Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks

[robintodd]

2 minutes ago, jimlaheyscar said:

We don't find every case.  

The actual mortality rate is estimated to be around 0.65% from the CDC.  That's probably within +/-0.5% of the true rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

OK, so 7X greater than the flu.  Except for this the CDC you referenced are requesting face masks and social distancing.  Two things they have never brought up before in flu seasons.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0714-americans-to-wear-masks.html

[Browntggrr]

5 hours ago, jimlaheyscar said:

We don't find every case.  

The actual infected mortality rate is estimated to be around 0.65% from the CDC.  That's probably within +/-0.5% of the true rate.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Eliminating the "estimating" side of things for COVID:

US mortality rate is 3.7%  (3,761,362 total cases/ 140,157 deaths)  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Worldwide mortality rate is 4.1%

[gad198]

There is no credible source that list infection mortality rates (IFR) that high in the US.  The highest estimate I saw for any individual location was the City of New York - at 1.45% (Source), and we all know how poorly things went there.  Nearly all IFR estimates for COVID in the US are between 0.2% and 1%.

Right now the total COVID cases in the US is just under 4 million.  The US population is around 330 million.  Doesn't it seem strange that only 1% of the US population has contracted the virus given the positive test and antibody numbers that we've seen - 5% to 25% depending on location?  The percentage of people who are symptomatic from the seasonal flu is around 8% annually (Source).  The lowest percentages I've seen for asymptomatic range from 30%-50%, with some estimates as high as 77%.  That puts you at 11%-20% of the US population contracting the seasonal flu each year.

Here's the point - one simply cannot say that COVID is way more contagious than seasonal flu, see that the reported COVID case numbers are 8 times fewer than seasonal flu, and continue to defend that position rationally.  If the virus is as or more contagious than seasonal flu, one must by definition accept that there are more cases out there than have been reported.  We know that cases are being under-counted.  From CDC director Robert Redfield in late June:

Quote

Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections

If there are more cases, then that by definition means that the IFR must go down with it, as the denominator - the number of cases - is much larger.  This the reason why every credible source has an IFR of under 1%, even the CDC as another poster mentioned earlier today.  

[robintodd]

38 minutes ago, gad198 said:

There is no credible source that list infection mortality rates (IFR) that high in the US.  The highest estimate I saw for any individual location was the City of New York - at 1.45% (Source), and we all know how poorly things went there.  Nearly all IFR estimates for COVID in the US are between 0.2% and 1%.

Right now the total COVID cases in the US is just under 4 million.  The US population is around 330 million.  Doesn't it seem strange that only 1% of the US population has contracted the virus given the positive test and antibody numbers that we've seen - 5% to 25% depending on location?  The percentage of people who are symptomatic from the seasonal flu is around 8% annually (Source).  The lowest percentages I've seen for asymptomatic range from 30%-50%, with some estimates as high as 77%.  That puts you at 11%-20% of the US population contracting the seasonal flu each year.

Here's the point - one simply cannot say that COVID is way more contagious than seasonal flu, see that the reported COVID case numbers are 8 times fewer than seasonal flu, and continue to defend that position rationally.  If the virus is as or more contagious than seasonal flu, one must by definition accept that there are more cases out there than have been reported.  We know that cases are being under-counted.  From CDC director Robert Redfield in late June:

If there are more cases, then that by definition means that the IFR must go down with it, as the denominator - the number of cases - is much larger.  This the reason why every credible source has an IFR of under 1%, even the CDC as another poster mentioned earlier today.  

It would be possible the numerator would go up as well.  What about people that have died that showed symptoms but they didn't give a test to??  Also the flu is not as deadly as COVID.  The truth is we just don't know and may never know the actual numbers.  One thing is true, this particular strain did and has become a pandemic.  A title the the "seasonal" flu never received.  You may not believe in the science or the virus, but it does believe in you.  Better safe than sorry, especially when sorry will be the last thing some may feel.  

Our forefathers sacrificed much more through wars, the depression, etc.  I don't think most people today would be able to go through what the greatest generation survived through WWII.  Whenever I think things are tough, I remember I would only have to endure this for a year or 2 as opposed to 5 years.  They stood in a bread line, I stand in line for tools at home depot.  They put on flight suits, I put on a mask. 

[Browntggrr]

1 hour ago, gad198 said:

There is no credible source that list infection mortality rates (IFR) that high in the US.  The highest estimate I saw for any individual location was the City of New York - at 1.45% (Source)

Per your source:

191,392 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases  20,141 deaths= 10.52% mortality rate.

[gad198]

Here's the exact verbiage from that study:

Quote

During March 1-May 16, 2020, 191,392 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were diagnosed and reported and 20,141 confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths occurred among New York City (NYC) residents. We applied a network model-inference system developed to support the City's pandemic response to estimate underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection fatality risk (IFR) for 5 age groups (i.e. <25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and 75+ years) and all ages overall, during March 1-May 16, 2020. We estimated an overall IFR of 1.45% (95% Credible Interval: 1.09-1.87%) in NYC.

What that study is inferring is that there were likely 7 times as many cases in that area than were reported during that time (math: 20,141 deaths divided by .0145 fatality rate = 1,389,034 cases.  Divide 20,141 into 1,389,034 and you get =0.0145, or 1.45%).  Testing figures in that area during the height of the action in that area also bear that out (13.9% infection rate in New York State, 21% with antibodies in New York City - Source).  That area is also the absolute worse-case in the entirety of the US.  For reference, New York and New Jersey together have one-third of the US COVID deaths thus far, more than the next seven states combined.  The point is that there is a close to zero percent chance that the IFR is more than 1.45% across the US.

2 hours ago, robintodd said:

It would be possible the numerator would go up as well.  What about people that have died that showed symptoms but they didn't give a test to??

I'll grant you this.  I'm sure some of the numbers will be adjusted.  But I hardly think it's realistic that the reported number of deaths due to COVID is going to be adjusted upwards by a factor of 1.5, 2 or 3.

2 hours ago, robintodd said:

You may not believe in the science or the virus

I will take exception to this.  Have any statements I've made in this or in any other recent post been misleading or without facts to support?  Most every post I've made in the last couple of weeks on this topic has included some kind of tangible information from credible sources; charts, graphs, information from studies that have been done, etc.  Many other posters have done the same thing to reinforce their statements.  The post I made on Sunday indicated that a total of 188 people aged 24 and younger have died with COVID in the US.  I linked to a CDC chart which clearly shows those numbers in chart 2/2 under "Age and Sex" (Source).  The future of approximately 80-100 million school-age children is being impacted right now because of decisions that are being made against the data and not with it.    

What is the end game here?  The original stated goal was to flatten the curve.  We did that - so well in fact that now hospitals lost $160 billion in revenue from March to June 2020 and are expected to lose over $320 billion through the end of the year (Source).  What is the goal now?

[jensenracing77]

What I never see reported is the fact that less then 1/2 of 1% of the US population has this virus. The others have already gotten over it or never had it yet. 

[Browntggrr]

1 hour ago, gad198 said:

What is the end game here?  The original stated goal was to flatten the curve.  We did that - so well in fact that now hospitals lost $160 billion in revenue from March to June 2020 and are expected to lose over $320 billion through the end of the year (Source).  What is the goal now?

The endgame is some hate to deal with the black & white numbers vs. what is believed to be "likely" and proclaim it as fact.

The curve was previously flattened- when people were taking necessary precautions.  Now that people who believe the numbers are not real stopped caring about those same precautions the curve has increased past the level before flattening the curve was even a thing.

[gad198]

4 hours ago, Browntggrr said:

The curve was previously flattened- when people were taking necessary precautions.  Now that people who believe the numbers are not real stopped caring about those same precautions the curve has increased past the level before flattening the curve was even a thing.

I think we would agree that "flattening the curve" has a definition of "hospitals not being overwhelmed"; i.e., that sick people wouldn't overrun the hospital resulting in some people not being able to get treated.  I want to make sure we quantify this so that we get an accurate picture.  You'll find the link to the data here, which contains information from the CDC about US hospital capacity in three areas for each state (figures through July 14):

1. Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds being occupied right now
2. Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients right now
3. Estimates for the percentage of ICU beds being occupied right now

The state of Ohio is about average overall as far as the states go.  The Ohio percentages are as follows:

1. Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds being occupied right now in Ohio - 55.6%
2. Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients right now - 4.4%
3. Estimates for the percentage of ICU beds being occupied right now - 40.2%

Based on those figures, would anyone reasonably conclude that hospitals are being overwhelmed in Ohio?

Let's take the worst looking state right now, Arizona:

1. Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds being occupied right now - 72.1%
2. Estimates for the percentage of inpatient beds with COVID patients right now - 25.2%
3. Estimates for the percentage of ICU beds being occupied right now - 71.7%

Based on those figures, would anyone reasonably conclude that hospitals are being overwhelmed in Arizona?

[Browntggrr]

3 hours ago, gad198 said:

I think we would agree that "flattening the curve" has a definition of "hospitals not being overwhelmed"

"Flattening the curve" means slowing the spread of covid.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1093_article

Times like this need as many bright spots as possible.  After it was announced that the daily deaths related to covid reached 1000 in the US for the first time since May, the president finally came out to acknowledge cases are increasing and masks do help prevent the spread.  Hopefully those discounting the numbers will start respecting the spread and do what is necessary to again slow it down.

[standbyme]

Everyone is (obviously) free to do what they want...but personally, I wish everyone would just skip talking about COVID stuff unless it DIRECTLY relates to Kings Island.

At this point everyone has made up their mind where they stand and are not going to be swayed no matter what they read. 

I think this is unnecessarily dividing us.

[IndyGuy4KI]

1 hour ago, standbyme said:

Everyone is (obviously) free to do what they want...but personally, I wish everyone would just skip talking about COVID stuff unless it DIRECTLY relates to Kings Island.

At this point everyone has made up their mind where they stand and are not going to be swayed no matter what they read. 

I think this is unnecessarily dividing us.

I agree, lets get back on topic and please stay there! The topic is Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks.

The back and fourth is just beating the dead horse over and over again.

[Nutterie]

2 hours ago, IndyGuy4KI said:

I agree, lets get back on topic and please stay there! The topic is Coronavirus Impacting Theme Parks.

The back and fourth is just beating the dead horse over and over again.

parks are all reopened, not much to talk about there really

[standbyme]

58 minutes ago, Nutterie said:

parks are all reopened, not much to talk about there really

The thread could be about the differences this year...such as the limited hours, the sanitizing, the social distancing...etc...

For example, when I was there, I found shopping different...it varied by each location. 

At the first place I bought something, the associate both handled my merchandise and bagged it.

At the second place, the associate handled my merchandise but had me bag my own.

At the third place, the associate had me place everything on the counter with the barcodes facing up...never touching my merchandise...and then I bagged it.

I thought it was odd that there wasn’t a consistent process.

[Winterfestguy]

1 hour ago, Nutterie said:

parks are all reopened, not much to talk about there really

Not all CF parks have reopened this season - while we have been lucky that both KI and CP reopened with limited hours, other CF parks remained closed (King’s Dominion, Carowinds, Valley Fair, Knott’s Berry, Great Adventure, Michigan Adventure rides (their waterpark is open however).  The virus is still impacting many of the CF chain of theme parks this summer season.

[King Ding Dong]

We could talk about school opening*, that certainly won’t lead to back and forth bickering.  

* actually does directly impact the parks. Lol.

But merchandise bagging protocols will have to suffice I suppose.  
 

 

 

[disco2000]

At Ohio Governor Press Conference:

DeWine just made masks mandatory in Ohio...with lots of exceptions...goes into effect 6pm tomorrow night.

Travel advisory requiring 14 day self quarantine for states with positivity rate exceeding 15%.

Some State fairs were not following guidelines and requirements, so he gave notice to upcoming fairs that they will be enforcing this going forward and will shut a fair down if not complying.

 

EDIT - Indiana governor now issuing face mask requirements starting July 27th indoor as well as outdoor where social distancing cannot occur...with exceptions.  Grades 3 and up will require masks in school.

Edited July 22, 2020 by disco2000
Added Indiana

[Gabe]

Likewise, Gov. Holcomb just issued Indiana's mask mandate, effective 12:01 Monday morning.  Executive Order will be signed tomorrow.  Ages 2-up.  Schools as well in grades 3-12, unless the classroom can be set up so that every desk is 3-6 feet apart.  Some on here have been frequenting Holiday World, due to their lax mask policy.  Effective Monday, masks will be now be required there as well.

[disco2000]

4 hours ago, Nutterie said:

parks are all reopened, not much to talk about there really

This didn't age well  Indiana Governor requirement today directly impacts their already opened parks!

Personally though I think if someone doesn't want to hear about coronavirus, then skip this thread.  For the most part I feel the conversations have been informative and we have seen some members change their opinion on the topic, likely in part to what has been discussed here. 

Are there some discussions that go off the rails too bad with clearly someone either trolling or being unwilling to listen to other viewpoints, sure, but certainly that has been the exception and not the rule on this forum.

Some people have been very good defending their position or opinion with sources and I believe have been informative posts.  I think some of what is being discussed here is better than the media or political spin we are getting from news outlets.

Maybe change the thread title to "Coronavirus related discussion" and let it carry on?

[malem]

1 hour ago, disco2000 said:

Travel advisory requiring 14 day self quarantine for states with positivity rate exceeding 15%.

The advisory recommending a 14 day quarantine currently affects travel from Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arizona, Nevada and Idaho.

While it's only a recommendation at this time, it will certainly impact travel plans to the Ohio parks and for Ohioans wanting to visit open parks in those states.

[IndyGuy4KI]

28 minutes ago, Gabe said:

Likewise, Gov. Holcomb just issued Indiana's mask mandate, effective 12:01 Monday morning.  

Definitely interested in how that will impact Indiana Beach  and Holiday World. I have not taken my children or visited IB again since my wife and I visited with 99% people not in a mask.

[disco2000]

2 sight-seeing boats at Niagara Falls show stark difference between social distancing in US, Canada

[coaster sally]

2 hours ago, IndyGuy4KI said:

Definitely interested in how that will impact Indiana Beach  and Holiday World. I have not taken my children or visited IB again since my wife and I visited with 99% people not in a mask.

Respect you for taking a stand!

[bjcolglazier]

Just want to point out there's been absolutely nothing correlating Indiana Beach, Holiday World, or Kings Island (or Niagra Falls boat rides) being open leading to ANY spike in the virus. Healthy people outside having a good time is not a problem. I believe without a vaccine we're screwed in winter, inside. But right now stay out of the bars, the nursing homes, and get outside.

[bjcolglazier]

Coaster Sally reacted confused. Well, it's true. There's been absolutely nothing correlating Indiana Beach, Holiday World, or Kings Island (or Niagra Falls boat rides) being open leading to ANY spike in the virus. 

[Pagoda Gift Shop]

I don't think Holiday World will have any problem with adjusting to having masks be required.  I cannot say the same for Indiana Beach.

[SOBwasaSOB]

Im going to CP tomorrow, does anyone here know if TTD and Wicked Twister are back open?  I am only asking here because covid was cited as the reason for their closure initially.

[bjcolglazier]

12 minutes ago, Pagoda Gift Shop said:

I don't think Holiday World will have any problem with adjusting to having masks be required.  I cannot say the same for Indiana Beach.

It's such a grey area. You have to wear a mask outside when social distancing cannot be enforced. Well...isn't Kings Island setup to be socially distanced anyway? Which would mean masks wouldn't have to be required? If they're doing it right. Holcomb himself admitted they aren't prosecuting. Which will probably set Sally off, but...until I get data suggesting otherwise I think outdoor parks are safer than going to work indoors. Far safer than going to work indoors. Masks or not. 

The latest CDC guidance says as long as you are not in close contact with an infected person for more than 15 minutes you are unlikely to get it. That is the science. And I would suggest that is the indoor science, but who the hell knows. Still. You're not going to get it randomly walking around any park. Perhaps in an indoor line, but even that is doubtful.

[King Ding Dong]

12 minutes ago, SOBwasaSOB said:

Im going to CP tomorrow, does anyone here know if TTD and Wicked Twister are back open?  I am only asking here because covid was cited as the reason for their closure initially.

Read reports TTD was operating the past couple of days.  Not sure about that yellow thing on the beach.  

[robintodd]

30 minutes ago, SOBwasaSOB said:

Im going to CP tomorrow, does anyone here know if TTD and Wicked Twister are back open?  I am only asking here because covid was cited as the reason for their closure initially.

I think TTD was closed indirectly because of covid.  I'm pretty sure they got new parts for the motor and upgraded it in the off season and simply ran out of time because of having to build plexiglass shields, etc. to prepare for covid around the park.

A new motor would need more testing.  Still haven't heard if this is true but I do remember at the end of last year Tony did say something about a motor upgrade for TTD.  I believe the main reason was to have better uptime.

I do know it has been seen testing this past week. 

I did find this on PointBuzz that was posted today: https://forums.pointbuzz.com/Forums/Topic/ttd-3

Rob was right they transferred the 6th off before operating the ride.

I got two rides yesterday. No change in forces or anything but still a good a ride as ever.

From what I understand most of the launch system was EOL and it was time for overhaul. I saw no rollbacks even during testing so maybe a computer or system adjustment to minimize that as well?