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SIX Q3 Conference Call Nov 10 9am


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  • 2 weeks later...

"Longer season, longer hours"???

Huh...considering GAdv's 08 season and hours were cut from 07!?

I wonder if that means they'll go back to 07 next year??

Also interesting they praised CF on one hand, but also dissed them claiming $20 million coasters are a waste and having their HQ in Sandusky saves them mad jack.

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"Longer season, longer hours"???

Huh...considering GAdv's 08 season and hours were cut from 07!?

I wonder if that means they'll go back to 07 next year??

Also interesting they praised CF on one hand, but also dissed them claiming $20 million coasters are a waste and having their HQ in Sandusky saves them mad jack.

The reference is to NEXT year. From the call:

Mark Shapiro:

...We’re going to put value on steroids. More hours, more days, longer days, longer season, in every park then ever before. I’m not going to get into what our specific advertising creative is going to be but we’re going to be creative on our pricing......

Than ever before...not just going back to 07....than ever before.

Also clear from the call:

A restructuring of the debt is coming soon, one way or another.

Again, Mark:

....We said we intend to clean up the balance sheet once and for all, and we’re exploring all of our options. That’s it.

And then Jeff Speed:

To echo Mark’s comment, we’re really not going to get into any degree of specifics around timing or exactly what we’re thinking. The headline is that it’s the last piece of the turnaround that we have to address and we’re going to address it proactively....

NOTHING negative was said about Cedar Fair...a first in recent memory...

And, with the credit crunch, the company recently withdrew all available funds on its $250 million revolver, to ensure it could make it through this off-season.

Lastly, note the company is anticipating $90 million in capital spending this season...quite a bit more than FUN's $62 million....which is rather amazing. How smart that is on either company's part remains to be seen.

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In a consumer driven business like this one, that would be the least attractive alternative. Even the creditors would not really want it, as this is no market to be selling real estate in. I'd imagine you would see a merger/sale long before that. Probably to a buyer spending a currency other than US Dollars....

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Lastly, note the company is anticipating $90 million in capital spending this season...quite a bit more than FUN's $62 million....which is rather amazing. How smart that is on either company's part remains to be seen.

Don't forget that Kinzel mentioned that the reason why CF was at $62m was because they cancelled the CGA project. They would have been millions higher if they hadn't hit that speed bump.

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Wow. It's beginning to be said in plain English, in widely circulated publications meant for general interest:

....New York-based Six Flags, which owns Six Flags Great Adventure in Jackson, fell on concern the company may not be able to refinance $287.5 million in debt next year, an analyst said.

David Miller, an analyst at Caris & Co., said banks, cautious in their lending, don't have much tolerance for companies operating with a high amount of debt....

http://www.app.com/article/20081116/BUSINESS/811160333/1003

It should be noted that GWL is currently having great difficulty re-negotiating the mortgage, which is maturing the end of this month, on the Mason lodge.

Refinancing debt in this market is nearly impossible for many of the most creditworthy of companies, not to mention amusement companies with high levels of debt, greatly exceeding the break-up value of the company...what with low real estate values and a limited market of buyers.

And before someone asks, SIX owes far more than $287.5 million....that's just what is due next year...and they don't have the cash to pay even that.

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Six is sinking like the Titantic. Down she goes!

I think the best way to make a short term fortune in the Stocks would be to watch the Auto Industry.

IMO, if it looks like the big 3 will get the bailout buy. GM is selling for just under $3!

If it looks like they won't get the bailout (Which it's looking like now), stay away.

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