CGA is closing, should we be concerned about Canada’s Wonderland

[MisterSG1]

As so far, we have seen Wonderand have something close to a post COVID season, no restrictions have been placed on the park at all. And with that, breaking the 4 million guest barrier does seem highly plausible, the situation at CGA causes concern for the future of Wonderland.

Ignoring what the government chooses to do next here in Ontario should a new variant arise. Many have quoted the complications of California regulations as to why Cedar Fair sold the land CGA sits on.

Now, the GTA has the same kind of crazy real estate situation that is seen in SF, watch any news up here and you’ll hear doom and gloom about Canada’s housing shortage and what not. Of course I won’t get into my opinions as to why this has happened and it really is a dark side to living in this area.

The fact remains that Wonderland sits on prime real estate for condominiums. It’s not a stretch to say that Wonderland‘s land could easily fetch a sale price equivalent or higher of that in Northern California.

[Orion742]

5 minutes ago, MisterSG1 said:

As so far, we have seen Wonderand have something close to a post COVID season, no restrictions have been placed on the park at all. And with that, breaking the 4 million guest barrier does seem highly plausible, the situation at CGA causes concern for the future of Wonderland.

Ignoring what the government chooses to do next here in Ontario should a new variant arise. Many have quoted the complications of California regulations as to why Cedar Fair sold the land CGA sits on.

Now, the GTA has the same kind of crazy real estate situation that is seen in SF, watch any news up here and you’ll hear doom and gloom about Canada’s housing shortage and what not. Of course I won’t get into my opinions as to why this has happened and it really is a dark side to living in this area.

The fact remains that Wonderland sits on prime real estate for condominiums. It’s not a stretch to say that Wonderland‘s land could easily fetch a sale price equivalent or higher of that in Northern California.

I think it will be safe for a while I wouldn’t worry about it.

[disco2000]

Two different situations, but anything is possible.  I think the likely scenario would be if the cost of doing business in another country became cost prohibitive.

[Benjamin22]

Canadas wonderland is one of the chains most profitable properties and as such it’s at a much lower risk of being closed. That being said it wouldn’t surprise me if Cedar Fair itself is sold to another company within the next few years.

[gforce1994]

I think a lot of people had high hopes for the park considering all the work CF put into it. Unfortunately, Covid and the out of control real estate market really created a worst case scenario for CF and CGA.

[Kenban]

There is a giant difference between the two, profitability.  CGA was barely making any money.  This information is a few years old but Canada's Wonderland was 4th or 5th in profitability, roughly around Carowinds, a lot of this is the exchange rate.  But this is still a lot of money.  Unless something major changes the park is safe, the chain can make more money operating it as a theme park then selling the land.  Which is the key its worth more as a park then being sold, which was not the case for CGA.

When people say regulations surrounding CGA's closure.  Its the height limits, the noise problems due to being near companies, parking issues, earthquake protection, etc.  None of which effects Canada's Wonderland.  CGA had a 35 ft height restriction until a few years ago, every single attraction was a fight.  The park had potential but it was going to be expensive and a risk that the chain would never make the money back.

There is none of these issues with Canada's Wonderland.  Land prices would need to not just be as expensive as California, they would have to be higher maybe a lot higher before its worth it to sell.  I have been worried about CGA for a while, I have zero concerns for CW.

[MisterSG1]

9 minutes ago, gforce1994 said:

I think a lot of people had high hopes for the park considering all the work CF put into it. Unfortunately, Covid and the out of control real estate market really created a worst case scenario for CF and CGA.

Consider that Wonderland wasn’t open a single day in 2020, and 2021 was watered down, required reservations, masks on rides, etc. There were NO mazes in Haunt, and during Winterfest they confirmed to government policy and a vaccine passport was demanded for entry. It’s not a stretch to see this come back in 2022 during the fall, but we’ll see.

Wonderland because of regulation with governments in Canada has the same kind of baggage that CGA has.

[DoomPlague]

It's still a big stretch. CW is the most popular seasonal park on the continent and will easily bounce back, regardless of Canadian regulations.

It's also the best park in Canada (arguably the only great one). So I question if the government would actually step in to prevent closure.

[MisterSG1]

6 minutes ago, DoomPlague said:

It's still a big stretch. CW is the most popular seasonal park on the continent and will easily bounce back, regardless of Canadian regulations.

It's also the best park in Canada (arguably the only great one). So I question if the government would actually step in to prevent closure.

The situation is different but I’ve explained in the past in how difficult it was to even build Wonderland in the first place. 
 

I think anti-Americanism in Canada is so shameful, but this was a big reason why so many were against the park opening over 40 years ago. The situation is different now but I know the Trudeau Liberals would be indifferent to the closure.

Again, with the huge housing shortage, I think many would clap to see wonderland be replaced by condos.

[Kenban]

Cedar Fair used to publish this data annually, sadly its been a few years.  But look at these graphs, and really look at the one on the right, EBITDA, and compare the tiny little slice that is CGA and the much larger wedge that is CW.  Is this a few years old?  Yes, but frankly it does not change that much.  The exchange rate is even similar today to what it was in 2016.  CW is roughly 10% in the graph, 10% of $481 million is $48 million USD.  That's how much the park was making a year.  The $310 million dollars that Cedar Fair is getting for CGA is like 40 years of profits at CGA, but only a little over 6 at CW.

[MisterSG1]

The exchange rate shouldn’t really change things that much because in general, prices have been higher for products here compared to in the US. For example, a game that comes out on PSN may sell for $25 in the US but be $35 in Canada. Im sure if we compared prices for Funnel Cakes for example between Wonderland and Kings Island, you’d see the dollar amount in CDN much higher than what the same product is at Kings Island.

 

Anyways, why is CP’s wedge so big? Is it because of CP having accommodations onsite?

[SonofBaconator]

7 minutes ago, MisterSG1 said:

Anyways, why is CP’s wedge so big? Is it because of CP having accommodations onsite?

Resorts generate a lot more revenue than people think

[MisterSG1]

Let’s sort of reset this thread, and explain why I thought based on what I saw on the other thread why Wonderland may have been in trouble.

As described on the other thread, one user said that CGA is bound on all sides by residential and commercial and thus has no space to grow. This is PRECISELY the situation at Canada’s Wonderland, immediately to the south of wonderland is a subdivision, east of it is mostly suburban strip malls, north of it is now the hospital which I’ll speak about more in a second, and of course west of it is Hwy 400.

I think wonderland in the past owned more property, they did own the land where the hospital sits, I’m practically sure of it as Wonderland had a huge giant variation of a trumpet interchange with Major Mack and the park. Ironically, this trumpet interchange was missing the most fundamental ramp, from EB Major Mack to the park which made it kind of pointless. The main way into the park is the access road off Rutherford and always has been.

Furthermore, with the hospital, something to consider and I hope the government covered their bases which they honestly should have. Is that the hospital sits very close to Leviathan, I hope they introduced a significant level of soundproofing to the windows in the hospital or the healthcare sector (and the general public) will get very angry with Wonderland.

As for the 49ers, why is that really an issue? The NFL only has 8 (or 9 every other year) regular season games or 2 preseason games. As CGA is a seasonal park, the NFL wouldn’t compromise that many dates in the grand scheme of things.

 

Now as for real estate, go look up the price of houses in Vaughan and you’ll be shocked, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wonderland could get a 300 million dollar figure for the land it sits on as well.

 

As for government red tape, others suggested that California is a complicated place to do business, I’d assume this would be the case of doing business anywhere in Canada as well.  But this is a part I obviously don’t know much about.

 

Now for examples for why Wonderland’s situation is different. For one, being in Canada creates a unique situation, the geography of Canada makes the only real nearby large city Montreal, and that city is a primarily French speaking city, and the park there honestly isn’t that good. Now when you look at the situation involving the border, which would naturally be a deterrent not only for issues with customs, but the whole anxiety is if one had problems while across the border as a non resident. Even those who don’t care about the border, the only real park you have nearby to the GTA is Darien Lake, and like La Ronde, it’s not all that good anyways. So this leaves an interesting situation where Wonderland basically has minimal competition, and its nearest major theme park is Cedar Point if not counting Darien Lake.

[disco2000]

CGA sits on a little over 100 acres; whereas Wonderland is on over 330 acres.  Even if landlocked it has triple the space.  With attractions reaching useful life at various points, there is simply more room at Wonderland since it has more land to start.

Using that logic they should sell CP as it is locked as well.  Or KI lol.

Look at the charts posted in the thread - Wonderland is too much of a money maker to dispose of...  CGA not so much....

It would be like P&G selling off Tide...

[Kenban]

37 minutes ago, MisterSG1 said:

The exchange rate shouldn’t really change things that much because in general, prices have been higher for products here compared to in the US. For example, a game that comes out on PSN may sell for $25 in the US but be $35 in Canada. Im sure if we compared prices for Funnel Cakes for example between Wonderland and Kings Island, you’d see the dollar amount in CDN much higher than what the same product is at Kings Island.

The exchange rate matters because the park earns money in Canadian Dollars and all earnings and profits are reported in US Dollars.  While I don't have the prices for funnel cakes easily available I can compare the prices for season passes and tickets.

Every Cedar Fair park charges the same price for a platinum pass, no matter the currency.  A platinum pass at Kings Island is $240 USD, at Canada's Wonderland it is $240 CAD.  Which is why I know several people who renew their pass on Canada's Wonderlands website instead of at a US parks.  You get charged tax but the exchange rate more than makes up for the difference.

A gold pass at KI is $140 USD, at CA it's $120 CAD.  A single day ticket online is $49.99 USD or CAD.  At the gate a ticket to Kings Island is $85 USD, while Canada's Wonderland is $75 CAD.

I wish I had the prices of funnel cakes available I think you would be surprised.

[homestar92]

Canada's Wonderland is landlocked but at its current size, is still roughly the same size as Kings Island or Cedar Point. They can't expand, true, but the land they already have is more than most parks could ever DREAM of filling. Wonderland is at no risk.

[MisterSG1]

This is more or less an anomaly I guess for prices, but it seems KI is really overcharging, or CW is undercharging.

The point being, usually prices for an item in Canada are higher. The price of gate admission I know doesn’t work, but nearly everything else you’ll find being a lower amount in USD.

[MisterSG1]

23 minutes ago, disco2000 said:

CGA sits on a little over 100 acres; whereas Wonderland is on over 330 acres.  Even if landlocked it has triple the space.  With attractions reaching useful life at various points, there is simply more room at Wonderland since it has more land to start.

Using that logic they should sell CP as it is locked as well.  Or KI lol.

Look at the charts posted in the thread - Wonderland is too much of a money maker to dispose of...  CGA not so much....

It would be like P&G selling off Tide...

The difference is the real estate situation in Mason and Sandusky is night and day compared to what’s going on in the GTA. I don’t think CF would get a large amount of money for selling the land KI or CP sits on.

You’re right, Cedar Fair probably won’t sell the land, also I’m sure CF will like to see how this Fall plays out politically in Ontario regarding potential Covid restrictions, but we’ll see.

Does this 330 acres include the land which used to exist north of Major Mack? Such a missed opportunity that was, the water park should have been built up there instead.

[disco2000]

You do realize Mason has lost several golf courses (including part of one directly across the interstate that had some holes turned into housing and other holes converted to a parking lot for a tennis tourney that is only two weeks out of the year) and parks over the years as the highest and best use of the land became houses, condos, and Kroger....

Warren County's rate of housing growth is more than triple that of most other Ohio counties, including five of the six other local jurisdictions.

I know that Vaughn is growing leaps and bounds.  Last time I was there it seemed like granite counter top stores were on every corner lol and the land is filling up fast.

But anything is possible and if Vaughn commissioned a planning report and showed the highest and best use of the Wonderland property was condos and a developer could cough up the cash to make it attractive, sure, but it would be a very high number.

But that could be said for any piece of property....

I still think Wonderland is safe.  Not a comparison to what happened with CGA. 

Makes for a fun what if discussion we are having in the thread...

 

[BoddaH1994]

21 hours ago, disco2000 said:

You do realize Mason has lost several golf courses (including part of one directly across the interstate that had some holes turned into housing and other holes converted to a parking lot for a tennis tourney that is only two weeks out of the year) and parks over the years as the highest and best use of the land became houses, condos, and Kroger....

Warren County's rate of housing growth is more than triple that of most other Ohio counties, including five of the six other local jurisdictions.

I know that Vaughn is growing leaps and bounds.  Last time I was there it seemed like granite counter top stores were on every corner lol and the land is filling up fast.

But anything is possible and if Vaughn commissioned a planning report and showed the highest and best use of the Wonderland property was condos and a developer could cough up the cash to make it attractive, sure, but it would be a very high number.

But that could be said for any piece of property....

I still think Wonderland is safe.  Not a comparison to what happened with CGA. 

Makes for a fun what if discussion we are having in the thread...

 

Part of what makes KI's situation unique is that the whole area was built around the park. I feel like the loss of the park would take a way a lot of the momentum of the area. Plus the price for KI (or CW) would be extraordinarily high.

CGA dealt with land issues, parking issues, neighbor issues, high labor cost, high operating costs, tough regulations, and high taxes. They were offered about double what they paid for the land. Without knowing the whole situation, it appears to have been the correct one, at least on the surface. 

[disco2000]

33 minutes ago, BoddaH1994 said:

Part of what makes KI's situation unique is that the whole area was built around the park. I feel like the loss of the park would take a way a lot of the momentum of the area. Plus the price for KI (or CW) would be extraordinarily high.

CGA dealt with land issues, parking issues, neighbor issues, high labor cost, high operating costs, tough regulations, and high taxes. They were offered about double what they paid for the land. Without knowing the whole situation, it appears to have been the correct one, at least on the surface. 

Exactly!  KI, KD and Wonderland were basically built on farm land without much around it.

Go on top of KD Eiffel Tower present day and look around and that was pretty much the view from KI Eiffel Tower in the 70s.  The boom hasn't happened around KD like the other parks.

The land has filled in nicely around KI with homes on one side, commercial on two sides and a world class ATP stadium on the other side, yet there is still room for more growth around it.  KD has a power plant facility closeby and lots of trees LOL.

Wonderland is probably the most developed around of the 3 parks.  Tightly densed housing and commercial/retail/hospital and not much left around it.

The parks are what brought the development, so to take Wonderland away and make it more homes I would think a lot of people wouldn't be happy with that.  Why go to Vaughn if all they have is housing?  It is an international draw that the local community would want as it is people staying in hotels, dining, shopping, etc.

 

[teenageninja]

8 hours ago, disco2000 said:

Exactly!  KI, KD and Wonderland were basically built on farm land without much around it.

Go on top of KD Eiffel Tower present day and look around and that was pretty much the view from KI Eiffel Tower in the 70s.  The boom hasn't happened around KD like the other parks.

The land has filled in nicely around KI with homes on one side, commercial on two sides and a world class ATP stadium on the other side, yet there is still room for more growth around it.  KD has a power plant facility closeby and lots of trees LOL.

Wonderland is probably the most developed around of the 3 parks.  Tightly densed housing and commercial/retail/hospital and not much left around it.

The parks are what brought the development, so to take Wonderland away and make it more homes I would think a lot of people wouldn't be happy with that.  Why go to Vaughn if all they have is housing?  It is an international draw that the local community would want as it is people staying in hotels, dining, shopping, etc.

 

 

Kings Island has like 200 acres of undeveloped land as well, a lot of it isn't currently "usable" but they could parcel out some of it.

 

The ATP stadium has a gloom outlook.  The ATP wants stadiums in cities, not suburbs.  Castellini is already laying the ground work to move.

[rlentless]

What are your feelings about the 11yr lease?  Do we know what it entails?  I know some have said they will start closing the park soon.  But would it not make more sense to run normal operations 7-8 years and then do a 2 year slow down.  With the final year of closing operations.  Actually seeing how quickly they shutdown Geauga Lake, it seems they could run normal operations for 10 years.

Then the question of moving roller coasters if they run another 10 years.  Would most of them be at or nearing the end of their normal operational life cycle?  Would it still make financial sense to move a coaster with only 5-10 years left to operate.  I know the woodies can operate longer.  But I always asked myself why didn't the Big Dipper get moved?  Or The Screachin Eagle from Americana??  Too much money to move and get back in operational state?  I know both were very old and would probably need alot of TLC.  So would there be takers for Gold Striker or The Grizzly?  I personally hope they get moved so more people get to enjoy them.

Or is it better financial sense to close everything turn it into a parking lot??

[DiamondbackFan]

40 minutes ago, rlentless said:

What are your feelings about the 11yr lease?  Do we know what it entails?  I know some have said they will start closing the park soon.  But would it not make more sense to run normal operations 7-8 years and then do a 2 year slow down.  With the final year of closing operations.  Actually seeing how quickly they shutdown Geauga Lake, it seems they could run normal operations for 10 years.

It will probably be gone in 2-6 years.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000811532/78a5bf4c-e155-489d-b56b-5161d8809409.pdf

"On June 27, 2022, and as a condition to the sale of the Park, the Company entered into a lease with Prologis pursuant to which Cedar Fair, L.P., through its subsidiaries will continue to operate the Park. The lease has a six-year term, and the Company has the option to extend the term for an additional five years. The lease is subject to a right in favor of Prologis to terminate the lease early by providing at least two years’ prior notice. The annual base rent under the lease is $12,247,500 and will increase by 2.5% each year"

"(b) The Property does not include any property not listed in Section 1(a) and each of the following is explicitly excluded from the transactions contemplated by this Contract: (i) All inventory, furniture, machinery, equipment, tools, maintenance parts, computers, point-of-sale equipment, telephones, and all other tangible items of personal property; (ii) All contracts relating to Seller’s operation of the Park; (iii) Any and all governmental or quasi-governmental permits, licenses and approvals relating to the operation of the Park, including, but not limited to, environmental permits and occupational and liquor licenses; (iv) All of Seller’s, its affiliates’ or any third party’s trademarks and trademark rights, trade names and trade name rights, service marks and service mark rights, service names and service name rights, brand names, trade dress, business and product names, logos, maps, including Park maps, and slogans used or held for use in connection with the Park; (v) Rides, water slides, rollercoasters, improvements, inherently permanent structures, buildings, and underground storage tanks located on or about the Land; or (vi) Fixtures and all plumbing, gas, electrical, ventilating, lighting and other utilities and utility systems, ducts, hot water heaters, air conditioning systems and all other building systems, in each case attached to or comprising a part of any building located on or about the Land."

 

[KIBeast]

I think some rides will be moved to other parks while others will be sold or demolished. Some coasters that will not be re-located can have their trains sent to another park to be used as parts. I think the single rail coaster will be moved for sure. Not sure where, although I just watched a video on YouTube suggesting that Valley Fair may be the recipient of that coaster. They also said they did not believe their invert, flight deck, will be moved. Word has it that it only runs one train and is uniquely built to the terrain. Could be a possibility that KI may receive one of the re-located coasters. 

*disclaimer - anything stated is purely speculation by me...well, me and the dippin' dots guy

[MisterSG1]

21 hours ago, disco2000 said:

Exactly!  KI, KD and Wonderland were basically built on farm land without much around it.

Go on top of KD Eiffel Tower present day and look around and that was pretty much the view from KI Eiffel Tower in the 70s.  The boom hasn't happened around KD like the other parks.

The land has filled in nicely around KI with homes on one side, commercial on two sides and a world class ATP stadium on the other side, yet there is still room for more growth around it.  KD has a power plant facility closeby and lots of trees LOL.

Wonderland is probably the most developed around of the 3 parks.  Tightly densed housing and commercial/retail/hospital and not much left around it.

The parks are what brought the development, so to take Wonderland away and make it more homes I would think a lot of people wouldn't be happy with that.  Why go to Vaughn if all they have is housing?  It is an international draw that the local community would want as it is people staying in hotels, dining, shopping, etc.

 

I know Wonderland helped spur the development in the GTA, and shifted the focus to development at the time in Vaughan and York Region rather than Durham Region (which is east of Toronto proper) was the plan at the time. 

Wonderland is easily the most developed of the three parks by far. I’m not trying to be arrogant, but you honestly can’t compare the situation in Mason/Cincy to Vaughan/Toronto. (yes Vaughan had an A in it) growth has exploded since the late 70s in what we now call the GTA (Greater Toronto Area). In 1980 when Wonderland opened, we were around 3 million or so, now we are easily over 7 (as there’s different definitions of what the GTA is) Cincy is about a third of that I think, just over 2 million.

First thing to consider, not far from the park, a few miles down the road is a subway station which opened in 2017, this has made the area extremely valuable for land and high density housing like high rise condo buildings at least 30 floors high each are popping up all over the area.

The Colossus movie theatre, the first one in Canada boasted 19 screens and still stands, I know not the same thing as a theme park, but that site of the theatre may be replaced by condos.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/03/massive-redevelopment-planned-spaceship-shaped-theatre-north-toronto/
 

This kind of development happening to the Wonderland site, might not seem so shocking as it can be seen as a better use of land.

Back in 2005, the Ontario government imposed a green belt which roughly surrounds the GTA, the idea of this is to discourage endless suburbia, which means the only solution sadly will be for them to build upwards. I’m not exactly a fan of this either, and it probably won’t be until the early 2030s when all the area outside the green belt is used (and I hope to be out of the GTA forever by then hopefully)

 

As for ATP and suburbs, interestingly a week before the tournament in Cincy, we share the Canadian Open with Montreal (men in one venue and women in the other, alternate each year), and the Toronto tournament takes place on the York University which is literally on the border of Toronto and Vaughan (and also fairly close to Wonderland, both close to Jane Street)
 

Is Wonderland really an international draw though, it may be the GTA’s most visited attraction. But also, Disneyland Paris is the most visited attraction in the Paris area. In Wonderland, it has the deal of being the only real theme park in Canada, and how many people outside of maybe people on this site would be willing to make the trip there? A place like KI and CP are more of tourist parks because they have rides tbat could be considered attractions. It’s why I asked my parents who go nowhere to go to KI in 2004, because I wanted to ride The Beast and Son of Beast.

One last point, where the hospital sits, that actually WAS wonderland property originally to my knowledge. I do wonder if Frontier Canada opened as planned originally, if they would have considered building Splash Works up there…

[disco2000]

7 hours ago, MisterSG1 said:

....In Wonderland, it has the deal of being the only real theme park in Canada...

Because of your statement alone, why would Canada want to lose that attraction and associated property taxes, payroll taxes, out of towner spending to the community?  Sure some of that is recouped once housing goes in, but then there is lost revenue of out of town spending, which can be significant.

You underestimate how much of an international draw Wonderland is.  Look how many come from overseas to experience Niagara Falls and New York, etc.  Since they are international visitors, they already have the credentials to enter the US and Canada and in about 2 hours they can be at Wonderland.  And maybe they visit Toronto and take in a ballgame or other event going on there.  And then from that they are about six hours to Cedar Point.  Maybe it was an anomoly, but in every visit I made to Wonderland, talking to people in line most were not from Canada or the US, they were from other countries.  Had a wonderful discussion with a family from Germany.  Shared with them the rich German history of Cincinnati and joked about the lack of German food in the FestHaus lol.  Spoke to many from India that were coming to the US to visit their children at a University in the states.  Talk to a few from Australia.  And a whole host of others from other European countries.  Did speak to one local that could tell where I was from based on my accent LOL.

But even if it wasn't an international draw, a park drawing 3-4million visitors per year would be a significant loss to the local community.

And why would CF want to get out of that "monopoly" that is basically a cash cow for them?   As long as the financial terms are beneficial and CF continues to basically have a "monopoly" on the theme park industry in Canada, it isn't going anywhere.

Comparing a 25 acre movie theater site to a 300+acre Amusement park is a stretch.  There was a movie theater across from KI that is now a church.  Is KI next?  The movie theater industry has been on a slow decline for years and covid certainly didn't help.  This proposed 25 acre sale probably reflects that the owner can make more selling it than continuing to operate it.  Top Gun and a few others have brought a resurgance back to movie theaters lately and time will tell if that can be sustained, but consumer habits have been going more to on-demand streaming services.  Kinda hard to replicate the amusement park experience in your home LOL.

Glad to see you do realize Mason is considered part of the Greater Cincinnati Area....and by every Chamber of Commerce in the region, KI is considered a significant asset for the entire region, just as I would believe Wonderland would be to its community.  Believe me I get your point that the development around Wonderland has far outpaced what happens around KI and for likely what you said vertical development versus horizontal single family homes.

Sure anything is possible, and a future government master plan could end up showing that the highest and best use of Wonderland property is for housing, but I would be shocked if that happens anytime soon.  Highest and best use designation takes into consideration all the social-economic aspects of the region, not just that piece of land in isolation.  

And then of course once the highest and best use designation for a piece of property is different than what the land is currently being used for, you then need not only a willing seller, but a willing buyer.

Unless Wonderland completely falls off the profitability chart, I would be shocked if a developer could pay enough to buy the property and recoup the purchase price into whatever they did with the land...I guess it is possible with vertical construction, but then you would have to deal with zone changes, greenspace, etc. and I do not know if the neighbors would be supportive of that all becoming high rise housing?

I guess time will tell if your fears are justified!

 

[Kenban]

Let’s look at this in actual numbers what would the land have to be worth to consider closing the park?  The parks earnings in the last year that I have available appears to be around 50 million a year USD, based on current exchange rates that’s roughly 65 million CAD.  Typically a standard multiplier would be around 15.  If the chain considers the park having good growth potential it would be higher than that, if they feel it does not it could be a little lower.  At 15 your looking at $975 million CAD or roughly 750 million USD.  At 20 it would be 1.3 billion Canadian dollars.

The $310 million USD price for CGA is actually a multiplier around 40, which would put the land price at CW over 2 billion.

I have a hard time believing a company would offer the $1+ billion dollars to buy the land it would cost to justify selling.

[MisterSG1]

13 minutes ago, Kenban said:

Let’s look at this in actual numbers what would the land have to be worth to consider closing the park?  The parks earnings in the last year that I have available appears to be around 50 million a year USD, based on current exchange rates that’s roughly 65 million CAD.  Typically a standard multiplier would be around 15.  If the chain considers the park having good growth potential it would be higher than that, if they feel it does not it could be a little lower.  At 15 your looking at $975 million CAD or roughly 750 million USD.  At 20 it would be 1.3 billion Canadian dollars.

The $310 million USD price for CGA is actually a multiplier around 40, which would put the land price at CW over 2 billion.

I have a hard time believing a company would offer the $1+ billion dollars to buy the land it would cost to justify selling.

I’ll reply to disco tomorrow as it’s getting late.

 

But suppose wonderland is offered for 2 billion, let’s assume we have a condo building in which the units sell at 1 million on average, if you have 10 units per floor and a building thats 30 floors, in just one building you have made 300 million bucks. Consider that pic I showed of Colossus and the intense condo community there, imagine what you could do with wonderland’s space, it’s not a stretch to say a developer could easily fit 5,000 units in the property, thats 5 billion back right there.

[BeeastFarmer]

9 hours ago, MisterSG1 said:

I’ll reply to disco tomorrow as it’s getting late.

 

But suppose wonderland is offered for 2 billion, let’s assume we have a condo building in which the units sell at 1 million on average, if you have 10 units per floor and a building thats 30 floors, in just one building you have made 300 million bucks. Consider that pic I showed of Colossus and the intense condo community there, imagine what you could do with wonderland’s space, it’s not a stretch to say a developer could easily fit 5,000 units in the property, thats 5 billion back right there.

Slow down there, Hoss.  They sell the park for 2 billion to a developer.  The developer has to spend money to get zoning approval, permits etc.  They pay taxes on the land while its under development.  Massive remediation on the land.  Surveying.  Utility work.  And finally, years later, they can go vertical.  The market may or may not have dropped.  And it costs alot of money to build.