Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks

[robintodd]

6 hours ago, Joshua said:

Last year I had a terrible cough that wouldn't go away for 4 or 5 months. It was awful and that was without flu-like symptoms, such as fever. Anybody who "doesn't care" about getting a respiratory disease has to be eating paint chips. 

 

I hear they like to wash them down with koolaid   My grandson who is 5 was hospitalized with an infection last October.  They ended up saying it was Kawasaki disease.  My wife and I both think he had the covid since children end up showing signs of Kowasaki once infected.  This thing has been around a while, just nobody had figured out how to identify it until November - January timeframe.  He is fine now but sometimes children who get Kawasaki disease end up with life-long lung issues.  Some of which don't become prominent until their mid 40's.  This covid thing is dangerous reguardless of your age.  Be safe.

[King Ding Dong]

Large scale study in South Korea: young children half as likely to spread, 10-19 year olds just as likely to spread as adults.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html
 

Quote

The new study “is very carefully done, it’s systematic and looks at a very large population,” Dr. Jha said. “It’s one of the best studies we’ve had to date on this issue.”

Other experts also praised the scale and rigor of the analysis. South Korean researchers identified 5,706 people who were the first to report Covid-19 symptoms in their households between Jan. 20 and March 27, when schools were closed, and then traced the 59,073 contacts of these “index cases.” They tested all of the household contacts of each patient, regardless of symptoms, but only tested symptomatic contacts outside the household.

 

[gad198]

There's some interesting info in that study.  What that study doesn't clarify is - what are the consequences?  The mortality numbers are more concrete, and we already know from the numbers that this is simply not deadly for younger people.  Per the CDC, here are the total number of deaths thus far in the US in various age groups due to the virus:

• under age 1: 9
• age 1-4: 8
• age 5-14: 14
• age 15-24: 157

So through middle school age a total of 31 children have died.  Add in the high school and college age children and we have a total of 188.  For comparison, in the 2017-2018 seasonal flu season a total of 643 people under the age of 18 died. (Source)  188 out of approximately 80 million under age 18 children.  Think about that for just a moment.

What about schoolteachers?  The median age of a US schoolteacher is 42.  The odds of hospitalization from the virus in that group is just over 1 in 1,000 (Source).  So even if they are infected, the odds of any individual in that group having major consequences is really low.

We can't look at one side - that kids can potentially spread the virus - without looking at the other side; i.e,, what the associated consequences are.  The data shouldn't be scaring people.

[coaster sally]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/disney-updates-facemask-policy-guests-161304898.html

You cant be walking while eating or drinking.

[FreedomPenguin]

Yeah I’m no longer going Anywhere due to stupid face mask and distancing policies on a fabricated number death virus. 

[coaster sally]

1 minute ago, FreedomPenguin said:

Yeah I’m no longer going Anywhere due to stupid face mask and distancing policies on a fabricated number death virus. 

Go to Indiana parks.

[chibul]

On 7/18/2020 at 9:43 AM, FreedomPenguin said:

I guess I simply don’t care about it. I’m open to getting it, whether or not I get antibodies it’s shown that the next tine you get it, the strain will be less strong.

 

so meh. Drink the koolaid

That's not even remotely true.

[chibul]

3 hours ago, FreedomPenguin said:

Yeah I’m no longer going Anywhere due to stupid face mask and distancing policies on a fabricated number death virus. 

Good. Stay home. You can use the extra time to research covid-19 since you appear to know absolutely nothing about it whatsoever.

[NightlyBeast]

On 7/18/2020 at 9:43 AM, FreedomPenguin said:

I guess I simply don’t care about it. I’m open to getting it, whether or not I get antibodies it’s shown that the next tine you get it, the strain will be less strong.

 

so meh. Drink the koolaid

A perfect example of why we're last in fighting this "imaginary" foe. Ask Sweden how well "herd immunity" is working out.... I'm waiting. 

[RollerNut]

4 hours ago, NightlyBeast said:

A perfect example of why we're last in fighting this "imaginary" foe. Ask Sweden how well "herd immunity" is working out.... I'm waiting. 

Sweden has a similar population to North Carolina, herd immunity doesn’t start to kick in until the good majority of the population has the antibodies. With a population of 10 million; 75,000 cases(Sweden) and 99,000 cases(NC) is no where near enough for herd immunity to work. Case numbers would need to be in the millions like 7million per their populations to even begin to work. 

Bending the curve and slowing the virus spread is being down so that our hospitals aren’t overwhelmed with just Covid let alone all the other things they handle on the normal basis  

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/north-carolina/

Dont forget to click on Sweden’s page. 

[shark6495]

I think you all (the people who don’t think it’s a big deal) are missing the point either purposely or on accident. 1: It has a higher death rate than the flu
2: it’s a vascular swelling disease. Which means that if you don’t die then you have a higher risk of organ failures and strokes.

So it’s not just the death rate but also the “we don’t want people to have life long illness because of this”


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[jimlaheyscar]

5 hours ago, NightlyBeast said:

A perfect example of why we're last in fighting this "imaginary" foe. Ask Sweden how well "herd immunity" is working out.... I'm waiting. 

 

[wabashcr]

It's not just science that the "let everyone get it" crowd doesn't understand.  It's basic math.  Right now, the US has 3.8M confirmed cases, and 143k confirmed deaths.  The herd immunity people will say that there are likely a lot more cases that haven't been caught, and they also seem to question how many deaths were actually due to Covid-19.  So let's be charitable and assume 10M cases and 100k deaths.

In order to reach herd immunity, the consensus says you need around 60% of people to have antibodies, either from getting the virus or receiving a vaccine.  Let's assume that having had the virus guarantees immunity (obviously we don't know that to be true).  Assuming we have 10M cases, that would mean only 3% of the population has been infected so far.  If we were to extrapolate the death rate out to 60% infection rate, that would be 2M deaths.  Now, you can say that number is artificially high, because a lot of the older and more vulnerable population has already been infected, and we've gotten better at treating it.  Although most of that would be offset by the increase in the death rate due to our hospital systems being overwhelmed, given the exponentially increasing infection rate (without containment there's no reason to think we won't see upwards of a million new cases a day at some point).   But we're being charitable, right?  So let's cut the number in half.  Without a vaccine, it will take 1M deaths to achieve herd immunity.

In addition to the math, there's the fact that during a pandemic, 60% herd immunity won't actually protect anyone.  When the virus is uncontained, it's going to keep spreading and impacting vulnerable people.  60% isn't a magic ceiling where once we hit it, the virus disappears.  Without containment or a vaccine, it's likely we'll see up to 90% infected.  So now, even by all the conservative estimates and assumptions, we're still looking at 1.5M deaths.  That's the absolute best case scenario if we just "let everyone get it."  And no, this doesn't factor in all the other non-binary results, like people who survive with permanent lung, heart or brain damage.  

I understand we have to balance the spread of the virus with other factors.  I don't think anyone is suggesting we go back under complete lockdown again.  But we know masks and social distancing help slow the spread of this virus.  We don't know the extent to which they help, but we know they help.  At the same time, it doesn't really cost you anything to wear a mask, either.  Until there's a vaccine (which, even if approved by the first of the year, won't be widely available and administered for at least another 6-9 months), our goal should be to slow the spread, so we can ultimately contain the virus.  The alternative is million(s) of people dying, and millions more suffering, most of which could be prevented.  

[FreedomPenguin]

No mask. Ftw

[jsus]

19 minutes ago, FreedomPenguin said:

No mask. Ftw

But the whole point of wearing masks is for the win...  against this virus.  

[Oldschool75]

People seem to forget it’s not black and white, live or die. The In-between also suffer. A lot of people who “survived” COVID-19 are now dealing with life long health issues and disabilities.


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[jsus]

Yup.  We don't really know what it's like to recover from this virus yet - many will surely have lasting health issues for some time, but not all.  Any statistics given for "recoveries" don't seem to take this into account.  Michigan further seems to think that "recovery" means "not dying within 30 days of initial symptoms".  I have no idea how that works, when there are patients hospitalized longer than 30 days.  You could be near death in a hospital on a ventilator and Pure Michigan would consider you a recovery..  until you do pass, then, they'll say "oops" and remove you from the recovery count.  Welp.

Quote

Cumulative Total of Recovered COVID-19 Cases

Cumulative Total of Recovered COVID-19 Cases (as of 07/17/2020): 55,162

Note on recovery: During this response, MDHHS is reviewing vital records statistics to identify any laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases who are 30 days out from their onset of illness to represent recovery status. As the pandemic continues to impact Michigan, this pool will expand to include more cases. Recovered is defined as the number of persons with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis who are alive 30 days post-onset (or referral date if onset is not available).  The number of persons recovered on July 17, 2020 represents COVID-19 confirmed individuals with an onset date on or prior to June 17, 2020. If an individual dies from a COVID-related cause >30 days from onset/referral, they are removed from the number of persons recovered.  These numbers will be updated every Saturday.

Source: Michigan Disease Surveillance System and Vital Records

Source: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173-531113--,00.html

[disco2000]

And people wonder why Ohio is surging...

https://www.fox19.com/2020/07/20/party-coney-island-shut-down-due-large-crowd-lack-social-distancing/

[NightlyBeast]

5 hours ago, jimlaheyscar said:

 

Sorry I don't have a graph to fit your narrative, I have facts. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hopes-fade-for-swedens-herd-immunity-experiment-2020-6

[jimlaheyscar]

Daily deaths are not facts?  You posted an opinion piece.  I posted daily deaths due to Covid.  One seems more factual.  I made no comment on herd immunity or anything else.

 

 

[Gabe]

SIX sent me an online survey over the weekend, asking me to weigh my comfort level with various boo-fest scenarios at their parks this fall. Interestingly, every question asked me to presuppose that by October, there would be widespread access to a COVID vaccine.  Also, the tilt of the questions made me think that, at least for them, boo season is going to consist of rides and outdoor mazes only, with some outdoor scarezones mixed in.  It also seemed to indicate that scareactors would not nec be masked up, but would be separated from the groups walking through by a plexiglass barrier.

[jsus]

October 2021, right..??  A vaccine by this October, <2.5 months away, widely available?  That's quite a stretch.  Having one ready in limited quantities by October 2020 is enough of a stretch.

[Nutterie]

But the whole point of wearing masks is for the win...  against this virus.  

youre not gonna get through to him, hes a lost cause. no matter what evidence you give, he ignore it.

 

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[chibul]

5 hours ago, FreedomPenguin said:

No mask. Ftw

FTL, you mean. For you but more importantly for others. Not that you care.

[Nutterie]

No mask. Ftw

‍

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[robintodd]

Noticed today on Cedar Point's site they are no longer requiring reservations as well.

 

[FreedomPenguin]

14 hours ago, chibul said:

FTL, you mean. For you but more importantly for others. Not that you care.

True. Don’t really. Such a small percent that it’s no different numbers than other flus or illnesses we receive 

[robintodd]

6 minutes ago, FreedomPenguin said:

True. Don’t really. Such a small percent that it’s no different numbers than other flus or illnesses we receive 

Don't know where you learned your math, but 6% is much larger than 0.1%.  Plus, how would you feel if a relative of yours was in either of those percentages. 

https://www.wfla.com/news/by-the-numbers/coronavirus-vs-flu-how-deaths-number-of-cases-compare/

In 2019, the CDC reported that 0.1 percent of people who contracted the flu in the United States died.

So far, more than 6 percent of people with coronavirus cases have died, around 52 times higher than the flu’s death rate.

[King Ding Dong]

If this results in a resignation it could impact the political dynamics of Ohio’s coronavirus response.

https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/breaking-news-fbi-agents-are-at-ohio-house-speaker-larry-householders-farm/JCKHFEK4ZFH5HJF5O4MCP3BY2M/

[jimlaheyscar]

18 minutes ago, robintodd said:

Don't know where you learned your math, but 6% is much larger than 0.1%.  Plus, how would you feel if a relative of yours was in either of those percentages. 

https://www.wfla.com/news/by-the-numbers/coronavirus-vs-flu-how-deaths-number-of-cases-compare/

In 2019, the CDC reported that 0.1 percent of people who contracted the flu in the United States died.

So far, more than 6 percent of people with coronavirus cases have died, around 52 times higher than the flu’s death rate.

 

We don't find every case.  

The actual infected mortality rate is estimated to be around 0.65% from the CDC.  That's probably within +/-0.5% of the true rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html