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Six Flags Results Through First Half of 2018 (You’re not going to believe this)


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Sounds like people are tired of FUN and went to SIX:P

It appears that it can be attributed to new parks added to their portfolio and year round operations of a park and a much better job of upselling daily entries into season passes as well as some additional membership tiers and licensing agreements...

What changes will CF make now...

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It is surprising to see Six Flags post such good numbers when compared to Cedar Fair.  I wouldn`t say that Cedar Fair is in dire straights by any means.  They are continuing to bolster their out of park revenue opportunities with added hotels planned for the coming seasons. Six Flags seems to have done a better job, as of late, in expanding their reach so to speak.  Particularly with overseas licensing deals and the increased parks.

One has to wonder what Cedar Fair`s plan for growth is?  Yes, they are adding Winterfest to Kings Dominion this year, but what will they do to continue their growth?  We know they are going to try and leverage California`s Great America in much the same way they have been with Carowinds.  But beyond that and adding hotel properties, how can they continue to expand revenue and growth?  Could they look to adding additional existing parks to their portfolio?  There are not many opportunities out there.  It will be interesting to see how their quarter shapes up, and how the Haunt and Winterfest seasons shape up.

Between the two companies, I much prefer to visit Cedar Fair parks compared to Six Flags.  Six Flags hasn`t exactly been putting in huge, multi-million dollar rides at their parks like they used to.  For example, when was the last time they added a B&M coaster?

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And yet at 9:30am this morning SIX stock was valued at $71.05 and is currently trading at $67.47...

Meanwhile at 9:30am this morning FUN stock was valued at $57.90 and is currently trading at $58.54...

Why is SIX down despite this record first half report and why is FUN up despite its quarterly report...perhaps people recognize why SIX went up (bought revenue and attendance with new parks) and recognize FUN has room to improve with their current offerings...

Just go have FUN...

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On 7/25/2018 at 3:20 PM, disco2000 said:

And yet at 9:30am this morning SIX stock was valued at $71.05 and is currently trading at $67.47...

Meanwhile at 9:30am this morning FUN stock was valued at $57.90 and is currently trading at $58.54...

Why is SIX down despite this record first half report and why is FUN up despite its quarterly report...perhaps people recognize why SIX went up (bought revenue and attendance with new parks) and recognize FUN has room to improve with their current offerings...

Just go have FUN...

The stock prices, as a dollar figure comparison, are not remotely important. It's apples to oranges because SIX has 84~ million shares outstanding and FUN has 56~ million shares outstanding.

Market Cap. = what all the shares would cost based on current share price.

SIX = 5.5 billion

FUN = 3.2 billion

Even that comparison is silly though because it doesn't take into account debt or a million other relevant factors.

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2 hours ago, TheLip2 said:

The stock prices, as a dollar figure comparison, are not remotely important. It's apples to oranges because SIX has 84~ million shares outstanding and FUN has 56~ million shares outstanding.

Market Cap. = what all the shares would cost based on current share price.

SIX = 5.5 billion

FUN = 3.2 billion

Even that comparison is silly though because it doesn't take into account debt or a million other relevant factors.

The actual stock price numbers were not the emphasis of my post.  The emphasis was on the third paragraph was which was why on a day that the SIX report came out reporting record revenue and attendance did they have a decline in their stock price, yet FUN was showing an increase in response to the SIX report despite FUN having a down report in response to the same quarter...

As you pointed out, debt and a million other relevant factors are also considered when investors make purchases.  Emotion is a big one that can result in temporary spikes both low and high as a result of something that makes the news.

As it turns out, the gain for FUN was short lived and both FUN and SIX stocks have been on a decline, albeit a small one, since the reports came out.  Year to date not much better as they are both on the decline, although FUN has a bigger percentage drop since January 1 than SIX does.  And this is despite most analysts predicting in the first quarter 2018 that both chains were setting up for a monster year...so far SIX is trending that way attendance and revenue wise, yet it is not reflected in their stock price - why?  The debt and other relevant factors influencing those purchasing said stock...

 

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You are comparing different time periods, slightly at least.  The Six Flags results are for the full 2nd quarter, while the Cedar Fair numbers are through July 4th weekend.  The 2nd quarter results for Cedar Fair will be announced and there will be an investor conference call on Wednesday.  This discussion is slightly premature, although I doubt we are going to see a huge swing in the numbers.

 

I suspect at least in part Cedar Fair is experiencing an issue with how they divide up money towards new attractions.  The chain has been focusing on the larger parks almost exclusively and mid tier and smaller parks just feel like they are getting ignored.

Six Flags installed something in every park this year, mostly flat rides but at least every single park had a new attraction to market.  Plus the move to 365 day a year operations at Magic Mountain is going to help drive attendance.

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On 7/30/2018 at 5:31 AM, BoddaH1994 said:

Cedar Fair said they’d maintain their dividend. That’s why they didn’t tank.

It is also noteworthy that Cedar Fair LP has units, not shares. It may not make a difference to us, but for tax purposes it very much does.

Yes, it makes a big difference for the unit holders as well regarding taxes. I owned units for about 6 years and never had to pay taxes on the distributions as you normally would as a shareholder because of the depreciation of assets and financial factors that go into being a passive unitholder. 

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