disco2000

Well with the exception of Solid Rock Church in Ohio, the press has been saying that Kentucky folks have been more likely to violate the order and go to mass And that is the big question - how do any Amusement parks safely open if anywhere in the Country still have self-quarantine orders? If KI opens, many people in a neighboring state or further with stricter stay home Orders will be of your "I'm coming to Kings Island on opening day, social distancing guidelines in my state be darned" mentality. Does KI only allow gold passholders from Ohio in? Do they not allow platinum passes in if KI isn't their home park? What does Carowinds do being in two states? Maybe your statement was being sarcastic, but it is comments like these that will have parks questioning if they risk opening and then becoming the epi-center of a new hotspot and being forced to close again because people traveled to go to KI because the park in their state is closed... I am sure they have been having these types of discussions as part of their re-open strategy...

That is why places like Universal sent out a survey - to find out how long people plan to avoid gatherings after they are allowed to open and under what operating conditions would they feel comfortable attending. It simply becomes a data point for them to consider. If 99% or some percentage they deem is too high says they will stay away for 3 months, that will likely influence their decision on when to re-open. But as has been mentioned earlier in the thread - they will have to limit entry into the park to comply with social distancing requirements. How does the park determine who gets in operating at a reduced capacity - pass holders first, daily admission, or private events? They couldn't do it first come, first serve as no way social distancing would be followed. Think line jumping is an issue now, wait until there is six feet between people...Do they kick people out and revoke their pass for violating social distancing? Do they divide the alphabet into the days and those with a last name A through C are allowed on Mondays, D through F on Tuesday, etc.? What about based on number of miles away from the park - anyone greater than 35 miles will not be admitted? Or only those living in Ohio? However they decide to cap the capacity people will be ticked... and yet, in just 48 days, COVID-19 has killed more in the US than the flu did for the entire flu season last year (2018-2019)...so if you are betting your passes for right now, this virus season...you just lost... And once a vaccine is out like there is for the flu, then yes the death rate may be around the same as the flu annually, or potentially even less if this thing doesn't have mutations and a vaccine can be developed that is good for more than one season like we have for measles...but we are not to that point yet...

And it is your "social distancing guidelines in Kentucky be darned" why Kentucky is yellow on the map - y'all can't follow simple Orders to stay home Do keep in mind Ohio currently has a 14-day self-quarantine if you cross into Ohio from another state...so you will have to go self-isolate in a nearby hotel for 14 days before the opening if that Order is still in effect. And what would KI implement to ensure that their guests are adhering to whatever Orders are in place at the time - do they not allow passholders with an outside-Ohio address? Not let non-Ohio plates in? Provide proof you self-quarantined? So many questions... Because certainly Nosy Neighbor Nancy will be out patrolling the parking lot to send pictures to the Governor of any violations and get the place shut down. Just ask Hobby Lobby how their defiance of the Order worked out for them

Cedar Fair bumped the offering of $875 million in secured notes up to $1Billion. I guess they figured if they were putting their parks up as collateral, might as well go big...

Just for you LOL...a revised map and a few more colors...

It isn't a surprise that Cedar Fair would have a representative on this Task Force and no doubt they have been lobbying behind the scenes as well. In fact, large companies typically have lobbyists on retainer to persuade elected officials on items beneficial to the company they represent. For example, SeaWorld spent $180,000 last year in lobbying efforts. In 2016, they spend almost $1.2 million on lobbying efforts - those familiar with SeaWorld's troubles can figure out why they spent so much that year... One of the reasons why schools in Virginia did not go back to school until after Labor Day was because Kings Dominion lobbyists were successful back in 1986 to convince the elected officials to make that a law, commonly known as the Kings Dominion Law. Kings Dominion didn't do that to be nice to kids LOL, they did it because they persuaded state legislators that to survive, the tourism industry needed late-summer guests visiting theme parks and teenagers available to operate the rides and keep the park clean. Sadly for students, that law was repealed last year after a decade of attempts to get rid of it, but it had a good 33 year run. No doubt CF will be lobbying to open up as soon as possible and before the "we won't make money if we open after this date". Putting the spin of how Cedar Point helps out all the other small businesses in the area is certainly a valid argument deflects the true intent off of Cedar Fair being self-serving in pushing this. And no doubt they will also be concurrently lobbying for bailout assistance if they cannot open up this year. CF will play both sides, just like they (or their designated employees depending on the laws), make donations to all political parties and PACs - gotta be in good graces with whichever person is in office... Now whether the elected officials can be persuaded will be another story...

At the Ohio Governor press conference today, he mentioned that he isn't sure yet what may happen to the fair season, but to assist these organizations, he has waived the requirement that a local fair provide a matching share to get access to state grants so that should fair season not happen or a qualifying fair decides not to hold their event this year, they can still access this state money to pay for some of their fixed costs for this year. He said sporting events, concerts, events with large crowds will not be in Phase 1 due to the problems in dealing with social distancing. He anticipates getting medical type operations back up first such as doctors for annual physicals, dentists, orthodontists, physical therapy, elective type events as they have masks, etc. that were part of many of their practices long before this. He expects companies that can continue remote working to do so. They are still trying to figure out which other businesses could start to open up, but reiterated it will be phases within a phase. Open something up, let it go for a couple weeks and evaluate what happened and go back or move forward depending on the results. They are trying to avoid the scenario where a company or business re-opens and then 3-4 weeks later has to be shut down again. A reporter asked him about kids typical summer events like zoos, pools, amusement parks, summer camps, etc. and he could not provide a definitive update or timeline regarding these. Dr. Acton said she thinks the plateau will have to be convincingly on the downward trend before some of these will open. Dr. Acton indicated that opening anything that would draw people from other states to Ohio is months away or longer before they will even consider allowing those to open. A reporter asked about when could kids go out and play with their friends and people socialize with friends and family and they said that even when Phase 1 starts, that doesn't mean these things can occur without still complying with current social distancing requirements. They said while they are using May 1st as the target to start the re-open process, the reality is they expect that will be pushed back based on lack of testing capability to monitor, so they are trying to figure out how to start slowly to allow controlled facilities to re-open until such time.

Where have you seen Disney plans to re-open June 1st that is not more than 10 days old? Disney hotels and restaurants are not taking reservations until June 1st, but that doesn't mean they will open then...especially if nobody is filling those up... Plus the widely accepted IHME modeling suggests that Florida doesn't start Phase 1 until June 8th... This article that came out today has analysts predicting they will not re-open this year: https://www.barrons.com/articles/disney-stock-downgrade-theme-parks-reopen-2021-51587402754 and an article yesterday https://www.piratesandprincesses.net/rumor-disney-planning-for-walt-disney-world-to-remain-closed-for-the-rest-of-2020/ and the majority of WDW forums are not speculating an opening then either... The survey by Universal is simply another tool companies will use to gauge interest in their product - will people come out and when and under what conditions. Universal will then take the information as part of their re-opening strategy and considerations on when they re-open...

If they default on these notes, yes that is a real possibility, pending any renegotiation...but what if say a Disney (or Paramount, or any one entity) purchased all these notes...could be a way to make a little money if they repay or gain parks if they don't... Now whether any one entity can purchase is another story... Plus, the major principal of these notes are due 2025, so how much in capital improvements do you think the parks will spend on until then...

It means they took a loan out against their properties, so if they default on these notes, they lose the parks...these creditors would be first in line to collect debt if they go bankrupt. It is like someone taking out a small business loan that the bank doesn't want to give them, they can put their assets up (like a house) as collateral to make the deal happen. Most of Cedar Fair notes are unsecured, as a lender takes it as a calculated risk that they will be re-paid - and CF pays a larger interest rate for these. For example, this past June, Cedar Fair took out $500 million in unsecured notes, which means they didn't have to put up collateral for this note.

Which is interesting given that the latest IHME modeling (the widely used and "accepted" model) is suggesting that the Kentucky stay-home Order continue until June 8th...

Keep in mind that was first and foremost a fundraiser and charity event...maybe they combine it as part of media day...or maybe they simply thank you for your charitable donation?...

And everyone needs to remember this

No surprise here, but the Ohio press conference today announced K-12 schools will remain remote learning the remainder of this school year. Too early to determine for the fall, but Governor does believe it will be some blending and he will allow the local school district to decide how best to comply in the fall. Some may be remote, some may have a combination, and some may alter the structure of the school day to comply with social distancing. He expects a lot of flexibility next school year. He also said he does not anticipate day cares opening up with Phase 1, so that knocks KI out as so many seem to use it as such

I would go more along the lines of it is a placeholder for the time being There are portions of KI website that still reference Spirit Song as happening this season... "It is important to remember that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of our communication." Up until last week it also showed a mid-May opening, including Kings Dominion despite a Virginia stay-home Order in effect until June 10th...

Hot off the press today, Cedar Fair this morning just made an offering for $875 million in secured notes. That means they basically put their parks up as collateral in exchange for this money. These notes, once issued, also revises their Credit Facilities agreements with various other lenders to suspend or reduce their debt payments during this time. If you "read between the lines", does this offer a clue as to when they think they may open?... @PatchesC - their shares (units) are taking a nose-dive after this announcement...weren't you waiting for the right time to buy some for your 11-yo just for giggles

It is costing Cedar Fair $25-$35 million per month in fixed costs, which includes operating expenses (utilities, property taxes, some payroll, etc.), capital expenditures and debt facility costs. That's pocket change, I'd find that much in change walking around KI before the meal plans were introduced When and if they open this year, Accounting 101 says that the money IN will have to be greater than money OUT to make money to open. The money OUT is how much it will cost them to operate the parks in seasonal salary, utilities, etc. The money IN is how much they make in daily admission fees, company picnics and associated sales in merch and food. How much IN money does a passholder bring to the equation that has meal and drink plans? How many daily admission and company picnics are gone now, which equates to about 50% of CF annual attendance? How much does it cost to deal with social distancing requirements? Cedar Fair just announced this morning an offering for $875 million in secured notes, which essentially means they put their parks up as collateral. What does that mean...does it offer any clues as to when they think they may open...

It's an optical illusion...and yes @standbyme they should have had different colors LOL. Ohio is week of May 18 in the projection.

Here is a map form of the latest IHME modeling predicting when each state could move to Phase 1: Sorry Kentucky pass holders, no KI for you at the mid-May opening

Exactly! The biggest problem our country will have is one state entering a Phase and its surrounding states haven't. Let's be real, unless someone is blatantly violating one of the Orders (like live streaming a party on FaceBook LOL), or someone reports them, a lot of people are not adhering to the Orders. Do we really think the majority of people that has entered Ohio from another state then followed the self-quarantine for 14 days Order? The biggest threat of a phase being extended or back-tracking will be people traveling across state lines. Does KI prohibit anyone from a neighboring state that is not as far along as Ohio is? Will Nosy Nancy be walking the KI parking lot taking pictures of plates of violators and turn it into the state, resulting in a shut-down of KI? So many questions, not enough answers...

Articles starting to appear noting the importance of why high school sports, and other sporting events were cancelled... https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/highschool/2020/04/18/coronavirus-deaths-followed-indiana-high-school-basketball-sectional/5158644002/

It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to May 1st. Data and information changes everyday and we should expect to see setbacks like other countries are experiencing. The IHME modeling seems to be the most widely accepted and the one mentioned the most at White House briefings, but there are so many model predictions out there that elected officials will look at and use. The latest IHME modeling information that came out after DeWine's last press conference suggests that Ohio should wait until May 18th to start Phase 1. The IHME suggests Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia could open to Phase 1 by May 4; while Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah are among states that would need to wait until late June or early July. We will see what happens now...I would expect Phase 1 to be at least a month before going into Phase 2, if not longer.

I understand your context, I was simply building upon your cardio statement to counter the argument other people are commenting in other forums or news articles statements like "Open up the economy, heart disease kills more than COVID does". That may be a true statement, but heart disease isn't contagious either! You raise a very valid point regarding the CDC study projecting the increased deaths associated with cardiovascular and other ailments as a result of this. It's a data point not many have thought about, so thanks for pointing that out. Personally, I have lost weight throughout this. Part of it is I haven't had any take-out food since March 14th, and I have been in ration mode on my food because apparently people thought grocery stores would close so for the first few weeks I couldn't find anything LOL...still no toilet paper on shelves near me...I am sure I will find that weight and more once KI opens up and I use my meal plan! But you are correct, the dilemma policy makers are in is overwhelming, which is why most President's leave the White House with a lot more grey hair than they went in with!

The thing about statistics is you can make them say whatever you want them to say and be truthful depending on your bias... One cannot simply look at one stat and make an accurate opinion and assessment, but that is what a lot of people, including some media, do to make their point. I try to look up every piece of available information before formulating an opinion. And my opinion may change as new information is found or presented. Here is something interesting to prove my point that you can make stats say whatever you want... @Outdoor Man made a reference above about how COVID-19 deaths pale in comparison to cardiovascular issues. @bjcolglazier made a reference as to the number of COVID-19 deaths are about the same as US automobile fatalities. Well it just so happens that you can take a snapshot and make an argument the other way. Here are the weekly deaths historically for the second week in April: This graphic, taken out of context, dispels all the other reasons people have suggested as well, such as increased suicides, accidents, flu, etc. Is this trend likely to continue for an entire year, probably not, but somebody somewhere will take this graphic and run with it to make their point about how bad COVID-19 is. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying COVID-19 isn't bad, nor I am defending anyone's point of view or opinion on the matter, nor is this directed at anyone, it is simply pointing something out. On the contrary, it shows the importance that we cannot approach this topic (or any controversial topic) in a myopic manner. We have to be thoughtful and educated on topics we are speaking on and be willing to sit back and truly evaluate what value we add to the conversation, if any at all. If our only value on a topic is an emotionally charged post not based on all the facts it is not doing anyone a service, and continues the cycle of bad information being passed around. I believe that some neutrality and trying to see both sides before making an informed opinion on a divisive issue is important and not doing that and being quick to judge or have an ill-informed opinion based on one data point or news article is one of the things wrong with our society today - people get emotionally charged about an issue without knowing all (or in some cases any) of the facts and are quick to pass judgment with no basis other than psychological projection based on their personal upbringing and experiences. They are easy to spot because they have no basis for their feelings other than "because" and that sounds like the old parent response when their child asks why and the parent says "because I said so". I appreciate someone actually providing reasons for their opinions rather than being so emotionally charged that they can't say much more than "because". It gives me another viewpoint and potentially another data point in considering my opinion on the subject...it may change my opinion or it may not, but at least I will understand their viewpoint...

Which new ride had the latest opening date for its first year?