Here we go again:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796296-six-flags-could-be-potential-bidder-for-cedar-fair-analyst-says

Yikes.  I honestly haven’t take a deep dive on a CF earnings report in a few quarters but this is super worrisome to me on a couple different levels.

First, if CF merges with either Sea World or Six Flags it would create the first theme park mega conglomerate. There are no other models and such an unprecedented move would be an incredible risk, especially because the world just entered it’s third calendar  year of the pandemic.  In 2021 parks suffered WAY too many accidents. Being closed for over a year, national labor shortages, and humans forgetting how to be human out in the world is what I expect contributed to this. And I do not want to see that happen again. Operations at every chain I have read about have had lots of stumbles while learning how to work through the pandemic successfully. Some parks and chains have handled them more gracefully than others. That being said, this isn’t the correct time to try and make a Voltron-esque park chain. 

Secondly, could this possibly be a pumping scheme? Every time these offers are made, each company gets a bump up in their stock/unit price. Kind of like Elon tweeting about DOGECOIN or WallStreetBets memes. 
 

The first scenario is irresponsible. The second option is reprehensible and very illegal.  

Some mergers work out really well (Kroger-Fred Meyer; Trugreen-Chemlawn) and others don't (At&T-Direct TV;  Sears-Kmart).  I see one of the two merger possibilities as a decent fit, the other, I don't.

I think at this moment in time, entering year 3 of a pandemic, I can't see any chain buying another. How would it make good business sense to get that much into debt after the financial struggles since 2020? 

^If you are thinking long term strategy, it would make sense.  If a chain is in a vulnerable position (who knows where any of them are right now) and with low interest rates, it would be a great time to buy.

When FUN bought the Paramount Parks, the economy would end up going into a terrible shape.  But long term, it has been a boom for FUN.  I'm not sure how much of the debt they still carry from that, but any debt that FUN has would go to the new company.  

Seems like a pointless article. Yes, Six Flags is in the same industry and previously tried to acquire CF. So yes they are always a potential predator for CF.  But hey maybe Hershey wants to expand and have 11 more candy-themed parks. Or maybe Herschend wants a merger. Or maybe some chinese company wants to come in.

 

On 2/9/2022 at 7:57 PM, DoomPlague said:

Seems like a pointless article. Yes, Six Flags is in the same industry and previously tried to acquire CF. So yes they are always a potential predator for CF.  But hey maybe Hershey wants to expand and have 11 more candy-themed parks. Or maybe Herschend wants a merger. Or maybe some chinese company wants to come in.

 

Or ViacomCBS wants back in. 
 

I think that’s a real, real possibility. Not necessarily to buy Cedar Fair. SeaWorld would be a good candidate for that. 

4 hours ago, BoddaH1994 said:

Or ViacomCBS wants back in. 

Reminds me of this Simpsons clip: 

 

On 2/11/2022 at 1:34 PM, Gordon Bombay said:

Reminds me of this Simpsons clip: 

 

You worked for Viacom. You honestly think they could get the spinning sign thingy to work on cue?

On 2/14/2022 at 10:41 PM, BoddaH1994 said:

You worked for Viacom. You honestly think they could get the spinning sign thingy to work on cue?

Viacom? Yes, it’d work for most of one season then never be fixed. 
 

CBS? It’d be replaced by an ad for “College Sports TV.”

No one seems to be mentioning the 2nd largest location based entertainment company in the world…which already has a foothold in the US

17 hours ago, Gordon Bombay said:

Viacom? Yes, it’d work for most of one season then never be fixed. 
 

CBS? It’d be replaced by an ad for “College Sports TV.”

You really think it would have made it past media day?

I think Viacom tried several times to get their own Universal Studios style park in Europe to no avail.

8 hours ago, BoddaH1994 said:

You really think it would have made it past media day?

At least a few weeks, but not past May. 

12 hours ago, silver2005 said:

I think Viacom tried several times to get their own Universal Studios style park in Europe to no avail.

It was in China. That was what was ironic. They wanted out of the theme park business because it was mature in the US but simultaneously dropping $3 billion proposals for ground-up parks in China. 

Maybe Six Flags could be preparing itself for divestment.  If it put itself up for sale, FUN and SEAS could pick parks to add (ie  FUN gets Fiesta, SEAS gets Georgia,etc).  Probably not likely, but the earnings reports will be interesting.

6 hours ago, BeeastFarmer said:

Maybe Six Flags could be preparing itself for divestment.  If it put itself up for sale, FUN and SEAS could pick parks to add (ie  FUN gets Fiesta, SEAS gets Georgia,etc).  Probably not likely, but the earnings reports will be interesting.

If FUN and SEAS were to team up, buy the company and split it that would be incredibly unique. It would be one for the history books.

I think SIX will be bought within the next 10 years, but it will be a leveraged buyout by an equity firm. My guess would be Blackstone. 

Or, there is a leveraged buyout and the company splits the company up.

A scenario could unfold like Servicemaster went through:

Company is bought out by private equity.

Private equity sells off smaller pieces that are not profitable or not as profitable (they sold off ARS, Trugreen LandCare etc)

Company is lean and mean.

One division is doing very well (Terminix) and has great growth.  TruGreen Lawncare, for the longest time the biggest unit of the company, faces challlenges and is sold off.

Company decides all other units are a distraction and sells them off, leaving only Terminix.  Company sheds the Servicemaster name as the spun off divisions are now competition and is now just Terminix.