disco2000

It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to May 1st. Data and information changes everyday and we should expect to see setbacks like other countries are experiencing. The IHME modeling seems to be the most widely accepted and the one mentioned the most at White House briefings, but there are so many model predictions out there that elected officials will look at and use. The latest IHME modeling information that came out after DeWine's last press conference suggests that Ohio should wait until May 18th to start Phase 1. The IHME suggests Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia could open to Phase 1 by May 4; while Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah are among states that would need to wait until late June or early July. We will see what happens now...I would expect Phase 1 to be at least a month before going into Phase 2, if not longer.

I understand your context, I was simply building upon your cardio statement to counter the argument other people are commenting in other forums or news articles statements like "Open up the economy, heart disease kills more than COVID does". That may be a true statement, but heart disease isn't contagious either! You raise a very valid point regarding the CDC study projecting the increased deaths associated with cardiovascular and other ailments as a result of this. It's a data point not many have thought about, so thanks for pointing that out. Personally, I have lost weight throughout this. Part of it is I haven't had any take-out food since March 14th, and I have been in ration mode on my food because apparently people thought grocery stores would close so for the first few weeks I couldn't find anything LOL...still no toilet paper on shelves near me...I am sure I will find that weight and more once KI opens up and I use my meal plan! But you are correct, the dilemma policy makers are in is overwhelming, which is why most President's leave the White House with a lot more grey hair than they went in with!

The thing about statistics is you can make them say whatever you want them to say and be truthful depending on your bias... One cannot simply look at one stat and make an accurate opinion and assessment, but that is what a lot of people, including some media, do to make their point. I try to look up every piece of available information before formulating an opinion. And my opinion may change as new information is found or presented. Here is something interesting to prove my point that you can make stats say whatever you want... @Outdoor Man made a reference above about how COVID-19 deaths pale in comparison to cardiovascular issues. @bjcolglazier made a reference as to the number of COVID-19 deaths are about the same as US automobile fatalities. Well it just so happens that you can take a snapshot and make an argument the other way. Here are the weekly deaths historically for the second week in April: This graphic, taken out of context, dispels all the other reasons people have suggested as well, such as increased suicides, accidents, flu, etc. Is this trend likely to continue for an entire year, probably not, but somebody somewhere will take this graphic and run with it to make their point about how bad COVID-19 is. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying COVID-19 isn't bad, nor I am defending anyone's point of view or opinion on the matter, nor is this directed at anyone, it is simply pointing something out. On the contrary, it shows the importance that we cannot approach this topic (or any controversial topic) in a myopic manner. We have to be thoughtful and educated on topics we are speaking on and be willing to sit back and truly evaluate what value we add to the conversation, if any at all. If our only value on a topic is an emotionally charged post not based on all the facts it is not doing anyone a service, and continues the cycle of bad information being passed around. I believe that some neutrality and trying to see both sides before making an informed opinion on a divisive issue is important and not doing that and being quick to judge or have an ill-informed opinion based on one data point or news article is one of the things wrong with our society today - people get emotionally charged about an issue without knowing all (or in some cases any) of the facts and are quick to pass judgment with no basis other than psychological projection based on their personal upbringing and experiences. They are easy to spot because they have no basis for their feelings other than "because" and that sounds like the old parent response when their child asks why and the parent says "because I said so". I appreciate someone actually providing reasons for their opinions rather than being so emotionally charged that they can't say much more than "because". It gives me another viewpoint and potentially another data point in considering my opinion on the subject...it may change my opinion or it may not, but at least I will understand their viewpoint...

Which new ride had the latest opening date for its first year?

And let’s not get caught up on a percentage either. Regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths does not change and that will be the driving factor going forward. New studies are suggesting that COVID-19 has infected 85% of the US population of 330 million and the corresponding death rate if nobody else dies would be 0.04%. That would be 132,000 deaths, which ironically is in the range of the projected death counts made back in March... Last flu season in the US resulted in 34,200 deaths from a total of 35.5 million infected. That means it infected roughly 10% of the population and the death rate was 0.1%. So from a death percentage basis, it may look like the flu is deadlier, but from a total death count, COVID-19 is deadlier...it is the relationship between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when we return to normal. In just 48 days, COVID-19 has killed more in the US than the flu did for the entire flu season last year (2018-2019)...

Fair enough (no pun intended LOL)...thank you for explaining how you developed your opinion and dismissing it as a gut feel opinion!

@Fishely - where in my post did I compare a fair to Kings Island? I am very well aware of the differences between a fund-raising weekend-only fair and a for-profit publicly traded entity. I was simply adding this here as fairs have rides and a "feel" of an amusement park on a much lower scale, thus it's relevance to this thread... but since you bring food and patrons up as differences, people do have meal and drink plans at KI and their patrons are of all ages, so there are some similarities that you have pointed out! But if we want to get technical on your statements, KI does have volunteers from time to time that are not personally paid, but rather an organization fund-raising (similar to the volunteers at a fair volunteering for that organization)...they are easily identified as their name tags are stickers with their name written on them. One will usually see them at the start and end of the seasons, but may become more common if they open this summer and need workers. At the very least, KI and CP probably will not be able to use their dorms due to social distancing requirements and international workers will probably have travel restrictions preventing them from traveling, so any staff shortcoming can come from volunteers fund-raising for their respective organization. And these organizations will need the help because many of their primary fund-raising functions have or had been cancelled. Replacing older workers with younger workers is age discrimination and is protected by law. The law could change temporarily as a result of COVID, but as it stands now, KI cannot replace an older employee in favor of a younger one.

A long standing west-side tradition dating back to 1860, the Harvest Home Fair and parade in September has been cancelled for 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns...

^ I am surprised more parks haven't done that yet to provide another data point for them to consider as to what the guest may be willing to "give up" for the sake of opening. I think anyone saying they could walk around an amusement park all day with a face mask on hasn't worn one for any period of time. They itch, you get all moist underneath it, nose gets watery, etc. You lose 5-20% of your lung capacity due to essentially breathing most of your exhale so the oxygen level drops each breath. Not like being buried alive as the mask does have some breath-ability to it, but wear one for too long and some people will get light headed - especially outside on a summer day. Imagine how difficult it would be for a worker to work in the summer heat with all the PPE on? They will need more staff just for additional breaks. Masks would be needing to be replaced multiple times a shift due to getting soaked with sweat. Does the park actually kick people out for taking their masks off - would it be enforced more than smoking? How many more staff would be needed to enforce social distancing? If parks implement the rapid testing for everyone - where do they all go waiting for the test results and comply with social distancing? Getting through the front-gate on a busy day is jammed packed now, this would add to it 15-fold. Oh and one option is they would go back to employees refilling drink cups - there is a disaster in the making...I cannot tell you how many of those cups I see go into a bathroom in one hand, and um well, person then leaves the bathroom without washing their hands..one of the main reasons why the parks installed fill your own drink dispensers. Now we will go back to the same employee with gloves on taking someone's nasty germ infested cup to refill it, then go make your Skyline Coney basket....sounds like a yummy recipe for an upset tummy... Still lots of questions the parks need to answer before opening...

Regarding the Stanford comment - when has college theory ever matched reality LOL Most of the experts have previously suggested and agreed that more people have been infected than what the testing to date has shown and that until this antibody test could be developed and random testing conducted, it would be a scientific speculation that was the case, so the article doesn't really bring up anything new other than they are testing the antibody test...and to keep this documentary short LOL, I will not even discuss the reported 15%+ people getting the virus twice so far...as that data point will throw another wrench into the whole works... To calculate the death rate, the COVID-19 trackers divide total deaths by the number of known cases, which shows about 6.4 percent of people infected with the virus have now died worldwide. In Italy, the death rate stands at about 13 percent, and in the United States, around 4.3 percent, according to the latest figures on known cases and deaths. These numbers cited at Covid-19 news conferences relies on a data set that includes mostly people whose symptoms were severe enough to be tested, so the percentages will likely be higher than reality. Antibody testing and random testing will certainly bring to light more data...and data is good. In all likelihood these additional tests will bring the death percentage down, but to what number? In communities that experienced this first, their numbers are starting to trend down - Wuhan's for example has dropped to 1.2%. Many experts believe this death percentage number will be 1% once random and antibody testing is available and conducted. Keep in mind, the infection fatality rate of seasonal flu strains, which kill tens of thousands of Americans each year, is about 0.1 percent. So this thing is still deadly and seems to be more contagious and to have a stronger impact on certain demographics, as you have pointed out before... Since the first reported US death on February 29th, this has already killed more Americans (37,158), than the entire 2018-2019 season of the flu last year (34,200 deaths). So if it is determined to be more contagious than the flu, that means more people become infected by this than the flu and become asymptomatic super-spreaders of the virus, coupled with what may turn out to be a 1% death rate, which would be 10 times deadly than the flu, then we still have social distancing in our future... It is the equation between the infectious rate, total number infected, and total number deaths that will ultimately determine when normal happens. However, regardless of what the final death percentage turns out to be, the total number of deaths do not change and that will be a driving factor going forward... Look at the backlash Dr. Oz got by assuming it would be 2%... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-oz-slammed-for-suggesting-it-may-only-cost-us-2-to-3-of-american-lives-to-reopen-schools-2020-04-16

While I recognize Speigel is in the industry and is a nice guy, a simple search on this forum will point out how many times he has been wrong on what ride was coming next even after looking at the blueprints....maybe he was under contract with CF to make wrong projections and speculations to the media or he really didn't know...so don't put all your eggs in the what he is saying basket... A lot of these posts were from decoding threads that have since been locked so you can't quote them, so it will require one to use the search feature... Even you HC325 called him out for saying Orion had loops lol....if I recall correctly I think he said Diamondback was going to be a giga and Banshee was going to be wing or dive coaster...

And how did Terpy not take exception to the non-proper naming of the ride in the thread title..he was always giving people the biz over that

I would expect that they will not have it "completed" until they know when the park is opening. Under the Governor's Orders, construction activity could continue. KI does not want to accept Orion as complete until they are ready to resume operations. Once they accept it, the warranty period starts. They do not want to lose a year of warranty for a ride sitting....especially if it is a one year warranty...but whatever the warranty period is, you want to maximize the opportunity to have it covered. Yes I realize the ride will be sitting for 5-6 months during the off-season, but you do not want to waste an operating cycle of the warranty if you can help it.

Whichever camp you are in (will they open or not this year), wait a week. SIX stock increased 20% the day after they made their announcement. Expect FUN to show similar gains tomorrow (maybe not 20% since they didn't say they have enough cash through opening 2021). But then again, after hours trading did increase the FUN value 14% since the announcement... It will take about a week for the unit price to get to today's price. Now here is where people can show with their wallet which camp they are in LOL: If you believe they will open this year, in about a week or so, go ahead and purchase as it may not be rock bottom, but will probably be close. The value will increase once an opening day is announced. If you believe they will not open this year, wait until after that announcement is official to purchase because the value will tank that day and the next. What's in your wallet..oh wait wrong company *disclaimer time - I am not your adviser and anything I mentioned is my opinion and not intended to provide tax, legal, accounting, financial, or professional advice, and readers are advised to seek out qualified professionals that provide advice on these issues for your specific circumstances.

A couple of nuggets from the FUN press release: Reduce its capital spending for calendar year 2020, including the suspension of at least $75-100 million of non-essential capital projects planned for the 2020 and 2021 operating seasons. The Company now anticipates spending $85-100 million on capital improvements in calendar year 2020. So all new for 2021 may become all new for 2022... Should the park closures extend later into the year, the Company is prepared to activate additional cost-cutting and cash-savings measures. The Company is also taking steps to secure additional liquidity and address any potential debt covenant issues, in the event that the COVID-19 crisis continues. In contrast, SIX said they were: Eliminating at least $30-40 million of additional non-labor operating costs in 2020, including the increased investments the company announced in its fourth quarter 2019 earnings release to improve the guest experiences. Some 2020 anticipated attractions may get moved to 2021 (they were silent on what these expenditures were for). But like FUN, probably all new for 2021 may become all new for 2022 as they have to slide capital projects back a year... At this time, the company believes it has sufficient liquidity to meet its cash obligations until the opening of the 2021 operating season A lot of what they announced are comparable...reducing costs, reductions in salaries, etc. What is interesting is based on the statements, it appears SIX is in better position financially to make it until the 2021 operating season if they stay closed all year; whereas FUN has alluded to they are taking steps to secure additional liquidity if the closures extend later into the year. Now a lot can be interpreted from that statement. It could be that SIX has more cash on hand or access to it, OR it could be FUN has their cash tied up in investments that they will look to sell off or will look to take on more debt, OR it could be SIX statement includes anticipated sell off of assets...

Actually I love amusement parks and had over 80 visits to parks last year and attend enthusiast events...Passes are one of the best values around...I would love to get two years out of my pass and meal plans, but that isn't likely... However, I also understand the dynamics of a business and how a business makes money... I am simply trying to manage expectations of people that think the parks will open simply because "they can make money selling merch"...enough merch cannot be bought to pay for operating an entire park...it can cover the costs of the shops selling it, but not an entire park... KI has fixed costs that basically cannot change. Their operating costs are how much it costs to open and run the park. Your statement money coming in is better than nothing isn't totally accurate for a business model reliant on season passes as it relates to this current situation. It costs way more to operate KI on a per employee basis than say a local lazer tag. Let's assume that the utilities and rent are the fixed costs for the lazer tag. They have 4 employees each making $10/hour, so their labor costs are $40/hour total. They charge $10/hour for guests to play. As long as they have more than 4 people per hour in their establishment, then yes money coming in is better than nothing because they are making money on every guest after number 4. To the consumer, the cost/hour for entertainment value is $10/hour for lazer tag. For KI the cost/hour for entertainment is $3.5/hour, based on a daily admission that is $42 dollars for 12 hours of entertainment (say a 10am to 10pm open to close), and the cost/hour of entertainment value is even less for a passholder. What does this mean, an amusement park needs to make it up on volume of the number of guests in the park, much more so than a lot of other businesses... What number of guests does KI need to have in the park to be making money? If the number they are going to be capped at plus the costs to ensure compliance to comply with social distancing requirements is less than the number of guests they need to make money, why would they open? If the only people coming in are season pass holders with meal and drink plans, KI is then spending money of ours they already have and no new revenue is coming in. They have to take the money they already have from us and instead of paying for 2020, they also have to pay for 2021 from it based on their recent announcement....two years for the price of one is good for the consumer, bad for the company... If the income from opening the park is less than what it costs to open the park, then they are spending money to lose even more money. If for every 10 dollars it costs to operate the park, they only bring in $1 in new revenue, then it costs them more to open than the new revenue brought in. It would be like walking into KI and passing over a dollar to pick up a dime... Money IN has to be greater than Money OUT... When they don't open this year, there will be a lot of disappointed people on this forum. It all comes down to managing expectations... Personally I am assuming they will not be opening based on everything people, including me LOL, have posted why they won't be (look at that other thread for a lot more detail), and then if they do, I can be pleasantly surprised... It's all about perspective...believe they will open and when they don't be disappointed, or believe they won't be open and be excited if they do... Personally I think the parks opening this year is a super ideal in a perfect world scenario and not reality; whereas you think not opening is the super ideal in a perfect world scenario and think reality is they will open... One of the things that makes our country great is that we are each entitled to our own opinion. Some opinions are based on information and indicators and the direction things are going, and others are opinions simply based on hope and gut feels...to each their own...

Yes, you probably can social distance at an amusement park easier than a crowded stadium by creating virtual queues and strict enforcement of the social distancing requirements. However, sporting events have TV rights/revenues that the teams will make money from so they can afford to play a sport to an empty stadium; whereas, an amusement park cannot open up to no guests, or limiting the number of guests so dramatically that they cannot make money. Bengals have proven for years they can make money with an empty stadium..an amusement park not so much... A concert or sporting event could also be pay per view (PPV).... I guess a park could try to sell the rights to their POV's, but I doubt a TV station would feel that would be a money maker for them... There is a cost associated to a park to comply with these efforts - limiting the number of guests allowed into the park, PPE for employees, more security to enforce social distancing, probably longer dispatch times and trains with every other seat and row empty, probably not every ride open, no shows inside, list goes on and on. Do they charge a daily surcharge fee to address these additional costs not anticipated? Rumpke added a fuel surcharge several years ago when gas prices were approaching $5/gallon.... How does the park determine who gets in operating at a reduced capacity - pass holders first, daily admission, or private events? They couldn't do it first come, first serve as no way social distancing would be followed. Think line jumping is an issue now, wait until there is six feet between people...Do they kick people out and revoke their pass for violating social distancing? Do they divide the alphabet into the days and those with a last name A through C are allowed on Mondays, D through F on Tuesday, etc.? What about based on number of miles away from the park - anyone greater than 35 miles will not be admitted? Or only those living in Ohio? However they decide to cap the capacity people will be ticked... Do they make money if all they let in are pass holders with meal and drink plans and no daily admissions? The product provided will be a different experience. They will have to monitor and enforce this much greater than any smoking policy they have...Nosy Nancy will certainly be looking for violations to report and shut the place down... A lot of questions Kings Island needs to answer... In addition to those answers, the park needs to be able to assure that they keep their employees and guests safe and make money operating at a reduced capacity. If they feel they cannot address both, they don't open...they do not have TV rights to fall back on for revenue like a sports league does... (PS...a lot of what is being posted here has already been discussed in the thread about Coronavirus impacting amusement parks...)

And these same Nosy Nancy's would be the ones reporting to the authorities the social distancing violations at an amusement park, shutting the whole place down.... They did that at the tennis court at the park. Walking trail slammed with people but that is no problem, but two people playing tennis well beyond 6 feet apart got in trouble...I can think of a few people that would be watching KI very carefully...

You can social distance at an amusement park. There is a cost associated with that effort - limiting the number of guests allowed into the park, PPE for employees, more security to enforce social distancing, probably longer dispatch times and trains with every other seat and row empty, probably not every ride open, no shows inside, list goes on and on. Do they charge a daily surcharge fee to address these additional costs not anticipated? Rumpke added a fuel surcharge several years ago when gas prices were approaching $5/gallon... How does the park determine who gets in operating at a reduced capacity - pass holders first, daily admission, or closed events? They couldn't do it first come, first serve as no way social distancing would be followed. Think line jumping is an issue now, wait until there is six feet between people...Do they kick people out and revoke their pass for violating social distancing? Do they make money if all they let in are pass holders with meal and drink plans? Do they divide the alphabet into the days and those with a last name A through C are allowed on Mondays, D through F on Tuesday, etc.? The product provided will be a different experience. A lot of questions CF needs to answer... In addition to those answers, the park needs to be able to assure that they keep their employees and guests safe and make money operating at a reduced capacity. If they feel they cannot address both, they don't open...

Sure, we all are entitled to our opinion...what makes you feel like they will open....what indicators are you seeing? Can you substantiate your opinion, unlike many of the one line posts that is more gut feel with nothing to validate their opinion...now whether someone agrees or disagrees is an individual choice, but at least one can understand how you formulated your opinion... True...but there are lots of indicators pointing towards not opening (see the other thread for posts with reasons on why they may not open (science, other business sectors, their competition, financials) and documentaries someone wrote pointing out the these indicators and analysis of CF Financials and interpretation of the SIX Q1 statement LOL)...in the opening argument the best we have seen is "they can sell merch"...

The Schlitterbahn Waterparks are still the old message of mid-May....

And Cedar Fair just finally made all platinum passes equal...

Or open in 2021 either....Orion all new for 2022.. Cedar Fair finally made all passes equal and made Wonderland passes valid through 2021...

Let's hope countries learn from what is now happening where this outbreak originated - places that had some of the most restrictive measures in place to try to contain it and flatten their curve are seeing the surge and locking down again or will be soon in all likelihood.... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/coronavirus-china-asia-countries-resurgence/

Hopefully one of these days Cedar Fair makes all platinum passes created equal...