MDMC01 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 hour ago, King Ding Dong said: Still waiting on someone with a mask to give this a try so we know how well masks will work on a coaster. I volunteer as tribute!!! I'm now curious to see how wearing gloves and a mask would work on The Bat! Seriously, it kinda hit me today about facing the realities of different scenarios affecting Kings Island's future operations. I really hope the park opens this year or even for next year, but if something does happen that causes this to be longer than expected, at least NYE 2020 was one heck of a send-off!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Ding Dong Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, MDMC01 said: I volunteer as tribute!!! I'm now curious to see how wearing gloves and a mask would work on The Bat! Seriously, it kinda hit me today about facing the realities of different scenarios affecting Kings Island's future operations. I really hope the park opens this year or even for next year, but if something does happen that causes this to be longer than expected, at least NYE 2020 was one heck of a send-off!!! It probably isn’t a problem on the slower coasters but even 50mph is a lot of turbulence. You could set this up as science fair experiment. Testing at different speeds and if you want to go for gold try to mimic the acceleration profiles of various coasters. Though I would not recommend that on a busy interstate. A motorcycle might actually work best for this. I don’t think there is a helmet law here in OH as I see lots of no helmet cyclists. Come to think of it maybe motorcycle helmets are the key here. Would help keep the masks on and act like as a sneeze guard and discourage you from touching your face. If helmets became the norm, Vortex’s demise might prove to be premature and Rougarou would become more tolerable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 I'll take crying over spilled milk category for $200 Alex... https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohio-dairy-farmers-are-having-to-dump-their-milk-while-some-grocery-stores-limit-purchase-quantities/32040910 ...but seriously, people hoarding like they have been for no reason and now we have double jeopardy happening because stores were forced to ration and now dairy farmers have excess product...and nobody can get any milk in the process...unintended consequences.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RollerNut Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, disco2000 said: I'll take crying over spilled milk category for $200 Alex... https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohio-dairy-farmers-are-having-to-dump-their-milk-while-some-grocery-stores-limit-purchase-quantities/32040910 ...but seriously, people hoarding like they have been for no reason and now we have double jeopardy happening because stores were forced to ration and now dairy farmers have excess product...and nobody can get any milk in the process...unintended consequences.. To be fair, milk has faded out of popularity over the years anyways. I have had problems finding cheese, toilet paper, eggs, grits, tissues, paper towels, deli meats, soup, etc. But the milk racks are still full, I remember when a gallon of milk was $4. I can get that same gallon of Milk for $1.29 right now up from 99 cents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishely Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Edit: http://www.knotts.com/passholder-update 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Ding Dong Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 CF should add milk to the drink plan. Lots of flavors to chose from with a Freestyle machine. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawaiian Coasters 325 Posted April 4, 2020 Author Share Posted April 4, 2020 I don't like milk lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 55 minutes ago, Fishely said: Edit: http://www.knotts.com/passholder-update Quote Additionally, 2020 Regular, Gold and Platinum Season Passes (as well as purchased 2020 Season Pass Add-On Products) will remain valid through the 2021 Season, ending December 31, 2021. For 2020 Passholders participating in our Easy Pay Program, we have automatically suspended monthly billing as of today, April 4, 2020, and will continue to do so while the park is closed. When the park reopens, billing will resume. Passholders will need to be current on payments in order to receive both 2020 and 2021 Season Pass admission and associated benefits. Granted, as Knott's is a year-round park, KI's could likely have different wording for the Easy Pay Program. But it does give us an idea of how it might be handled for us. This is just speculation, of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 I mentioned this in the other thread to this announcement: 30 minutes ago, disco2000 said: They may wait but since Knott's mentions platinum passes, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion this will be chain-wide... ...also this announcement does lay the groundwork to later simply say they will not open this year ... To make the announcement now that passes will be good thru 2021 is a telling indicator of such likelihood... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 I am curious about the Easy Pay Program. It states, "When the park reopens, the billing resumes." But 2021 isn't worded in direct reference to the program. Assuming KI makes a similar statement, if they don't open until 2021, will those Easy Pay plans resume then as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
standbyme Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 If this article is accurate...at least the state of Ohio should be better off economically than most others. (I'm in Illinois...so we're about in the middle.) https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-states-hardest-financially-154119387.html 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Joshua said: I am curious about the Easy Pay Program. It states, "When the park reopens, the billing resumes." But 2021 isn't worded in direct reference to the program. Assuming KI makes a similar statement, if they don't open until 2021, will those Easy Pay plans resume then as well? For platinum passes I would say once a year round park opens the payments will start...I would think that KI passes would start then as well since people are paying monthly on months the park isn't open ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin22 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 I’m guessing it’s partially because our economy isn’t as focused on tourism as some of the other coastal states. Thanks for sharing the graphic @standbyme 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Ding Dong Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 By doing this and not issuing refunds, it locks in a solid customer base for 2021. Some may otherwise choose not to continue being a Passholder for 2021 due to economic or societal forces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimlaheyscar Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 I think it's great all our passes are extended a year. I hope this isn't a sign that 2020 is really in jeopardy as a whole now. I'm still optimistic they get things running mid/late summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 43 minutes ago, jimlaheyscar said: I think it's great all our passes are extended a year. I hope this isn't a sign that 2020 is really in jeopardy as a whole now. I'm still optimistic they get things running mid/late summer. Anything is possible, but a season pass is meant to cover 12 months of revenue and expenses, not 18 months of expenses..to make that announcement now before many of their parks were even originally scheduled to be open is a telling sign as to their thought process that they do not believe they will open this year... This announcement is just one more strong indicator to everything I posted many pages back (page 37) as to why it is unlikely we will see the parks open this year... ...and yes I am aware that they do offer new pass holders essentially 17 months when they purchase a pass in August that gets them in the rest of that year and the following year...that is what is called a loss leader and it is an intentional way to acquire additional funding that quarter and because meal and drink plans for the following year were not valid for the current year under that promotion, CF hoped that these people would then spend for food and other things during the "free part" of that promotion...and they hope that once they purchase a pass, that they become a renewal pass holder in future years... I am glad they followed others leads and have suspended payment plans for the time being to help out everyone trying to pay more pressing bills! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 2 hours ago, disco2000 said: Anything is possible, but a season pass is meant to cover 12 months of revenue and expenses, not 18 months of expenses..to make that announcement now before many of their parks were even originally scheduled to be open is a telling sign as to their thought process that they do not believe they will open this year... This announcement is just one more strong indicator to everything I posted many pages back (page 37) as to why it is unlikely we will see the parks open this year... I don't want to put words in your mouth, but this post almost makes it sound like you think it would be more financially sound for the park to remain closed in 2020, even if they could open. Which I doubt is the case---at least not on most weekends---but I admit I don't have any numbers to know one way or another. Edit: My perspective is that they are already recognizing it might be really hard to sell anyone a 2021 pass. So let's give 'em out and hope the masses fill up the park and open their wallets as best they can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyluvsKI Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 6 hours ago, MDMC01 said: 8 hours ago, King Ding Dong said: Still waiting on someone with a mask to give this a try so we know how well masks will work on a coaster. I volunteer as tribute!!! I'm now curious to see how wearing gloves and a mask would work on The Bat! Masks that tie or have the connectors on the back of head aren’t going to budge if they are well fitting; which they should be otherwise you’re not keeping germs out. I’ve seen many on motorcycles wearing some type of masks. Not just ones for riding motorcycles but medical type. glasses stay on with the holders that tighten around your head so i don’t see wearing masks an issue on rides. I’m game for them less likely to catch a bug in your mouth that way Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 If anyone wants to make a simple cloth mask MUCH more effective, you need some sort of filter in there. And a good hvac filter cut-to-size can do just the trick. http://diyn95.com/index.php/make-it-yourself-the-guide/ It's not going to be perfect, but it's way, way better than just cloth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raggedman07 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Well...its a little late, but the knotts announcement is a reasonable response...let's see how it goes chainwide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 On 4/4/2020 at 7:01 PM, bjcolglazier said: I don't want to put words in your mouth, but this post almost makes it sound like you think it would be more financially sound for the park to remain closed in 2020, even if they could open. Which I doubt is the case---at least not on most weekends---but I admit I don't have any numbers to know one way or another. Edit: My perspective is that they are already recognizing it might be really hard to sell anyone a 2021 pass. So let's give 'em out and hope the masses fill up the park and open their wallets as best they can. I believe that Cedar Fair’s statement issued out of Knott’s today is an indicator as to their mindset. I believe it is truly a “read between the lines” statement. Their statement today severely negatively impacts their 2020 third quarter earnings (more below on that). I find it very telling that before even 70% of their parks were originally scheduled to be open that they made this announcement. Nine of their 13 parks would not have been opened yet this year when they made today’s announcement. That is a huge indicator and red flag. It is also important to remember that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of their communication. I outlined on page 37 of this thread over 25 reasons why I believe the season will be a wash (and statements like Knott’s further add to that ever growing list). My analysis was looking at all data: data from the health and science community; data from others in this industry and what they are doing; data from other business sectors; history – both from the 1918 pandemic and current history from the countries that saw this before the USA; financial considerations; and my own personal experiences. Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company. They live and die by quarterly statements. First quarter for 2020 (Q1) will be slightly down (maybe $10-$15M) from normal as the closure of Knott’s and postponing of Carowinds and Kings Dominion opening were towards the end of the quarter. Historically Q1 is 6% of their revenue. Q2 is when they start to ramp up because parks are starting to open. Q2 typically makes up 30% of their revenue. Suspending payment plans hurts revenue this quarter. Q3 is where they make their money – typically 51% of their revenue comes from this quarter. All parks are open daily during all or most of this quarter. Company outings and daily admissions make up over 50% of their attendance and most of that will be during this quarter. Pre-sales of passes for the following season occur during this quarter and it is strategic why it happens when it does - to help boost earnings for the quarter if weather impacted attendance. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… Q4 they start to drop off again. Q4 is typically 13% of their revenue. This is the quarter where most of Haunt and all of Winterfest falls. They also continue to pre-sell passes for the following year. They make great stocking stuffers. Let’s analyze these quarters for 2020: Q1 - Cedar Fair can nothing about it now – that is already in the record books. In all likelihood Q1 will be down from previous years. Q2 is going to be dictated by all the stay home and social distancing efforts taking place. These keep getting extended. Virginia has already issued it through June 10th, so that impacts Kings Dominion. My post on Page 36 outlines the impact that date has to Kings Dominion IF that stay-at-home and social distancing order isn’t extended. They now suspended payment plans (good for consumer, bad for CF), so Q2 is going to suck from a revenue perspective. Based on current trends of pushing out social distancing, Q2 will end up having zero parks open. In all likelihood Q2 will be down from previous years significantly. Q3 is where they make their money. If stay-at-home and social distancing efforts keep getting extended, it seriously hurts their bottom line. If these Orders last until June 30th and IF the all clear is given for everything, it is unlikely the parks would be in position to open at the start of Q3. It will take weeks to get back operational, get permitted to run, train staff, etc. Shows and other entertainment events will probably not occur. They will not be able to give the experience pass holders are expecting. In all likelihood, business sectors will be open up slowly and evaluated before opening up more. Where do seasonal attractions fall in that lineup? Will people come out or still have fear? Will companies cancel their company outings to parks and will daily gate admissions disappear because people lost their jobs – these make up 50% of their attendance? Cedar Fair is taking all of these into consideration. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes for 2021… Q3 is likely down from previous years. Q4 is 13% of their revenue. Yes, there are costs associated with Haunt and Winterfest, but staffing, training, etc. has mostly been encumbered in previous quarters. The cost to “open up” just for Q4 is not going to provide a return on the investment. So what does this all mean? Taking all the other factors I have mentioned above and on page 37 out of the equation, from just a science/health/biology/virology standpoint, this virus will follow a generally known pattern. The unknowns are the specific durations and peaks, but it will follow a bell curve in some form or fashion and will have at least another wave if not two more before a vaccine is available. Our country makes up 4.25% of the population, yet we have 26% of the known cases. That is an outrageous difference. Other countries have responded better than we have so it will likely take longer for us to recover (see pages 28 and 41 for more details). The peak keeps getting shifted, which is good as it should mean healthcare is available (which we have seen in some areas it is not), and it is also bad as this new normal gets extended and more and more people lose their jobs. But at some point we will hit that peak, and then all the measures taken will hold that peak at a fairly constant level for a certain period of time (current projections are one to two months before it starts going down). So the latest model shows we peak in early to mid June and hold steady and then starts the decline at the end of July. And then of course we will then start to see restrictions slowly removed and reevaluated and either more open or we close again. Early history from countries starting to re-open is they had to go back to restrictive measures. Cedar Fair is a business first and foremost and a publicly traded company at that. If we do not see the decline of the bell curve until July, then the next question is at what point on the curve are we given the all clear? That could be a month or more before we start seeing a gradual opening up of businesses. At this point the parks will essentially lose all of Q3 as well. At that point, if the expenses to open and operate for the rest of the year are less than the revenue generated, it does not make sense financially to do so. Based on everything I have seen and analyzed and posted in previous posts, that is why I believe from a health perspective we will not see parks re-open this year. As the NFL chief medical doctor said "As long as we're still in a place where when a single individual tests positive for the virus that you have to quarantine every single person who was in contact with them in any shape, form or fashion, then I don't think you can begin to think about reopening." Now that was for football, but the same statement can apply to amusement parks. Opening and closing a park is a huge financial burden. No park wants to have a case traced back to them. Certainly Cedar Fair has certainly analyzed that same data and all their internal data and discussions with investors and others and made projections and decisions that led to the statement issued today. They absolutely destroyed their 2020 Q3 earnings with today’s announcement and put a dent in 2020 Q2 earnings as well by suspending payment plans. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… If the projections are that only 10 percent (or whatever percent they decide) would be daily admissions or company outings if they open after a certain date and thus would have no new real revenue as everyone going would be pass holders with meal and drink plans, financially at some point it makes sense to not open… If they stay closed all year, it just so happens that this decision will make sense from a financial standpoint as well…take the charge and move on... Being a publicly traded company, they will find a way to take a charge on this for filing purposes and have it minimize their financials the best they can. I have worked at publicly traded companies. I have seen business decisions made based on what it would do to a quarterly earnings and take the charge (loss) that quarter or year or kick it to the next quarter/year depending on projections and earnings. Sometimes the decisions defy what one would think is common sense, but you have to look at all the factors and make a decision. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. For all we know this could simply be a moral obligation/decision as well – suspend payment plans to help those that need that money now for other more pressing things, but that decision comes at the cost of the park now not being able to open this year if the all-clear is given due to that delayed revenue stream…Of course they could never say that because too many would slam them for taking away their opportunity to ride Orion because people couldn't keep up with their payment plan and who knows what other horrible statements people would post to FaceBook... Now all of this changes in a moment if some existing drug that is readily available is found to be a cure or vaccine or elected officials ignore science and their medical professionals and decide to say "Screw it" and re-open up the economy... Short of that, based on history, we could see this in some form or fashion be our current normal for up to the next 18 months... TL:DR – today’s Knott’s announcement to suspend payment plans and make all passes are good thru 2021 has significantly hurt their revenue stream for the second quarter (payment plans was their only revenue at the moment) and absolutely destroys 2020 third quarter as nobody will be renewing passes for 2021, leading to a likelihood that they believe 2020 cannot be salvaged and will not open this year. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, disco2000 said: I believe that Cedar Fair’s statement issued out of Knott’s today is an indicator as to their mindset. Literally, you could have stopped there. :-) 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said: Literally, you could have stopped there. :-) I like to be thorough and detailed with explanations to back my reasoning and show it isn't just a gut feel like a lot of the "the park will open in mid-May" comments....and to keep King Ding Dong from asking for reasons why as he does to the "the park will open in mid-May" posters LOL... If you would like more details, I have them... that is my executive summary LOL... I mean Kings Dominion is opening mid-May - their website says so, despite their Governor's order thru June 10th issued earlier this week... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 13 hours ago, jensenracing77 said: Only recommendations, not that you have to. Wearing a mask in public is to protect others and not necessarily yourself No, that's just an excuse. Wearing a mask protects you and others. The only reason the government said not to wear masks is because the nation had a shortage before and needed to provide masks to hospital workers and first responders first to protect them. Now that the Chinese are pumping out a surplus of masks the CDC now recommends it because we have enough supply for the public to buy them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjcolglazier Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 1 minute ago, disco2000 said: I like to be thorough and detailed with explanations to back my reasoning and show it isn't just a gut feel like a lot of the "the park will open in mid-May" comments....and to keep King Ding Dong from asking for reasons why as he does to the "the park will open in mid-May" posters LOL... If you would like more details, I have them... that is my executive summary LOL... LOL! No, it's all good. I still think the park is "likely" to open this year. I can certainly imagine it will not, and understand the reasons why, if so. And I am certainly not trying to spout my opinion as gospel! This is like nothing we've ever seen...even the doctors don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, Dan said: No, that's just an excuse. Wearing a mask protects you and others. The only reason the government said not to wear masks is because the nation had a shortage before and needed to provide masks to hospital workers and first responders first to protect them. Now that the Chinese are pumping out a surplus of masks the CDC now recommends it because we have enough supply for the public to buy them. And this is why we had a shortage...this didn't raise any red flags?...nope it was going to make their Q1 look outstanding... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/02/us-exports-masks-ppe-china-surged-early-phase-coronavirus/5109747002/ Are you able to find masks - every story I have seen and discussions with medical professionals and my own looking indicates nobody has them available for purchase? My nurse friends are having to go without or spray with lysol and re-use everyday? 11 minutes ago, bjcolglazier said: LOL! No, it's all good. I still think the park is "likely" to open this year. I can certainly imagine it will not, and understand the reasons why, if so. And I am certainly not trying to spout my opinion as gospel! This is like nothing we've ever seen...even the doctors don't know. I agree with you. I am trying to manage expectations that they will not open and if they do, then be pleasantly surprised! I just hope they open for the right reasons and safe reasons and not because the government gets antsy and it results in overwhelmed hospitals and decisions having to be made like not to treat people over age 70 and those with underlying health conditions like other countries are having to do..we have already gone down this path and the economic damage is done (yeah there is still room to bottom out) and to reverse now, one would have to question if we would have been better off to just let it run it's course and overwhelm hospitals and have way more deaths but it may be done already? I would not want to be responsible for that decision! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WOF Guy Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 There is a difference between revenue and cash flow. CF does not recognize all proceeds of a season pass in the quarter it was sold. The price of the pass is divided against the forecasted number of visits, to equal an approximate price-per-visit. Each time a season pass is scanned, a portion of the purchase-price is recognized as revenue. If I use my pass in March, June, September and November, the money I spent on the pass will be reported as revenue spread across all 4 quarters. Cedar Fair is essentially deferring season pass revenue from 2020 to 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
standbyme Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 5 hours ago, disco2000 said: "the park will open in mid-May" Just practicing my selective quote journalism skills in case I need to go looking for a temporary job in the future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco2000 Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 2 hours ago, standbyme said: Just practicing my selective quote journalism skills in case I need to go looking for a temporary job in the future. If this isn't a cross-threading reference lol, I have had this very thing happen to me.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coaster sally Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Well football is up in the air for August/September. Next week Cedar Fair brass should send a email stating that passes and add ons are good through 2021 just like Knotts so we can get on with our lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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