Outdoor Man

this can go back and forth. I'm more concerned of the 8-12% uptick in cardio vascular disease that will be brought on from shelter in place, lack of mobility, no exercise that comes from just not being out. 640,000 die from cardio vascular disease every year. a 10% increase is an additional 64,000 in that tally. That's my demographic. Disney, Universal, and apparently Six are looking to open on or around June 1. My guess is that Cedar Fair properties won't be too far behind. I, for one, cannot wait to get out and begin to resume some semblance of a routine. Really, I just want a haircut.

I'll reply since I've posted death rate stats. Over the last 6 weeks many people (myself included) have stored an extra pound or two... or three on our frame that otherwise wouldn't have been there had this not come up. I am of the age and demographic that will be staring down the barrel of a spike in cardio vascular disease brought on by these policy moves. Don't get me wrong, I like to get out and live in a place where we can get out and move around... but lets be honest- the weather has been terrible. People have lost jobs and are entering despair, depression, etc... and there has already been an uptick in the suicide rate. close to 650,000 people per year in the US die of Cardio Vascular disease. One of the studies they're not publishing from the CDC is the projected 8-12% rise in cardio vascular disease over the next 18-24 months. That is an annual increase of 52,000-78,000. Again, they're just projections- but it will be substantial either way. I am in that demographic. I don't want to toss around numbers frivolously- but which is the bigger risk? The longer the shelter in place restrictions go on... the more suicide rates will go up. Just the low-end increase projections for Cardio Vascular and Suicide over one year top the current total projections for COVID. These numbers don't even touch unrelated deaths due to the temporary pause in elective surgeries that would otherwise be necessary. This is, unfortunately, the dilemma facing policy makers, and it's not one I would want to make. Not trying to throw darts at the comment- Just giving throwing another opinion into the basket. MOD's, don't delete respectful exchange of ideas. As best I see there's no "ALL CAPS" going on...

A frustrating, yet nice, thing is that the news literally changes every day. Most times- several. I think the antibody tests are the most significant news items to come out. If the results remain consistent with what's happening in California and Chicago (ie- infection rates being 85 times what's reported)- meaning CA would have a total infection tally of 2.5M with total deaths of 1,100. Still a very contagious disease, but that calculation gives a death rate of 0.04%. I look to see what the antibody tests reveal. it's the first set of data that is useful going forward. The infection rate is going to continue going up as more and more testing come online. There was a chart put out by the CDC, dated 4/1, I think when the total deaths numbered 13,130 in the US. Total deaths of everyone in the US under the age of 34 was 129 (or less than 1% of COVID deaths). Add in age 35-44 the total was 3%. Even add in <55 group and it was still 8%. These aren't my numbers, this is the CDC. What does this mean? Everyone from Government to Businesses are still making decisions in the fog with little (but beginning to emerge) data.

Hershey Park (PA) planning to open early June. 2020 Season Passes good through June 29, 2021 (I thought KI would do that). https://www.pennlive.com/entertainment/2020/04/hersheypark-announces-when-they-hope-to-open-for-2020-summer-season-and-news-for-season-pass-holders.html

Wow. That will buy a ton of goodwill for the parks. - little shy on the revenue side though. I would have been happy with a proportional extension and a prorated buy for 2021.

NEVER Mind- it is "through"

so... help me here: "extended into 2021." Leaves some room for interpretation here: is that extended into... as in equivalent to time deducted in 2020- ie- park opens June 1, 2020- so the 2020 Season Pass is good through June 1, 2021? Or is it, season passes are extended "through" 2021?

First, politics is a no-no on the site. Secondly, this is unprecedented in the history of the US and likely the modern world. There is no manual on this. The President can only act on information given and in the absence of data, guess. There is NO evidence that any previous or future administration would handle this differently, better or worse. Dr. Fauci served in the Clinton, Bush, and Obama Adm. He's a smart/intelligent person- and the President and other leaders appear to listen to him (as well as Dr. Birx). So, honestly, don't care what side of the political aisle you sit on- your comment above... (I've deleted several versions of the end of this sentence and will just leave blank).

it is. The projection was between 5-6 million infections. In the end, though, that is up to 36,000+ deaths- mostly of older parent and grandparent age... Let's pray for strong results with the recent treatment options coming out.

I think this one will be different. If multiple waves keep occurring and a vaccine has been showing positive results they may fast track. I'm not medical or in Govt. so is purely my own opinion.

My fear on this is- probably a year after this situation is past tense- that we'll see that the Coronavirus was highly contagious but in the end, deadly, but not as deadly as reported (in the US anyway). I read a journal that states that the virus has been present and growing in the US since mid-December. They report that of the 180,000 cases confirmed in the US- only those with mild-severe symptoms are getting tested and only 20% of them test positive. They state, however, our actual numbers of those infected (currently and recovered) are unknown. "Easily double, without breaking a sweat. Probably more like 4 or 5 times the reported number and deaths early on were simply attributed to the flu or pneumonia before we really knew what was happening." They also estimate that the death toll is probably approx 500 higher because of this. So, my fear is that when all is said and done we look back and have an illness with a calculated mortality rate of <0.5%. using their numbers alone of 4000 deaths divided by 720,000 infections = 0.56% That is to say, we're not going to know completely for probably another 18 months.

I would still stress, we are less than a month into this. Less than 3 weeks ago I was in 4 airports in 2 days and didn't spend much time thinking about it. If that business trip had been a week later I may have reconsidered. Here in the US, we have barely completed one "incubation" cycle and lack data to make decisions on. I work as a consultant/contractor for one of the Orlando resorts and they have told me that they have only made their decisions to what the state of Florida and local authorities have allowed because simply... they don't know. There have been tremendous medical breakthroughs in the past 10 days. Keep in mind, we're really less than 21 into it. The next 10 should bring results from the past 10 days. NOW, that said- these breakthroughs involve treatments. Prevention will continue to be an issue for... who knows. Vaccines are already in development- less than 3 weeks- but it may be months before they are approved.

The news cycle on this changes every day. Just two weeks ago I passed through 4 airports in the span of two days, at which time everyone was mostly clueless about what was going on. Most in leadership were reacting to very, very limited data. The news cycle, and narrative are going to change literally daily. Remember, we're just over 2 weeks into this. The private sector and those 'evil' pharmaceutical companies (that are going to eventually solve the problem) really hadn't ratcheted their efforts up. In 10 days time the chloquine treatment had gone from an unknown to resolving cases in as little as 5 days. We're only a little over 2 weeks in. Social distancing suggestions may remain in effect for a while, but more positive news is coming. The American free market is the best place for innovation in the world. 2 and a half weeks in and the last week has yielded some great, positive developments. I'll revisit my comment on April 10.

this has probably been mentioned before, but I think they need to rename Orion... more hills and valleys, scarier than Haunt, unpredictable swings...

It's going to spike. Not necessarily because there are a ton of "new" cases- though that may be the case- but with all of the testing kits coming online, we're going to discover infections "already" present that weren't accounted for. The whole arc of human history has been marked with chaos: disease, famine, drought, floods, earth quakes, more disease, war, etc... This is our turn to go through it collectively. Looking at the stats and how this has emerged I'm kind of surprised that a certain level of sequester didn't occur during the Swine Flu pandemic a decade ago. I know, it's not apples-to-apples, but it was serious. When all is said and done... and this will be temporary, there is no other place I'd rather live in the "aftermath" than in the US.

Plus, my understanding is this reaches three weeks out. Things can change, but, KI is still, yet, a month out.

it's all good. I meant that as a light jab... on a computer screen it probably came across crass.

"Dude," I was making reference to the "state-side" Disney resorts, not necessarily about EuroDisney- meanwhile acknowledging that the Disney's Asian properties are closed at the moment.

Was just at the "house of Mouse" yesterday and spoke to a number of leadership individuals- not about this, but it did come up. With the international appeal of the resorts, i'm 99.9% certain that the Coronavirus has gone through the CA and FL resorts- though presently no cases have drawn lines through the resorts. All chemicals they use (and have used before corona became more than the name of a beer I don't drink) is a safeguard against that and most viruses. It's why, in the US, parks don't shut down when there is a flu epidemic- despite the fact that parks are mostly petri dishes of germs. That said, most of the concern is for spread to elderly. statistically, 98-99% of those under a certain age may/will get, deal with it for a week'ish and be done with it. BUT- most of us on here have elderly or aging parents. I'm not too terribly concerned... yet.- I was in Orlando yesterday, Raleigh today, Baltimore tonight, then back to Cincinnati- but if it gets a bit worse I'll have a moment of pause so as to not place my parents in harms way because I wasn't concerned... about me. and to the topic. Nothing has likely come from Kings Island yet because we're still a month away from opening day. This will look a ton different (better or worse) in 30 days. It was hardly a conversation 30 days ago. They will probably start preparing to release statements around 4/1.

restore the scar in the back of the park. New, creative, flats.

quick "political'ish" question. Assume for the sake of argument a successful vaccine originates from Israel. Given their odd rash of high-ranking officials coming down with it... does Iran acknowledge Israel long enough to acquire it???? Israel could get it to production quicker, since they aren't under the same guidelines and restrictions as the US developers are. It won't have as much testing... but will come to market quicker. I don't see this becoming a big issue in the US. With the international appeal, my guess is that virus carriers have been all through the US theme park system (in CA and FL) for months. the worldwide tally is 80,000+ infected and 3,000+ deaths. Though we'll never know how many infections were happening in China before it became grossly apparent. If not mistaken 90%+ of the 3,000 (I seem to recall a news article saying that 2,700) were in Wuhan China, which they quarantined and turned a city of 11 million into a giant petri dish. Take Wuhan out and you have less than a 1% mortality rate. Feel free to fact check me on that- but I think those were the numbers. Imagine the mass chaos that would ensue if we reported with bold headlines and breaking news every time someone passed from the flu. Remember the Swine Flu (H1N1) that never was???

This is the KIC faux version of Mike Baxter, Man, writing to you today about that awkward phase all of us experience called, childhood. If you’re a boy of a certain age, you have memories of going to the local K-Mart, Hills, Jamesway, or the Sears Christmas Catalog (Z’ers… look them up) to find a plastic die-cast model car. My favorite was the 1985 Pontiac Fiero (look that one up too). The wheels didn’t operate too well and you couldn’t really play with them- but WOW did they look good from afar on a shelf with other similar toys. But as you aged from single digits and onto teen years you stopped building and figured it was time to start destroying, or in my case- demolition derbies and a random imitation M80 I could find in July. But you never forget the memories of building it with a dad or friends and comparing them with friends. We resonate with images, sounds, and excitement of the past… then for some reason unknown we like to watch their demise. The Sanders Hall implosion on the UC campus was televised all throughout Ohio. The Sands Casino implosion in Las Vegas was literally a tourist attraction (not that I ever went there). A big part of my childhood into adulthood was memories made at Riverfront Stadium watching the Wire-to-Wire Reds. I was there when one batter in, John McSherry collapsed and passed away. Barry Larkin’s 30/30 season. The 1999 season. Ken Griffey Jr.’s first game as a Red. The last game in Sept. 2002 where they lost to the Phil’s… and the next night to see Pete Rose dive into the Riverfront 3rd base for the first time in 15 years. Not to mention to see the remnants of the Big Red Machine gather at the Stadium one last time before it closed. Riverfront Stadium was 1 year younger than Vortex when it closed. In those rickety hollow Arrow tubes held the memories of riding the once tallest and loopiest coaster. Driving past on I-71 during the winter when it was the only thing other than the tower you could see until 1999 (Drop Zone/Tower). As trivial as a coaster can be- I’ll forever recall the sounds of the trains hitting the lift hill. No other coaster sounded like that… the rattle of the steel as it came over the LaRosas in Rivertown. Not to mention once assuring my girlfriend at the time that I had been on it many times before and that she would love it. Problem- I had never been on it- or any other coaster of significance up to that time. Boy, was that an awkward hour afterwards. With that- I can’t help but be somewhat disappointed that Cedar Fair had such a lock-down on The Vortex deconstruction. A common phrase I’ve heard is that with Orion- they want people to be looking to the future rather than the past. The Reds began advertising the implosion of Riverfront Stadium a year before it fell- and it was a tourist and media spectacle giving way to a new Reds era at Great American Ballpark. But it went out in “public” fashion for any/all to see. They have their reasons and it’s their company and their money- they certainly don’t need my opinion. I just disagree. Baxter, out.

I'll say it depends on how soon "next" gets underway. My guess is that strategically they are underway- but visual execution could be an unknown. They've known that Vortex's days were numbered for a while (it was 30+ years old and beyond the average life expectancy of peer coasters)- so they knew that sooner or later they were going to have a vacant ravine. My own opinion, with nothing to base it on, is that closing it in October 2019 was earlier than expected- but maybe by a year, maybe two. If next will be rolled out for 2021 I expect to see a fence this year. If beyond... it may be an open field- though it may depend on the level of debris leftover come opening day. All that said, it will be the largest large piece of empty (prime) real estate that one would walk past in a park. One that I don't expect to be vacant for long. Maybe not 2021- but I'd put a few chips in on 2022.

I think Disney's interest in an operation like Cedar Fair (.... or Six Flags, etc...)- is pretty far left of negative numbers. "IF" Disney was interested at all in the Cedar Fair markets they would rather start from scratch and build to their specs rather than attempt to upgrade CF's mismatched attempts at theming.