's life.

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I, too, want resolution. While those in high places at Cedar Fair will tell you they are not distracted from the day to day chores of running the parks, there is no way that can be even remotely true. Over at Six Flags, the same story of a somewhat different book is being read. In the next few weeks, the future of the US and Canada seasonal park industry will be forever changed. How neither I nor anyone else quite knows yet.

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The only way I see the Cedar Fair portion of this to be remotely resolved tomorrow is in the unlikely event that the owners of 2/3 of the units vote FOR the merger. I cannot see that happening. If the vote is less than 2/3, but close, look for Cedar Fair to attempt to adjourn the meeting while it attempts to round up more votes...or for Apollo to possibly raise its offer...which could possibly add weeks or even months to this.

Also, remember, there is still pending litigation in this matter, and the little matter of just exactly what happens if the deal is decisively defeated...then what?

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3/16/10 will keep my droid singing all day. all i want is for ki to be owned by someone who cares about the park and employees. that seems simple enough right? i wish cf all the luck but i am tired of ki being treated like a red headed step child. i hope not to offend any red headed step children. this darn game has been going on since paramount bought the parks. i worked rides in hs when that wentt down. all the borg walking around and the star treck semi thing parked by The Vortex. ah the good old days and then of my god what did we get our selves in to. sorry ill get off my soap box.

thank you The Interpreter for keeping this thread updated with great info

I'm fairly sure that Cedar Fair cares about the parks. We've gotten not one, but two new coasters within the few years that CF has owned the parks, let alone a new kids area theme and dark ride retheme for 2010.

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Wow. So now, the logical question would be are they close to securing the 2/3 vote they need? Or were the reported rumors that caused the bump in the unit price today true, and Apollo is considering raising their initial offer price?

I find it hard to believe that Apollo would offer more money. And still, even if they offer the rumored $13.50, how many unit holders are going to take that offer price? Cedar Fair keeps stressing how it is a premium over where the unites were trading at. However, what they fail to note, is that several years back, the units were trading for more than twice what they are trading at now.

So all this anticipation about finally hearing some information about the vote tomorrow, and now its rescheduled. I wonder if Cedar Fair will offer any additional insights into the decision to postpone. Was this a result of the lawsuits?

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