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Cedar Fair Stock Drops To Five Year Low


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What makes you think they might not go BK or out of business? People are starting to pull money from the entertainment budget to cover the cost of 'red hot inflation' for energy, food, etc... Both CF and SF have admitted season pass sales are not going well (which might give a hint at how 2008 attendance and income may be headed). If you add in CF debt load, with the potential for lower earning, you get a very interesting year(s) coming up for the company. I am not say CF is going to go BK, but I still believe they are going to have to unload a few parks to get some much need future cash.

The housing ATM machine is now gone and it was feeding a lot growth for businesses and industries in the US. The real issue for CF and the rest of theme park industry is going to be, can they capture their share of the shrinking household dollar and how much will that share be?

On a little side note: I think KI is going to have a 'difficult year' since it appears they are not getting any major new attraction, while, HW (new rides and water area), Indiana Beach (new coaster), CP (kids area and coaster), Kennywood (new dark ride) are adding new rides/attractions and the Columbus Zoo is opening up a new water park and ride area.

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Yes, other area attractions and parks might be adding new things in 2008 (I`ve heard a rumor that even Coney is going to get a new ride of some sort next year). However, that in itself will not mean that Kings Island will have a bad year if they don`t get a new ride. The entertainment department last year had a very good year, the best out of the last several seasons. I`m sure that they will want to continue to provide fun and energetic entertainment in 2008. They may even toss in a few surprises. Firehawk is still relatively new to Kings Island, and they can likely still draw some people to the park with that ride. As long as they get a new attraction in 2009, they should be fine.

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I guess we will have to wait and see how it goes. It just seems that if people are cutting back on 'entertainment spending' then the parks may have some challenges ahead. Also, if you decide to only go to one park for the year, there is a good chance you may choose a park that has something new for you to experience and almost all of the surrounding parks will have that in 2008.

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But realistically, how many people from the Cincinnati area are going to make a trip to Holiday World or even Six Flags Kentucky Kingdom, Beech Bend or Indiana Beech. Each of these parks has a pretty significant drive time to get to. Especially if there are young kids in tow. Not to mention the ever increasing cost of gas.

Yes, some people may opt to go to Coney instead of Kings Island, in part due to the fact that Coney is far cheaper then Kings Island. But I still think a lot of families in the Cincinnati will likely keep their one family visit to Kings Island in 2008.

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Its not the people from Cincinnati that I was focusing on. Its the people in Indy, Columbus, Dayton, Fort Wayne, etc... Many of these areas (which are major parts of the KI market area) do have these other opinions which are providing new attractions and/or, in Columbus' case, a new park and water park. KI can't retain attendance levels of 3 million (give or take) without continuing to draw significantly from many of these other markets. I was just trying to point out that the competition is growing in these markets and all these competitors are adding new rides this year. Add in the potential for a general decrease in amusement park attendance (economy issues) from the locals (slow season pass sales) and you have a challenging year ahead.

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What makes you think they might not go BK or out of business? People are starting to pull money from the entertainment budget to cover the cost of 'red hot inflation' for energy, food, etc... Both CF and SF have admitted season pass sales are not going well (which might give a hint at how 2008 attendance and income may be headed). If you add in CF debt load, with the potential for lower earning, you get a very interesting year(s) coming up for the company. I am not say CF is going to go BK, but I still believe they are going to have to unload a few parks to get some much need future cash.

The housing ATM machine is now gone and it was feeding a lot growth for businesses and industries in the US. The real issue for CF and the rest of theme park industry is going to be, can they capture their share of the shrinking household dollar and how much will that share be?

On a little side note: I think KI is going to have a 'difficult year' since it appears they are not getting any major new attraction, while, HW (new rides and water area), Indiana Beach (new coaster), CP (kids area and coaster), Kennywood (new dark ride) are adding new rides/attractions and the Columbus Zoo is opening up a new water park and ride area.

CP is getting a coaster?????

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