Kings Island and Cedar Point opening Mid-May

[rhyano]

I don't see Kings Island or Cedar Point being ready in time by mid-May because of the stay at home order until May 1st, I see a Memorial Day weekend opening as it is right now.

[Hawaiian Coasters 325]

4 minutes ago, rhyano said:

I don't see Kings Island or Cedar Point being ready in time by mid-May because of the stay at home order until May 1st, I see a Memorial Day weekend opening as it is right now.

Yeah I don't either. That is only if the stay at home order expires May 1st which is pretty unlikely at this point. 

[disco2000]

18 minutes ago, rhyano said:

I don't see Kings Island or Cedar Point being ready in time by mid-May because of the stay at home order until May 1st, I see a Memorial Day weekend opening as it is right now.

It's a moving target, but all indicators keep pushing it later and we need to manage our expectations and not expect an opening anytime soon (for more indicators see my book post in the other thread LOL)...

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/cleveland-clinic-ceo-coronavirus-peak-in-ohio-expected-between-mid-may-and-mid-june/

[FUN&ONLY!]

I don’t know if this has already been talked about, but Grand Carnivale is scheduled for June 6-28 if the park opens by then.

https://www.visitkingsisland.com/play/events/grand-carnivale

[Thabto]

I think that was put on by an outside company. It would not only depend if the park opens by then, but if the company is back up and running by then. And the odds of those are probably on the lower end.

[MDMC01]

On 4/3/2020 at 4:08 PM, IndyGuy4KI said:

We have had a lot colder opening days in the past.

Yes, I remember one Opening Day in particular (2018, I think, because Firehawk was still around) where all three of the Arrows didn't run as it was too cold.

EDIT: Speaking of Firehawk, look how red the newly painted track was its opening year: https://rcdb.com/3793.htm#p=19045

[McSalsa]

1 hour ago, MDMC01 said:

Yes, I remember one Opening Day in particular (2018, I think, because Firehawk was still around) where all three of the Arrows didn't run as it was too cold.

EDIT: Speaking of Firehawk, look how red the newly painted track was its opening year: https://rcdb.com/3793.htm#p=19045

That was last year- I was there. It did not help that Cedar Fair had just updated their policy on Arrow coasters needing to reach 50 degrees to open, versus 45 in years before that. It also rained a decent amount on passholder preview and a bit more on Opening Day (though Opening Day was not as bad). Because of the "bad" weather though crowds were very light for opening day standards and many rides were under 10 minutes, save the new Kings Mills Antique Autos and The Beast when the 40th Anniversary T-Shirts were being given out.

2018 was warm (70s), sunny, and crowded. I was there for PP 2018 too- my sister didn't even fill me in that we were going until we were halfway to the park!

[Shawn Meyer]

So Is there still a chance employees could start being trained in mid-May and open in June?

[Hawaiian Coasters 325]

8 minutes ago, Shawn Meyer said:

So Is there still a chance employees could start being trained in mid-May and open in June?

There is definitely a chance of that. In fact, I think there is a chance actual training takes place a little earlier, but in small groups and following guidelines. 

[IceePirate]

1 minute ago, Hawaiian Coasters 325 said:

There is definitely a chance of that. In fact, I think there is a chance actual training takes place a little earlier, but in small groups and following guidelines. 

Kings Island isn't an essential business, so they can't begin training until the stay at home order is lifted either may 1st, or if Ohio pushed it back again. After that happens though, it should only take them roughly 2 weeks to get everything up and running, since they did a lot of legwork before the order was issued, and I think maintinence is still working.

[Shawn Meyer]

^^

Edited April 9, 2020 by Shawn Meyer

[ApocalypticTragedy]

So, I just visited KI's website, it looks as tho we might not get a mid-May opening now.

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[Klabergian Empire]

^^^ Good news is that Grand Carnivale is still scheduled to start on June 6th.

[collin.klopfstein]

1 hour ago, ApocalypticTragedy said:

So, I just visited KI's website, it looks as tho we might not get a mid-May opening now.

Sent from my LM-X220PM using Tapatalk
 

Why do you say that?

[Captain Obvious]

A place like KI is going to open up as soon as the state says its ok. Question is when because I bet its after the bars are allowed to open.

[collin.klopfstein]

Mike dewine said he plans on Ohio starting phase 1 on opening back up may 1st

[PatchesC]

This is a projection I see alot of people referencing for when things may trend downward and opening things up. Definitely not the definitive but crazy the differences from state to state.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/ohio

Even if phase 1 happens May 1st, it's recommended 2 weeks without an increase in cases, if no increase in cases KI could possibly open once in Phase 2 (large venues, bars, can resume with moderate social distancing) would it be feasible enough to protect employees? It would take phase 3 to meet get unrestricted staffing though. 

[disco2000]

1 hour ago, collin.klopfstein said:

Mike dewine said he plans on Ohio starting phase 1 on opening back up may 1st

It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to May 1st.  Data and information changes everyday and we should expect to see setbacks like other countries are experiencing. 

The IHME modeling seems to be the most widely accepted and the one mentioned the most at White House briefings, but there are so many model predictions out there that elected officials will look at and use.

The latest IHME modeling information that came out after DeWine's last press conference suggests that Ohio should wait until May 18th to start Phase 1.

The IHME suggests Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia could open to Phase 1 by May 4; while Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah are among states that would need to wait until late June or early July.  We will see what happens now...I would expect Phase 1 to be at least a month before going into Phase 2, if not longer.

 

 

[PatchesC]

2 hours ago, disco2000 said:

It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to May 1st.  Data and information changes everyday and we should expect to see setbacks like other countries are experiencing. 

The IHME modeling seems to be the most widely accepted and the one mentioned the most at White House briefings, but there are so many model predictions out there that elected officials will look at and use.

The latest IHME modeling information that came out after DeWine's last press conference suggests that Ohio should wait until May 18th to start Phase 1.

The IHME suggests Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia could open to Phase 1 by May 4; while Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah are among states that would need to wait until late June or early July.  We will see what happens now...I would expect Phase 1 to be at least a month before going into Phase 2, if not longer.

 

 

It will definitely be interesting, more so if they take Indiana with May 25th and Kentucky with June 8th projections to implement Phase 1 into account. 

[disco2000]

37 minutes ago, PatchesC said:

It will definitely be interesting, more so if they take Indiana with May 25th and Kentucky with June 8th projections to implement Phase 1 into account. 

Exactly!

The biggest problem our country will have is one state entering a Phase and its surrounding states haven't.

Let's be real, unless someone is blatantly violating one of the Orders (like live streaming a party on FaceBook LOL), or someone reports them, a lot of people are not adhering to the Orders.  Do we really think the majority of people that has entered Ohio from another state then followed the self-quarantine for 14 days Order?

The biggest threat of a phase being extended or back-tracking will be people traveling across state lines.

Does KI prohibit anyone from a neighboring state that is not as far along as Ohio is?  Will Nosy Nancy be walking the KI parking lot taking pictures of plates of violators and turn it into the state, resulting in a shut-down of KI?

So many questions, not enough answers...

[PatchesC]

51 minutes ago, disco2000 said:

Exactly!

The biggest problem our country will have is one state entering a Phase and its surrounding states haven't.

Let's be real, unless someone is blatantly violating one of the Orders (like live streaming a party on FaceBook LOL), or someone reports them, a lot of people are not adhering to the Orders.  Do we really think the majority of people that has entered Ohio from another state then followed the self-quarantine for 14 days Order?

The biggest threat of a phase being extended or back-tracking will be people traveling across state lines.

Does KI prohibit anyone from a neighboring state that is not as far along as Ohio is?  Will Nosy Nancy be walking the KI parking lot taking pictures of plates of violators and turn it into the state, resulting in a shut-down of KI?

So many questions, not enough answers...

I wasn't even aware of Ohio's 14 day quarantine requirement, but heard of other states (I live in Indiana). KI would be smart to put a notice of the order up IF they chose to open. But it would also require Indiana to go to a phase 2 before I could travel anyway.

[disco2000]

Here is a map form of the latest IHME modeling predicting when each state could move to Phase 1:

Sorry Kentucky pass holders, no KI for you at the mid-May opening

[Shawn Meyer]

Let's say the park doesn't open till July or August. Would that put Cedar Fair in the negative? I don't want to see Cedar Fair go bankrupt or go into debt. 

[IceePirate]

8 hours ago, Shawn Meyer said:

Let's say the park doesn't open till July or August. Would that put Cedar Fair in the negative? I don't want to see Cedar Fair go bankrupt or go into debt. 

That's not going to happen. Cedar Fair gives out tons of cash in a dividend they just temporarily stopped. Worst case is new projects will be temporarily stopped until the park begins making a substantial amount of revenue again. I do imagine that the revenue will uptick when the park announces an opening date due to the extended time add-ons like 1.5 year Fast Lane or meal plan. I am pretty surprised that KI isn't putting an online store up for most/all of their merch as that would be a good way to supplement sales during this time. Worst case is that they issue some long-term bonds and will reduce capital improvements for the next couple years.

[tuxedoman52]

With no seasonal staff to pay or operating costs, you can't imagine Cedar Fair is taking that big of a hit by not opening. They're only delaying when they make their profits. Now, if attendance is significantly down when and if the parks do open, then that will be an issue. Also, you have to consider the fact that they lost a majority of their season pass revenue for 2021, assuming most people renew their pass every year.

[Klabergian Empire]

10 hours ago, disco2000 said:

Here is a map form of the latest IHME modeling predicting when each state could move to Phase 1:

Sorry Kentucky pass holders, no KI for you at the mid-May opening

If I am reading this right, this map says we should move to Phase 1 the week of May 11.

[standbyme]

10 hours ago, disco2000 said:

Here is a map form of the latest IHME modeling predicting when each state could move to Phase 1:

What? Did the person who designed this map run out of all the other colors?! 

(It would be much faster to read with other colors instead of slight varying shades of green.)

[disco2000]

4 minutes ago, Klabergian Empire said:

If I am reading this right, this map says we should move to Phase 1 the week of May 11.

It's an optical illusion...and yes @standbyme they should have had different colors LOL.

Ohio is week of May 18 in the projection.

[disco2000]

1 hour ago, tuxedoman52 said:

With no seasonal staff to pay or operating costs, you can't imagine Cedar Fair is taking that big of a hit by not opening. They're only delaying when they make their profits. Now, if attendance is significantly down when and if the parks do open, then that will be an issue. Also, you have to consider the fact that they lost a majority of their season pass revenue for 2021, assuming most people renew their pass every year.

It is costing Cedar Fair $25-$35 million per month in fixed costs, which includes operating expenses (utilities, property taxes, some payroll, etc.), capital expenditures and debt facility costs.  That's pocket change, I'd find that much in change walking around KI before the meal plans were introduced

When and if they open this year, Accounting 101 says that the money IN will have to be greater than money OUT to make money to open.  The money OUT is how much it will cost them to operate the parks in seasonal salary, utilities, etc.  The money IN is how much they make in daily admission fees, company picnics and associated sales in merch and food.  How much IN money does a passholder bring to the equation that has meal and drink plans?  How many daily admission and company picnics are gone now, which equates to about 50% of CF annual attendance?  How much does it cost to deal with social distancing requirements?

Cedar Fair just announced this morning an offering for $875 million in secured notes, which essentially means they put their parks up as collateral.  What does that mean...does it offer any clues as to when they think they may open...

[IceePirate]

36 minutes ago, disco2000 said:

It is costing Cedar Fair $25-$35 million per month in fixed costs, which includes operating expenses (utilities, property taxes, some payroll, etc.), capital expenditures and debt facility costs.  That's pocket change, I'd find that much in change walking around KI before the meal plans were introduced

When and if they open this year, Accounting 101 says that the money IN will have to be greater than money OUT to make money to open.  The money OUT is how much it will cost them to operate the parks in seasonal salary, utilities, etc.  The money IN is how much they make in daily admission fees, company picnics and associated sales in merch and food.  How much IN money does a passholder bring to the equation that has meal and drink plans?  How many daily admission and company picnics are gone now, which equates to about 50% of CF annual attendance?  How much does it cost to deal with social distancing requirements?

Cedar Fair just announced this morning an offering for $875 million in secured notes, which essentially means they put their parks up as collateral.  What does that mean...does it offer any clues as to when they think they may open...

The determination on whether the parks will open or not comes down to if the operations team believes that a park believes that their marginal revenue will be greater than the marginal cost that it would take to open the park versus keep it closed. Due to a park the size of Kings Island for example, you have quite a lot of fixed costs that get added on to the fixed costs they already have when they open. In order to open, the park needs to have a minimum amount of spend on things like food & bev, additional staffing, electricity and other utilities. These types of costs are both fixed and variable as while they need to purchase some food & bev to open the park, the amount they need is small and can be scaled up when the park expects bigger crowds turning it more into a variable cost than a fixed cost. Going to fundamentals of economics, in order for a business to open their doors, marginal revenue needs to be equal to or greater than the marginal cost for opening. 

The above part was more referencing other confusion I saw here, but I do know Cedar Fair has an average per cap spending number for each park which includes passholders and regular attendance. Also, thanks for the info on the bond issuance, I've been looking to buy some bonds and I think these will be just the ones I want to buy!