disco2000

At the Ohio Governor press conference today, he mentioned that he isn't sure yet what may happen to the fair season, but to assist these organizations, he has waived the requirement that a local fair provide a matching share to get access to state grants so that should fair season not happen or a qualifying fair decides not to hold their event this year, they can still access this state money to pay for some of their fixed costs for this year. He said sporting events, concerts, events with large crowds will not be in Phase 1 due to the problems in dealing with social distancing. He anticipates getting medical type operations back up first such as doctors for annual physicals, dentists, orthodontists, physical therapy, elective type events as they have masks, etc. that were part of many of their practices long before this. He expects companies that can continue remote working to do so. They are still trying to figure out which other businesses could start to open up, but reiterated it will be phases within a phase. Open something up, let it go for a couple weeks and evaluate what happened and go back or move forward depending on the results. They are trying to avoid the scenario where a company or business re-opens and then 3-4 weeks later has to be shut down again. A reporter asked him about kids typical summer events like zoos, pools, amusement parks, summer camps, etc. and he could not provide a definitive update or timeline regarding these. Dr. Acton said she thinks the plateau will have to be convincingly on the downward trend before some of these will open. Dr. Acton indicated that opening anything that would draw people from other states to Ohio is months away or longer before they will even consider allowing those to open. A reporter asked about when could kids go out and play with their friends and people socialize with friends and family and they said that even when Phase 1 starts, that doesn't mean these things can occur without still complying with current social distancing requirements. They said while they are using May 1st as the target to start the re-open process, the reality is they expect that will be pushed back based on lack of testing capability to monitor, so they are trying to figure out how to start slowly to allow controlled facilities to re-open until such time.

Where have you seen Disney plans to re-open June 1st that is not more than 10 days old? Disney hotels and restaurants are not taking reservations until June 1st, but that doesn't mean they will open then...especially if nobody is filling those up... Plus the widely accepted IHME modeling suggests that Florida doesn't start Phase 1 until June 8th... This article that came out today has analysts predicting they will not re-open this year: https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-stock-downgrade-theme-parks-reopen-2021-51587402754 and an article yesterday https://www.piratesandprincesses.net/rumor-disney-planning-for-walt-disney-world-to-remain-closed-for-the-rest-of-2020/ and the majority of WDW forums are not speculating an opening then either... The survey by Universal is simply another tool companies will use to gauge interest in their product - will people come out and when and under what conditions. Universal will then take the information as part of their re-opening strategy and considerations on when they re-open...

If they default on these notes, yes that is a real possibility, pending any renegotiation...but what if say a Disney (or Paramount, or any one entity) purchased all these notes...could be a way to make a little money if they repay or gain parks if they don't... Now whether any one entity can purchase is another story... Plus, the major principal of these notes are due 2025, so how much in capital improvements do you think the parks will spend on until then...

It means they took a loan out against their properties, so if they default on these notes, they lose the parks...these creditors would be first in line to collect debt if they go bankrupt. It is like someone taking out a small business loan that the bank doesn't want to give them, they can put their assets up (like a house) as collateral to make the deal happen. Most of Cedar Fair notes are unsecured, as a lender takes it as a calculated risk that they will be re-paid - and CF pays a larger interest rate for these. For example, this past June, Cedar Fair took out $500 million in unsecured notes, which means they didn't have to put up collateral for this note.

Which is interesting given that the latest IHME modeling (the widely used and "accepted" model) is suggesting that the Kentucky stay-home Order continue until June 8th...

Keep in mind that was first and foremost a fundraiser and charity event...maybe they combine it as part of media day...or maybe they simply thank you for your charitable donation?...

And everyone needs to remember this

No surprise here, but the Ohio press conference today announced K-12 schools will remain remote learning the remainder of this school year. Too early to determine for the fall, but Governor does believe it will be some blending and he will allow the local school district to decide how best to comply in the fall. Some may be remote, some may have a combination, and some may alter the structure of the school day to comply with social distancing. He expects a lot of flexibility next school year. He also said he does not anticipate day cares opening up with Phase 1, so that knocks KI out as so many seem to use it as such

I would go more along the lines of it is a placeholder for the time being There are portions of KI website that still reference Spirit Song as happening this season... "It is important to remember that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of our communication." Up until last week it also showed a mid-May opening, including Kings Dominion despite a Virginia stay-home Order in effect until June 10th...

Hot off the press today, Cedar Fair this morning just made an offering for $875 million in secured notes. That means they basically put their parks up as collateral in exchange for this money. These notes, once issued, also revises their Credit Facilities agreements with various other lenders to suspend or reduce their debt payments during this time. If you "read between the lines", does this offer a clue as to when they think they may open?... @PatchesC - their shares (units) are taking a nose-dive after this announcement...weren't you waiting for the right time to buy some for your 11-yo just for giggles

It is costing Cedar Fair $25-$35 million per month in fixed costs, which includes operating expenses (utilities, property taxes, some payroll, etc.), capital expenditures and debt facility costs. That's pocket change, I'd find that much in change walking around KI before the meal plans were introduced When and if they open this year, Accounting 101 says that the money IN will have to be greater than money OUT to make money to open. The money OUT is how much it will cost them to operate the parks in seasonal salary, utilities, etc. The money IN is how much they make in daily admission fees, company picnics and associated sales in merch and food. How much IN money does a passholder bring to the equation that has meal and drink plans? How many daily admission and company picnics are gone now, which equates to about 50% of CF annual attendance? How much does it cost to deal with social distancing requirements? Cedar Fair just announced this morning an offering for $875 million in secured notes, which essentially means they put their parks up as collateral. What does that mean...does it offer any clues as to when they think they may open...

It's an optical illusion...and yes @standbyme they should have had different colors LOL. Ohio is week of May 18 in the projection.

Here is a map form of the latest IHME modeling predicting when each state could move to Phase 1: Sorry Kentucky pass holders, no KI for you at the mid-May opening

Exactly! The biggest problem our country will have is one state entering a Phase and its surrounding states haven't. Let's be real, unless someone is blatantly violating one of the Orders (like live streaming a party on FaceBook LOL), or someone reports them, a lot of people are not adhering to the Orders. Do we really think the majority of people that has entered Ohio from another state then followed the self-quarantine for 14 days Order? The biggest threat of a phase being extended or back-tracking will be people traveling across state lines. Does KI prohibit anyone from a neighboring state that is not as far along as Ohio is? Will Nosy Nancy be walking the KI parking lot taking pictures of plates of violators and turn it into the state, resulting in a shut-down of KI? So many questions, not enough answers...

Articles starting to appear noting the importance of why high school sports, and other sporting events were cancelled... https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/highschool/2020/04/18/coronavirus-deaths-followed-indiana-high-school-basketball-sectional/5158644002/

It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to May 1st. Data and information changes everyday and we should expect to see setbacks like other countries are experiencing. The IHME modeling seems to be the most widely accepted and the one mentioned the most at White House briefings, but there are so many model predictions out there that elected officials will look at and use. The latest IHME modeling information that came out after DeWine's last press conference suggests that Ohio should wait until May 18th to start Phase 1. The IHME suggests Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia could open to Phase 1 by May 4; while Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah are among states that would need to wait until late June or early July. We will see what happens now...I would expect Phase 1 to be at least a month before going into Phase 2, if not longer.

I understand your context, I was simply building upon your cardio statement to counter the argument other people are commenting in other forums or news articles statements like "Open up the economy, heart disease kills more than COVID does". That may be a true statement, but heart disease isn't contagious either! You raise a very valid point regarding the CDC study projecting the increased deaths associated with cardiovascular and other ailments as a result of this. It's a data point not many have thought about, so thanks for pointing that out. Personally, I have lost weight throughout this. Part of it is I haven't had any take-out food since March 14th, and I have been in ration mode on my food because apparently people thought grocery stores would close so for the first few weeks I couldn't find anything LOL...still no toilet paper on shelves near me...I am sure I will find that weight and more once KI opens up and I use my meal plan! But you are correct, the dilemma policy makers are in is overwhelming, which is why most President's leave the White House with a lot more grey hair than they went in with!

The thing about statistics is you can make them say whatever you want them to say and be truthful depending on your bias... One cannot simply look at one stat and make an accurate opinion and assessment, but that is what a lot of people, including some media, do to make their point. I try to look up every piece of available information before formulating an opinion. And my opinion may change as new information is found or presented. Here is something interesting to prove my point that you can make stats say whatever you want... @Outdoor Man made a reference above about how COVID-19 deaths pale in comparison to cardiovascular issues. @bjcolglazier made a reference as to the number of COVID-19 deaths are about the same as US automobile fatalities. Well it just so happens that you can take a snapshot and make an argument the other way. Here are the weekly deaths historically for the second week in April: This graphic, taken out of context, dispels all the other reasons people have suggested as well, such as increased suicides, accidents, flu, etc. Is this trend likely to continue for an entire year, probably not, but somebody somewhere will take this graphic and run with it to make their point about how bad COVID-19 is. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying COVID-19 isn't bad, nor I am defending anyone's point of view or opinion on the matter, nor is this directed at anyone, it is simply pointing something out. On the contrary, it shows the importance that we cannot approach this topic (or any controversial topic) in a myopic manner. We have to be thoughtful and educated on topics we are speaking on and be willing to sit back and truly evaluate what value we add to the conversation, if any at all. If our only value on a topic is an emotionally charged post not based on all the facts it is not doing anyone a service, and continues the cycle of bad information being passed around. I believe that some neutrality and trying to see both sides before making an informed opinion on a divisive issue is important and not doing that and being quick to judge or have an ill-informed opinion based on one data point or news article is one of the things wrong with our society today - people get emotionally charged about an issue without knowing all (or in some cases any) of the facts and are quick to pass judgment with no basis other than psychological projection based on their personal upbringing and experiences. They are easy to spot because they have no basis for their feelings other than "because" and that sounds like the old parent response when their child asks why and the parent says "because I said so". I appreciate someone actually providing reasons for their opinions rather than being so emotionally charged that they can't say much more than "because". It gives me another viewpoint and potentially another data point in considering my opinion on the subject...it may change my opinion or it may not, but at least I will understand their viewpoint...

Which new ride had the latest opening date for its first year?

And let’s not get caught up on a percentage either. Regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths does not change and that will be the driving factor going forward. New studies are suggesting that COVID-19 has infected 85% of the US population of 330 million and the corresponding death rate if nobody else dies would be 0.04%. That would be 132,000 deaths, which ironically is in the range of the projected death counts made back in March... Last flu season in the US resulted in 34,200 deaths from a total of 35.5 million infected. That means it infected roughly 10% of the population and the death rate was 0.1%. So from a death percentage basis, it may look like the flu is deadlier, but from a total death count, COVID-19 is deadlier...it is the relationship between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when we return to normal. In just 48 days, COVID-19 has killed more in the US than the flu did for the entire flu season last year (2018-2019)...

Fair enough (no pun intended LOL)...thank you for explaining how you developed your opinion and dismissing it as a gut feel opinion!

@Fishely - where in my post did I compare a fair to Kings Island? I am very well aware of the differences between a fund-raising weekend-only fair and a for-profit publicly traded entity. I was simply adding this here as fairs have rides and a "feel" of an amusement park on a much lower scale, thus it's relevance to this thread... but since you bring food and patrons up as differences, people do have meal and drink plans at KI and their patrons are of all ages, so there are some similarities that you have pointed out! But if we want to get technical on your statements, KI does have volunteers from time to time that are not personally paid, but rather an organization fund-raising (similar to the volunteers at a fair volunteering for that organization)...they are easily identified as their name tags are stickers with their name written on them. One will usually see them at the start and end of the seasons, but may become more common if they open this summer and need workers. At the very least, KI and CP probably will not be able to use their dorms due to social distancing requirements and international workers will probably have travel restrictions preventing them from traveling, so any staff shortcoming can come from volunteers fund-raising for their respective organization. And these organizations will need the help because many of their primary fund-raising functions have or had been cancelled. Replacing older workers with younger workers is age discrimination and is protected by law. The law could change temporarily as a result of COVID, but as it stands now, KI cannot replace an older employee in favor of a younger one.

A long standing west-side tradition dating back to 1860, the Harvest Home Fair and parade in September has been cancelled for 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns...

^ I am surprised more parks haven't done that yet to provide another data point for them to consider as to what the guest may be willing to "give up" for the sake of opening. I think anyone saying they could walk around an amusement park all day with a face mask on hasn't worn one for any period of time. They itch, you get all moist underneath it, nose gets watery, etc. You lose 5-20% of your lung capacity due to essentially breathing most of your exhale so the oxygen level drops each breath. Not like being buried alive as the mask does have some breath-ability to it, but wear one for too long and some people will get light headed - especially outside on a summer day. Imagine how difficult it would be for a worker to work in the summer heat with all the PPE on? They will need more staff just for additional breaks. Masks would be needing to be replaced multiple times a shift due to getting soaked with sweat. Does the park actually kick people out for taking their masks off - would it be enforced more than smoking? How many more staff would be needed to enforce social distancing? If parks implement the rapid testing for everyone - where do they all go waiting for the test results and comply with social distancing? Getting through the front-gate on a busy day is jammed packed now, this would add to it 15-fold. Oh and one option is they would go back to employees refilling drink cups - there is a disaster in the making...I cannot tell you how many of those cups I see go into a bathroom in one hand, and um well, person then leaves the bathroom without washing their hands..one of the main reasons why the parks installed fill your own drink dispensers. Now we will go back to the same employee with gloves on taking someone's nasty germ infested cup to refill it, then go make your Skyline Coney basket....sounds like a yummy recipe for an upset tummy... Still lots of questions the parks need to answer before opening...

Regarding the Stanford comment - when has college theory ever matched reality LOL Most of the experts have previously suggested and agreed that more people have been infected than what the testing to date has shown and that until this antibody test could be developed and random testing conducted, it would be a scientific speculation that was the case, so the article doesn't really bring up anything new other than they are testing the antibody test...and to keep this documentary short LOL, I will not even discuss the reported 15%+ people getting the virus twice so far...as that data point will throw another wrench into the whole works... To calculate the death rate, the COVID-19 trackers divide total deaths by the number of known cases, which shows about 6.4 percent of people infected with the virus have now died worldwide. In Italy, the death rate stands at about 13 percent, and in the United States, around 4.3 percent, according to the latest figures on known cases and deaths. These numbers cited at Covid-19 news conferences relies on a data set that includes mostly people whose symptoms were severe enough to be tested, so the percentages will likely be higher than reality. Antibody testing and random testing will certainly bring to light more data...and data is good. In all likelihood these additional tests will bring the death percentage down, but to what number? In communities that experienced this first, their numbers are starting to trend down - Wuhan's for example has dropped to 1.2%. Many experts believe this death percentage number will be 1% once random and antibody testing is available and conducted. Keep in mind, the infection fatality rate of seasonal flu strains, which kill tens of thousands of Americans each year, is about 0.1 percent. So this thing is still deadly and seems to be more contagious and to have a stronger impact on certain demographics, as you have pointed out before... Since the first reported US death on February 29th, this has already killed more Americans (37,158), than the entire 2018-2019 season of the flu last year (34,200 deaths). So if it is determined to be more contagious than the flu, that means more people become infected by this than the flu and become asymptomatic super-spreaders of the virus, coupled with what may turn out to be a 1% death rate, which would be 10 times deadly than the flu, then we still have social distancing in our future... It is the equation between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when normal happens. However, regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths do not change and that will be a driving factor going forward... Look at the backlash Dr. Oz got by assuming it would be 2%... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-oz-slammed-for-suggesting-it-may-only-cost-us-2-to-3-of-american-lives-to-reopen-schools-2020-04-16