disco2000

Wow... needing 11,000 in the park to break even way back then... As it relates to the current covid situation, I wonder what the daily break even count average needs to be today?

Read my post above yours...look at all the information presented in the other thread discussing corona affecting theme parks. If we left everything open, we would have had orders of magnitude more dead. But obviously you must be one of the click-bait, sound-bite educated forming an opinion on mis-information spouted off in February and haven't been reading everything and researching and educating yourself, so I am done trying to fill you in because obviously your mind is made up and cannot be changed...or you are just a troll trying to stir the pot on people's emotions...

I know several that have done that...I am contemplating it myself. My friends that have got off social media are so much more happier than they were before. Regarding China, they are much more regulated than the US... I posted something similar in another thread, but this is certainly relevant here as well as it is relevant to the timing of things. How cities respond to Covid-19 is part science and part history. The history part comes from the Spanish Flu of 1918. It is well documented the differences in responses between Philadelphia and St. Louis, as well as the double-hump that Denver saw after relaxing standards regarding the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918. Back in 1918, Philly held a parade on September 28th, barely 14 days after the first cases were reported in Philly. Look at the jump Philly had by waiting weeks to start the social distancing, compared to St. Louis enacting these same policies within days of their first cases. Philly overall death count was higher too, despite it being a shorter duration. Contrast that to Ohio for COVID-19 that started the shut-down prior to our first case in Ohio...imagine what our numbers would be if Ohio wasn't the first to go these efforts.. Now Denver is an interesting situation as well. They re-opened up a little too early in 1918 and got a re-surge during the first wave of the outbreak. Our current elected officials acknowledge that once re-opening starts, we will start to see an uptick again, so it is a balance of not opening up too early and have re-surge be larger than the initial surge. I would think most companies would rather wait two weeks and be able to re-open and stay open than open two-weeks early and being open a month and then getting shut down for another two months or more... So the question will be, do our states see a new spike that is worse than the first? And history tells us that we will see Covid-19 again this fall and next spring 2021. History also shows the 2nd of the three phases is usually the worse...so the worse is probably yet to come...

Aren't there only like 130 docks or so, and limiting it to Ohio dockholders certainly is an easier controlled environment than an amusement park. And let's hope they didn't announce something too early...DeWine said on Monday he will announce what can start to re-open...and anything that does open has to comply with all the social distancing measures in place.

Great find! And look at the good ole days of 11pm and midnight closings for the regular season...

The question is will you "live it up" in defiance of State Orders or in accordance with State Orders (cross-threading LOL). It is clear many on this forum plan to "live it up" ASAP LOL, but there are a lot that will permanently change what they spend money on too..age demographics probably comes into play as well..

Especially so if KI only allows Ohio residents In all seriousness though, it will be interesting to see which entertainment venues are able to open and stay open. not because of the virus threat, but because spending habits will change. I think many people have used this time to re-evaluate what they have been spending their money on. I know I have and I know my spending habits will be different once "normal" happens. I think I can wait for a movie to hit some streaming service as an example. Some may have realized they really don't watch much TV, even during this stay-home order, and cut the cord. Of course some people will pickup right where they left off, but I do think many will have a change in fun.

Well if they open, all of the out of state folks adamant the park would open this year do get their wish...they just can't attend Now people are starting to realize the concerns brought up throughout this thread about how could a season pass park like KI realistically open up and not tick off pass holders in the process due to having to deal with social distancing...maybe it is better to stay closed and tick everyone off evenly than to have your pass be treated differently because of where you live...and if from a financial standpoint it is also a win, so be it... As you are proving, there are a lot of entitled people out there when it comes to a season pass...and since you have publicly announced you would violate any State Order to attend KI opening day, someone will turn you in, whether it is someone on this forum or Nosy Nancy walking the lot looking for out-of-state plates or someone seeing your FaceBook post bragging that you are at KI..as the sheriff here has said many times - he has plenty of room in his jail for flagrant violators of the Order...

The Florence Aquatic Center is the latest summer swimming attraction deciding not to open this year. This center contains a lazy river, competition pool, zero depth pool that is ADA accessible, two spray grounds, a spiral and speed slides, sunbathing areas, shelters, funbrellas, bathhouse (including family restrooms) and concessions area. Non-resident single memberships are $225 and family memberships are $410. Pass holders can either get a refund or transfer the pass to 2021. They also cancelled their Memorial Day parade. Meanwhile in Florida, similar to Cedar Fair representatives on the Ohio Governor's re-open Task Force, representatives of Disney and Universal are on the Florida Governor's re-open Task Force. A lot of details are still being kept tight, but Universal has strongly hinted that attendance will be capped and it will be a phased reopening for “Florida State residents, then national and then international visitors last.”... If KI follows suit, imagine all the ticked off Kentucky and Indiana pass holders, many of which by mileage would be closer to KI than many Ohio residents...I bet KI staying closed all year is looking better to those outside of Ohio now On a Disney forum, supposedly a Disney employee leaked a re-opening document called Secure Circuit Protocol, indicates Disney would re-open at a greatly reduced capacity capping number of guests and without parades, castle shows, character meet-n-greets, fireworks shows, etc. In addition, rides would be operated at reduced capacity and social distancing enforced and would include health checks of every guest at security and a waiver each guest would have to sign clearing Disney of any liability for potential exposure to coronavirus...

They will still have to wear the face masks though

And I could ask why you didn't catch the sarcasm ....and why you didn't see I agreed with you... In all seriousness though, read my statement again. I assume you are talking about my "so if you are betting your passes for right now, this virus season...you just lost" statement, which was sarcasm because as it stands right now, the death rate is higher for covid than the flu...right now is the key phrase I know you also said when it is all said and done, which is why I followed up in the next paragraph and said you are probably right about the death rate - um I agreed with you...so obviously my math education is at least as high as yours We both agree that regardless of what the death rate turns out to be, this has killed more people in a shorter amount of time than the flu, and may kill more people each year than the flu until a vaccine is found. Death count stats doesn't change (except for when they do because of a lag in the reporting process, but we digress LOL).. However, the death rate you are talking about is the death rate the media will use to report and this is calculated as a percentage of number of deaths in relation to the number of known or assumed infected. Keep in mind there is higher math called statistics, and from a statistical standpoint, the death rate is calculated differently. From a statistical analysis, statisticians will normalize the data so that a comparison can be made over different time periods and populations. This death rate is calculated as number of deaths per 100,000 population. This population number is every person, whether they were infected or not. This is how this virus will be compared to the Spanish Flu for example because the population was a lot different then than now. So from a true statistical standpoint, the death rate when calculated per 100,000 population will probably be higher than the regular flu, at least until a vaccine is available...but you can still keep your passes LOL. To date, the US COVID-19 total deaths stand at 46,771 individuals have died, which is 53 days since our first diagnosed patient. The 2018-2019 flu total deaths stand at 34,200 individuals died. Those total death counts do not change regardless of the death rate, so a virus that is more contagious with a lower death rate can kill more people than a less contagious virus with a higher death rate. Simple math can prove that. I have also repeatedly posted whenever someone tries to use the death rate number as an argument, that regardless of what the death percentage (death rate) turns out to be, the total number of people dead is a number that doesn't change. Real people with real names have died regardless of the death rate. My math education is just fine, and if you paid any attention to my other posts, you would know that. I am fully aware that the death count is a summation of total number of people that died, you know simple addition. Death rate is a percentage that involves addition and division and some multiplication to turn it into a percentage...

But we cannot get caught up on a percentage figure either. Regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths does not change and that will be the driving factor going forward. As you point out, new studies are suggesting that COVID-19 has infected 50-85% of the US population of 330 million, which could equate to a death rate if nobody else dies would be 0.04% - that is well below the flu death percentage. However. that would be 132,000 deaths, which ironically is in the range of the projected COVID-19 death counts made back in March... Last flu season in the US resulted in 34,200 deaths from a total of 35.5 million infected. That means it infected roughly 10% of the population and the death rate was 0.1%. So from a death percentage basis, it may look like the flu is deadlier, but from a total death count, COVID-19 is deadlier...it is the relationship between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when we return to normal. As I mentioned earlier, in just 48 days, COVID-19 has killed more in the US than the flu did for the entire flu season last year (2018-2019)...regardless of what the death percentage turns out to be, this stat doesn't change...

I will try to keep it short for you BeeastFarmer LOL, but it is well documented the cases between those two cities, as well as the double-hump that Denver saw after relaxing standards regarding the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918. Philly had approximately 16,000 deaths associated with the Spanish flu; St. Louis had approximately 1,700 deaths. The parade was September 28th, barely 14 days after the first cases were reported in Philly. Look at the jump Philly had by waiting weeks to start the social distancing, compared to St. Louis enacting these same policies within days of their first cases. Contrast that to Ohio for COVID-19 that started the shut-down prior to our first case in Ohio...imagine what our numbers would be if Ohio wasn't the first to go these efforts.. Now Denver was a little different and re-opened up a little too early in 1918 and got a re-surge during the first wave of the outbreak. The elected officials acknowledge that once re-opening starts, we will start to see an uptick again, so it is a balance of not opening up too early and have re-surge be larger than the initial surge. I would think most companies would rather wait two weeks and be able to re-open and stay open than open two-weeks early and being open a month and then getting shut down for another two months or more...

Are you implying that the media sometimes sensationalizes their reporting

Well with the exception of Solid Rock Church in Ohio, the press has been saying that Kentucky folks have been more likely to violate the order and go to mass And that is the big question - how do any Amusement parks safely open if anywhere in the Country still have self-quarantine orders? If KI opens, many people in a neighboring state or further with stricter stay home Orders will be of your "I'm coming to Kings Island on opening day, social distancing guidelines in my state be darned" mentality. Does KI only allow gold passholders from Ohio in? Do they not allow platinum passes in if KI isn't their home park? What does Carowinds do being in two states? Maybe your statement was being sarcastic, but it is comments like these that will have parks questioning if they risk opening and then becoming the epi-center of a new hotspot and being forced to close again because people traveled to go to KI because the park in their state is closed... I am sure they have been having these types of discussions as part of their re-open strategy...

That is why places like Universal sent out a survey - to find out how long people plan to avoid gatherings after they are allowed to open and under what operating conditions would they feel comfortable attending. It simply becomes a data point for them to consider. If 99% or some percentage they deem is too high says they will stay away for 3 months, that will likely influence their decision on when to re-open. But as has been mentioned earlier in the thread - they will have to limit entry into the park to comply with social distancing requirements. How does the park determine who gets in operating at a reduced capacity - pass holders first, daily admission, or private events? They couldn't do it first come, first serve as no way social distancing would be followed. Think line jumping is an issue now, wait until there is six feet between people...Do they kick people out and revoke their pass for violating social distancing? Do they divide the alphabet into the days and those with a last name A through C are allowed on Mondays, D through F on Tuesday, etc.? What about based on number of miles away from the park - anyone greater than 35 miles will not be admitted? Or only those living in Ohio? However they decide to cap the capacity people will be ticked... and yet, in just 48 days, COVID-19 has killed more in the US than the flu did for the entire flu season last year (2018-2019)...so if you are betting your passes for right now, this virus season...you just lost... And once a vaccine is out like there is for the flu, then yes the death rate may be around the same as the flu annually, or potentially even less if this thing doesn't have mutations and a vaccine can be developed that is good for more than one season like we have for measles...but we are not to that point yet...

And it is your "social distancing guidelines in Kentucky be darned" why Kentucky is yellow on the map - y'all can't follow simple Orders to stay home Do keep in mind Ohio currently has a 14-day self-quarantine if you cross into Ohio from another state...so you will have to go self-isolate in a nearby hotel for 14 days before the opening if that Order is still in effect. And what would KI implement to ensure that their guests are adhering to whatever Orders are in place at the time - do they not allow passholders with an outside-Ohio address? Not let non-Ohio plates in? Provide proof you self-quarantined? So many questions... Because certainly Nosy Neighbor Nancy will be out patrolling the parking lot to send pictures to the Governor of any violations and get the place shut down. Just ask Hobby Lobby how their defiance of the Order worked out for them

Cedar Fair bumped the offering of $875 million in secured notes up to $1Billion. I guess they figured if they were putting their parks up as collateral, might as well go big...

Just for you LOL...a revised map and a few more colors...

It isn't a surprise that Cedar Fair would have a representative on this Task Force and no doubt they have been lobbying behind the scenes as well. In fact, large companies typically have lobbyists on retainer to persuade elected officials on items beneficial to the company they represent. For example, SeaWorld spent $180,000 last year in lobbying efforts. In 2016, they spend almost $1.2 million on lobbying efforts - those familiar with SeaWorld's troubles can figure out why they spent so much that year... One of the reasons why schools in Virginia did not go back to school until after Labor Day was because Kings Dominion lobbyists were successful back in 1986 to convince the elected officials to make that a law, commonly known as the Kings Dominion Law. Kings Dominion didn't do that to be nice to kids LOL, they did it because they persuaded state legislators that to survive, the tourism industry needed late-summer guests visiting theme parks and teenagers available to operate the rides and keep the park clean. Sadly for students, that law was repealed last year after a decade of attempts to get rid of it, but it had a good 33 year run. No doubt CF will be lobbying to open up as soon as possible and before the "we won't make money if we open after this date". Putting the spin of how Cedar Point helps out all the other small businesses in the area is certainly a valid argument deflects the true intent off of Cedar Fair being self-serving in pushing this. And no doubt they will also be concurrently lobbying for bailout assistance if they cannot open up this year. CF will play both sides, just like they (or their designated employees depending on the laws), make donations to all political parties and PACs - gotta be in good graces with whichever person is in office... Now whether the elected officials can be persuaded will be another story...

At the Ohio Governor press conference today, he mentioned that he isn't sure yet what may happen to the fair season, but to assist these organizations, he has waived the requirement that a local fair provide a matching share to get access to state grants so that should fair season not happen or a qualifying fair decides not to hold their event this year, they can still access this state money to pay for some of their fixed costs for this year. He said sporting events, concerts, events with large crowds will not be in Phase 1 due to the problems in dealing with social distancing. He anticipates getting medical type operations back up first such as doctors for annual physicals, dentists, orthodontists, physical therapy, elective type events as they have masks, etc. that were part of many of their practices long before this. He expects companies that can continue remote working to do so. They are still trying to figure out which other businesses could start to open up, but reiterated it will be phases within a phase. Open something up, let it go for a couple weeks and evaluate what happened and go back or move forward depending on the results. They are trying to avoid the scenario where a company or business re-opens and then 3-4 weeks later has to be shut down again. A reporter asked him about kids typical summer events like zoos, pools, amusement parks, summer camps, etc. and he could not provide a definitive update or timeline regarding these. Dr. Acton said she thinks the plateau will have to be convincingly on the downward trend before some of these will open. Dr. Acton indicated that opening anything that would draw people from other states to Ohio is months away or longer before they will even consider allowing those to open. A reporter asked about when could kids go out and play with their friends and people socialize with friends and family and they said that even when Phase 1 starts, that doesn't mean these things can occur without still complying with current social distancing requirements. They said while they are using May 1st as the target to start the re-open process, the reality is they expect that will be pushed back based on lack of testing capability to monitor, so they are trying to figure out how to start slowly to allow controlled facilities to re-open until such time.

Where have you seen Disney plans to re-open June 1st that is not more than 10 days old? Disney hotels and restaurants are not taking reservations until June 1st, but that doesn't mean they will open then...especially if nobody is filling those up... Plus the widely accepted IHME modeling suggests that Florida doesn't start Phase 1 until June 8th... This article that came out today has analysts predicting they will not re-open this year: https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-stock-downgrade-theme-parks-reopen-2021-51587402754 and an article yesterday https://www.piratesandprincesses.net/rumor-disney-planning-for-walt-disney-world-to-remain-closed-for-the-rest-of-2020/ and the majority of WDW forums are not speculating an opening then either... The survey by Universal is simply another tool companies will use to gauge interest in their product - will people come out and when and under what conditions. Universal will then take the information as part of their re-opening strategy and considerations on when they re-open...

If they default on these notes, yes that is a real possibility, pending any renegotiation...but what if say a Disney (or Paramount, or any one entity) purchased all these notes...could be a way to make a little money if they repay or gain parks if they don't... Now whether any one entity can purchase is another story... Plus, the major principal of these notes are due 2025, so how much in capital improvements do you think the parks will spend on until then...

It means they took a loan out against their properties, so if they default on these notes, they lose the parks...these creditors would be first in line to collect debt if they go bankrupt. It is like someone taking out a small business loan that the bank doesn't want to give them, they can put their assets up (like a house) as collateral to make the deal happen. Most of Cedar Fair notes are unsecured, as a lender takes it as a calculated risk that they will be re-paid - and CF pays a larger interest rate for these. For example, this past June, Cedar Fair took out $500 million in unsecured notes, which means they didn't have to put up collateral for this note.

Which is interesting given that the latest IHME modeling (the widely used and "accepted" model) is suggesting that the Kentucky stay-home Order continue until June 8th...