disco2000

I said a rumor...according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a rumor is talk or opinion widely disseminated with no discernible source; OR a statement or report without known authority or truth.. Here is why I said it was a rumor.... Keep in mind that Walt Disney loved our own Coney Island where you work and made several visits to Coney while planning out Disneyland... Keep in mind that several Disney employees and consultants worked on the development of Kings Island, including Roy Disney himself... https://www.visitkingsisland.com/blog/2017/april/whats-in-a-name Given these relationships, it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that Taft Broadcasting had discussions with Disney about an acquisition at some point...even if it didn't go anywhere.... Given the relationships Matt Ouimet had with Disney, it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that topic wasn't discussed at some point...even if it didn't go anywhere... FUN is a publicly traded company and if the price is right they will sell... And of course from our very own forum, this thread started in 2007 that was created based on an article on the internet.... And all the various forums discussing the same article such as pointbuzz and others... http://www.intercot.com/discussion/archive/index.php?t-109886.html https://www.disboards.com/threads/should-disney-buy-out-cedar-fair-inc.1513807/ I believe this Disney falls under the definition of a rumor.... Did you hear Six Flags was looking to acquire Cedar Fair last year....

I mentioned in another thread that I could certainly see a media group try to purchase a desperate park being sold at an attractive price. Movie studios will need to find additional ways to market their product. Paramount is building a park in Korea...Imagine Paramount purchasing Cedar Fair...history does repeat itself...there are always the rumor that Disney was interested in KI...if the price is right and the buyer sees an opportunity...

Plus Disney truly has international destination status, so they will likely be one of the last parks to re-open because they do not want to open prematurely and have to shut down again with accusations that someone got the virus while at Disney...and while most business sectors are hurting, Disney can "afford" to stay closed longer until they are assured they can re-open with minimal risk...plus they need to make sure enough time has passed that people will have the "fear factor" subside and will want to visit them...

And let's hope years from now that CF brass remember the reason why attendance sucked the year Orion opened and not use that data point on an attendance chart and say "look we built Orion and it didn't draw in the attendance we expected, so no more $30M thrill rides...cheap family rides for all...."

But the August sales that get you in the rest of the current year are for NEW passes only AND meal and drink plans bought under that plan are not valid until the following year...this announcement means essentially nobody will be purchasing new or renewing passes in August this year...which is a large source of income lost... my long post on page 43 goes into great detail about this from a financial standpoint..

This will be a very telling week for Cedar Fair... As I have mentioned in my long documentaries LOL, the statement from Knott's this weekend extending pass and add-on benefits for all pass their pass holders, including platinum, through the 2021 season is a likely indicator that CF believes the closure seriously impacts their ability to re-open this year....but with some news today that we may now be hitting the apex this week as opposed to weeks/months from now, did they make that announcement too soon... Not even a month ago Knott's position was they would add whatever days were missed this year onto the the beginning of next year. That is a simple process because extending their passes, including platinum, realistically only gave people access to that park anyway because other CF parks would be closed anyway. Based on this prior statement, Knott's could be closed almost 3 months this year before a platinum pass would be able to be used at another CF park. They still had some time before they needed to revisit this announcement... Shortly after that announcement, the remaining CF parks also came out and said they plan to make up this year whatever days were lost based on their previously published calendar, as well as adding additional benefits to pass holders that would be announced at a later date. So why do I believe this will be a very telling week for Cedar Fair? If they do not announce this week a chain-wide offer that Knott's provided, that means CF believes that the remaining parks could still potentially open with enough days left in the year to make up for missed days! Or it could simply mean that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of their communication... IF CF does not make this announcement chain-wide and IF for some reason CF is able to open their parks this year and not have to extend gold and regular passes through the 2021 season, they have potentially just created unintended consequences of their Knott's announcement... What are these unintended consequences you may be asking yourself? Well, a platinum pass is a platinum pass. So Knott's announced platinum passes are now good thru the 2021 season. If the Knott's announcement doesn't go chain-wide, that now creates a disparity since your gold pass for KI is only valid for 2020, yet your friend that bought a platinum pass same day as you now gets in for 2021 as well... One could argue they could say that a 2020 platinum pass is only valid for 2021 season at Knott's or the 2021 season is only valid to platinum passes purchased at Knott's, but that then opens up a whole new set of issues associated with a platinum pass, from internal legacy admissions software issues that cannot deal with this issue, to creating a disparity based on where one purchases a platinum pass, etc...

Well with SEAS being one of the smaller salaries for a CEO in that industry, Sergio probably couldn't survive on his $600,000 salary being cut 20% One would think navigating rough SEAS should be simple considering their biggest employees come from the seas

And sales will now be down...apparently in Mexico alcohol is not considered essential https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/business/corona-beer-production/index.html

true...but the park already has restrooms and I see how few actually hand wash after using the facility...yuck..maybe they would be more likely to take a quick squirt before entering a line? plus the restrooms with air dryers contribute to this as the toilets do not have lids

Adding hand sanitizer stations everywhere...

If this isn't a cross-threading reference lol, I have had this very thing happen to me....

And this is why we had a shortage...this didn't raise any red flags?...nope it was going to make their Q1 look outstanding... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/04/02/us-exports-masks-ppe-china-surged-early-phase-coronavirus/5109747002/ Are you able to find masks - every story I have seen and discussions with medical professionals and my own looking indicates nobody has them available for purchase? My nurse friends are having to go without or spray with lysol and re-use everyday? I agree with you. I am trying to manage expectations that they will not open and if they do, then be pleasantly surprised! I just hope they open for the right reasons and safe reasons and not because the government gets antsy and it results in overwhelmed hospitals and decisions having to be made like not to treat people over age 70 and those with underlying health conditions like other countries are having to do..we have already gone down this path and the economic damage is done (yeah there is still room to bottom out) and to reverse now, one would have to question if we would have been better off to just let it run it's course and overwhelm hospitals and have way more deaths but it may be done already? I would not want to be responsible for that decision!

I like to be thorough and detailed with explanations to back my reasoning and show it isn't just a gut feel like a lot of the "the park will open in mid-May" comments....and to keep King Ding Dong from asking for reasons why as he does to the "the park will open in mid-May" posters LOL... If you would like more details, I have them... that is my executive summary LOL... I mean Kings Dominion is opening mid-May - their website says so, despite their Governor's order thru June 10th issued earlier this week...

I believe that Cedar Fair’s statement issued out of Knott’s today is an indicator as to their mindset. I believe it is truly a “read between the lines” statement. Their statement today severely negatively impacts their 2020 third quarter earnings (more below on that). I find it very telling that before even 70% of their parks were originally scheduled to be open that they made this announcement. Nine of their 13 parks would not have been opened yet this year when they made today’s announcement. That is a huge indicator and red flag. It is also important to remember that Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company and that affects the type and timing of their communication. I outlined on page 37 of this thread over 25 reasons why I believe the season will be a wash (and statements like Knott’s further add to that ever growing list). My analysis was looking at all data: data from the health and science community; data from others in this industry and what they are doing; data from other business sectors; history – both from the 1918 pandemic and current history from the countries that saw this before the USA; financial considerations; and my own personal experiences. Cedar Fair is a publicly traded company. They live and die by quarterly statements. First quarter for 2020 (Q1) will be slightly down (maybe $10-$15M) from normal as the closure of Knott’s and postponing of Carowinds and Kings Dominion opening were towards the end of the quarter. Historically Q1 is 6% of their revenue. Q2 is when they start to ramp up because parks are starting to open. Q2 typically makes up 30% of their revenue. Suspending payment plans hurts revenue this quarter. Q3 is where they make their money – typically 51% of their revenue comes from this quarter. All parks are open daily during all or most of this quarter. Company outings and daily admissions make up over 50% of their attendance and most of that will be during this quarter. Pre-sales of passes for the following season occur during this quarter and it is strategic why it happens when it does - to help boost earnings for the quarter if weather impacted attendance. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… Q4 they start to drop off again. Q4 is typically 13% of their revenue. This is the quarter where most of Haunt and all of Winterfest falls. They also continue to pre-sell passes for the following year. They make great stocking stuffers. Let’s analyze these quarters for 2020: Q1 - Cedar Fair can nothing about it now – that is already in the record books. In all likelihood Q1 will be down from previous years. Q2 is going to be dictated by all the stay home and social distancing efforts taking place. These keep getting extended. Virginia has already issued it through June 10th, so that impacts Kings Dominion. My post on Page 36 outlines the impact that date has to Kings Dominion IF that stay-at-home and social distancing order isn’t extended. They now suspended payment plans (good for consumer, bad for CF), so Q2 is going to suck from a revenue perspective. Based on current trends of pushing out social distancing, Q2 will end up having zero parks open. In all likelihood Q2 will be down from previous years significantly. Q3 is where they make their money. If stay-at-home and social distancing efforts keep getting extended, it seriously hurts their bottom line. If these Orders last until June 30th and IF the all clear is given for everything, it is unlikely the parks would be in position to open at the start of Q3. It will take weeks to get back operational, get permitted to run, train staff, etc. Shows and other entertainment events will probably not occur. They will not be able to give the experience pass holders are expecting. In all likelihood, business sectors will be open up slowly and evaluated before opening up more. Where do seasonal attractions fall in that lineup? Will people come out or still have fear? Will companies cancel their company outings to parks and will daily gate admissions disappear because people lost their jobs – these make up 50% of their attendance? Cedar Fair is taking all of these into consideration. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes for 2021… Q3 is likely down from previous years. Q4 is 13% of their revenue. Yes, there are costs associated with Haunt and Winterfest, but staffing, training, etc. has mostly been encumbered in previous quarters. The cost to “open up” just for Q4 is not going to provide a return on the investment. So what does this all mean? Taking all the other factors I have mentioned above and on page 37 out of the equation, from just a science/health/biology/virology standpoint, this virus will follow a generally known pattern. The unknowns are the specific durations and peaks, but it will follow a bell curve in some form or fashion and will have at least another wave if not two more before a vaccine is available. Our country makes up 4.25% of the population, yet we have 26% of the known cases. That is an outrageous difference. Other countries have responded better than we have so it will likely take longer for us to recover (see pages 28 and 41 for more details). The peak keeps getting shifted, which is good as it should mean healthcare is available (which we have seen in some areas it is not), and it is also bad as this new normal gets extended and more and more people lose their jobs. But at some point we will hit that peak, and then all the measures taken will hold that peak at a fairly constant level for a certain period of time (current projections are one to two months before it starts going down). So the latest model shows we peak in early to mid June and hold steady and then starts the decline at the end of July. And then of course we will then start to see restrictions slowly removed and reevaluated and either more open or we close again. Early history from countries starting to re-open is they had to go back to restrictive measures. Cedar Fair is a business first and foremost and a publicly traded company at that. If we do not see the decline of the bell curve until July, then the next question is at what point on the curve are we given the all clear? That could be a month or more before we start seeing a gradual opening up of businesses. At this point the parks will essentially lose all of Q3 as well. At that point, if the expenses to open and operate for the rest of the year are less than the revenue generated, it does not make sense financially to do so. Based on everything I have seen and analyzed and posted in previous posts, that is why I believe from a health perspective we will not see parks re-open this year. As the NFL chief medical doctor said "As long as we're still in a place where when a single individual tests positive for the virus that you have to quarantine every single person who was in contact with them in any shape, form or fashion, then I don't think you can begin to think about reopening." Now that was for football, but the same statement can apply to amusement parks. Opening and closing a park is a huge financial burden. No park wants to have a case traced back to them. Certainly Cedar Fair has certainly analyzed that same data and all their internal data and discussions with investors and others and made projections and decisions that led to the statement issued today. They absolutely destroyed their 2020 Q3 earnings with today’s announcement and put a dent in 2020 Q2 earnings as well by suspending payment plans. The announcement today SERIOUSLY impacts Q3 of 2020 as people are not going to have to renew passes… If the projections are that only 10 percent (or whatever percent they decide) would be daily admissions or company outings if they open after a certain date and thus would have no new real revenue as everyone going would be pass holders with meal and drink plans, financially at some point it makes sense to not open… If they stay closed all year, it just so happens that this decision will make sense from a financial standpoint as well…take the charge and move on... Being a publicly traded company, they will find a way to take a charge on this for filing purposes and have it minimize their financials the best they can. I have worked at publicly traded companies. I have seen business decisions made based on what it would do to a quarterly earnings and take the charge (loss) that quarter or year or kick it to the next quarter/year depending on projections and earnings. Sometimes the decisions defy what one would think is common sense, but you have to look at all the factors and make a decision. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. For all we know this could simply be a moral obligation/decision as well – suspend payment plans to help those that need that money now for other more pressing things, but that decision comes at the cost of the park now not being able to open this year if the all-clear is given due to that delayed revenue stream…Of course they could never say that because too many would slam them for taking away their opportunity to ride Orion because people couldn't keep up with their payment plan and who knows what other horrible statements people would post to FaceBook... Now all of this changes in a moment if some existing drug that is readily available is found to be a cure or vaccine or elected officials ignore science and their medical professionals and decide to say "Screw it" and re-open up the economy... Short of that, based on history, we could see this in some form or fashion be our current normal for up to the next 18 months... TL:DR – today’s Knott’s announcement to suspend payment plans and make all passes are good thru 2021 has significantly hurt their revenue stream for the second quarter (payment plans was their only revenue at the moment) and absolutely destroys 2020 third quarter as nobody will be renewing passes for 2021, leading to a likelihood that they believe 2020 cannot be salvaged and will not open this year.

It's a moving target, but all indicators keep pushing it later and we need to manage our expectations and not expect an opening anytime soon (for more indicators see my book post in the other thread LOL)... https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/cleveland-clinic-ceo-coronavirus-peak-in-ohio-expected-between-mid-may-and-mid-june/

Anything is possible, but a season pass is meant to cover 12 months of revenue and expenses, not 18 months of expenses..to make that announcement now before many of their parks were even originally scheduled to be open is a telling sign as to their thought process that they do not believe they will open this year... This announcement is just one more strong indicator to everything I posted many pages back (page 37) as to why it is unlikely we will see the parks open this year... ...and yes I am aware that they do offer new pass holders essentially 17 months when they purchase a pass in August that gets them in the rest of that year and the following year...that is what is called a loss leader and it is an intentional way to acquire additional funding that quarter and because meal and drink plans for the following year were not valid for the current year under that promotion, CF hoped that these people would then spend for food and other things during the "free part" of that promotion...and they hope that once they purchase a pass, that they become a renewal pass holder in future years... I am glad they followed others leads and have suspended payment plans for the time being to help out everyone trying to pay more pressing bills!

For platinum passes I would say once a year round park opens the payments will start...I would think that KI passes would start then as well since people are paying monthly on months the park isn't open ...

I mentioned this in the other thread to this announcement:

They may wait but since Knott's mentions platinum passes, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion this will be chain-wide... ...also this announcement does lay the groundwork to later simply say they will not open this year ... To make the announcement now that passes will be good thru 2021 is a telling indicator of such likelihood...

I'll take crying over spilled milk category for $200 Alex... https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohio-dairy-farmers-are-having-to-dump-their-milk-while-some-grocery-stores-limit-purchase-quantities/32040910 ...but seriously, people hoarding like they have been for no reason and now we have double jeopardy happening because stores were forced to ration and now dairy farmers have excess product...and nobody can get any milk in the process...unintended consequences..

Yeah Kroger is part of it too and all remaining open stores in Ohio..and some are voluntarily doing it Nationwide. 4 people in my neighborhood work for employers that each did a 30% reduction in staff. Fortunately they were spared this round but now they pick up the slack and hope they are spared next round... It is going to get ugly quick now that people are realizing this is our new normal for awhile...

Good point...one would hope they meant shoppers at 20% capacity but I could see staff being cut too

@Joshua yes they are limiting store to about 20% capacity. Line starts at front outside and only one door in and one door out. When someone leaves then another guest will be allowed in. The aisles are going to be one way traffic... The good news is for those itching to go stand in a queue line, you can now do that at your local Walmart a week earlier than the originally planned KI opening. You are sure to get a rollback there too...

These are the people getting screwed for paying in advance (albeit that is the business model for these kind of trips): https://www.wcpo.com/money/consumer/dont-waste-your-money/parents-furious-student-tours-not-offering-full-refunds I think most agree that Cedar Fair will try to do right to their pass holders once they can re-open.

How long until Fast Lane comes to a Walmart near you... https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2020/04/03/changes-to-our-shopping-process-to-encourage-social-distancing ...in all seriousness, this has the potential to really be bad. We think line-jumpers at KI are bad...wait until we see it at Walmart and people offering money to those in line to exchange place with them...I hope it doesn't come to that... and it isn't limited to Walmart, many others are going to a similar format like Target and Kroger...in Ohio they have to based on Governor Order yesterday...